The first and third asymptotic distributions of extremes as applied to the seismic source regions of India and adjacent areas

The seismic source regions are identified on the basis of spatial and temporal distributions of shocks (1900–1989), recurrence relations and the tectonic architecture of the Indian subcontinent and adjoining areas. The probable occurrence of the maximum magnitude earthquake is estimated using the theory of extreme values of Gumbel. The parameters of the first and third asymptotic distributions of extremes and their uncertainty values are computed for the seven identified seismic source regions of India and adjacent areas. The third-type distribution curve is preferable to the first type in all the regions, as revealed by the χ² test. The results of the third asymptotic distribution indicate the upper bound to earthquake magnitude w is equal to 8.94 ± 0.21 for Assam, 8.56 ± 0.29 for Bihar-Nepal, 8.43 ± 0.10 for Kangra, 8.97 ± 0.27 for Hindukush, 7.61 ± 0.24 for Pakistan-Cutch, 7.34 ± 0.12 for Koyna and 8.98 ± 0.27 for Andaman Sea seismic source regions. The predicted most probable largest earthquake magnitude is computed for return periods of 10, 20, 50, 75 and 100 yr in each source region.     

Seasonal, Geographical and Size Differences in Oxygen Consumption, Digestive Gland and Gills in Carcinus maenas (L), a Study of Condition for Ecologists

Abstract. The excited rate of oxygen consumption, and the wet weights of the digestive gland and the gills were studied in relation to overall size. One experiment was made in Roscoff, France, one in Portaferry, N. Ireland, and three in Wicklow, Ireland. Higher levels of oxygen consumption were found in Roscoff together with greater gill weight. Seasonal changes in the level of oxygen consumption in Wicklow may be influenced by the dry wt/wet wt ratio of the gills - probably an index of condition for the crabs as a whole. The power functions for allometric growth were virtually constant for each factor in all five experiments. All levels of factors were reduced in males weighing more than 60 g. Disproportions in the weights of the chelae marked the populations in Roscoff and Portaferry, compared with Wicklow. These suggest a genetic basis for the geographical differences in oxygen consumption and gill weight. The importance of local experiments for local conditions and the possibilities for predicting physiological rates from morphology are discussed.     

Modelling linear wave transformation induced by dissipative structures—Regular waves

A numerical model of the modified time-independent mild-slope equation for linear waves over a rapidly changing finite porous bed is presented. In this solution the reflection and phase coefficient shift are solved implicitly. Boundaries are assumed to be open, partially reflecting, or fully absorbing through the second-order parabolic approximation. Discretisation of the governing equation and boundary conditions is by means of a second-order accurate central difference scheme. The resulting sparse-banded matrix is solved using an inexpensive banded solver with Gaussian elimination. The model has been validated and the numerical predictions are in excellent agreement with analytical solutions.     

3D Hybrid Ray-FD and DWN-FD Seismic Modeling for Simple Models Containing Complex Local Structures

Hybrid approaches find broad applications wherever all-in-one modelling of source, path, and site effects is too expensive. Our new 3D hybrid approach allows to compute the seismic wavefield in elastic isotropic models containing a complex local structure embedded in a large, but considerably simpler, regional structure. The hybrid modelling is realized in two successive steps.In the 1^st step, the ray or discrete wave number (DWN) method is used to compute the seismic wavefield due to the source and simple regional structure. The complex local structure is not present. Thus, the excitation contains the source and regional path effects. The time history of this wavefield (excitation), recorded at the points of so called excitation box, is stored on a disk. The excitation box envelopes a small portion of a computational domain.The 2^nd step of the hybrid method, now containing the complex local structure, is computed by finite differences (FD) inside the excitation box and its close vicinity. The excitation from the 1^st step is now used to inject the 1^st step wavefield into the 2^nd step computation. After that, the hybrid combination of the 1^st and 2^nd steps contains the source, regional path, and local structure effects at reasonably lower computational costs than in case of all-in-one modelling.The 3D ray-FD method is tested on models in which the locally complex structure is the well-known Volvi lake basin, embedded in various 1D structures. The wavefield is excited by the point source situated outside the basin. Although the structure outside the excitation box may be less dimensional (2D, 1D, homogeneous), the whole problem is actually 3D due to the 3D features of the structure inside the excitation box, 3D shape of the excitation box, and arbitrary source — excitation-box configuration. Simple (1D) structures outside the excitation box allow for comparison with the alternative hybrid DWN-FD results. However the ray method is suitable for computation of 3D regional structures outside the excitation box. The results from both approaches show a very good agreement for realistic crustal and local structural models.     

Simulation of digital earthquake accelerograms using the inverse discrete Fourier transform

Acceleration time histories of horizontal earthquake ground motion are obtained by inverting the discrete Fourier transform, which is defined by modelling the probability distribution of the Fourier phase differences conditional on the Fourier amplitude. The Fourier amplitude spectrum is modelled as a scaled, lognormal probability density function. Three parameters are necessary to define the Fourier amplitude spectrum. They are the total energy of the accelerogram, the central frequency, and the spectral bandwidth. The Fourier phase differences are simulated conditional on the Fourier amplitudes. The amplitudes are classified into three categories: small, intermediate and large. For each amplitude category, a beta distribution or a combination of a beta distribution and a uniform distribution are defined for the phase differences. Seven parameters are needed to completely define the phase difference distributions: two for each of the three beta distributions, and the weight of the uniform distribution for phase differences corresponding to small Fourier amplitudes. Approximately 300 uniformly processed horizontal ground motion records from recent California earthquakes are used to develop prediction formulas for the model parameters, as well as to validate the simulation model. The moment magnitude of the earthquakes ranges from 5.8 to 7.3. The source to site distance for all the records is less than 100 km. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气候变化下上海市降水问题

利用上海市10个地方气象站1961―2010年逐日降水数据以及高精度下垫面资料,综合使用累积距平、滑动平均、线性倾向估计、SDSM、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法系统分析了近50年来上海市区、近郊区和远郊区降水指标年际、季节变化特征,并基于ArcGIS空间分析,结合适合上海本地的极端降水阈值,研究了上海市雨洪灾害高危险区域的空间分布。结果发现：研究区降水强度有增强趋势,主要表现在暴雨量级以下降水频次变少,但是总量增多,且暴雨与大暴雨以上量级降水频次增多,市区、近郊区和远郊区响应时间与幅度差异明显;研究区夏季、冬季降水呈显著增加趋势,5 a滑动降水量年递增率分别达到56.23和16.71 mm/10 a,春季和秋季降水呈不显著下降趋势;黄浦江上游地区极端降水发生频次较高,极端降水引发的雨洪灾害高危险区域主要集中在黄浦江上游以及入海口等地。     

盘锦台三种测氡仪的对比分析

以盘锦台盘一井氡观测的三种仪器为基础,详细阐述了其观测原理、观测方法、影响因素、数据质量与分析,结合实际观测情况分析其观测的差异性,并对其映震效能进行分析,结果表明:盘一井溶解氡比气氡能更好地反映地下应力应变的变化。FD-105K测氡仪的观测资料映震性较好,FD-125型氡钍分析器和SD-3A型自动测氡仪更适应地震监测预报研究的需要,但其观测成果还要时间的验证。     

The driving effect of informal economies on urbanization in China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - This paper examines the rise of informal economies in China, a hidden driving force overlooked in studies on China’s urbanization. Estimating the size of...     

Spatial differences and multi-mechanism of carbon footprint based on GWR model in provincial China

Global warming has been one of the major concerns behind the world’s high-speed economic growth. How to implement the coordinated development of the carbon footprint and the economy will be the core issue of the world’s economic and social development, as well as the heated debate of the research at home and abroad in recent years. Based on the energy consumption, integrated with the “Top-Down” life cycle approach and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, this paper analyzed the spatial differences and multi-mechanism of carbon footprint in provincial China in 2010. Firstly, this study calculated the amount of carbon footprint of each province using “Top-Down” life cycle approach and found that there were significant differences of carbon footprint and per capita carbon footprint in provincial China. The provinces with higher carbon footprint, mainly located in northern China, have large economic scales; the provinces with higher per capita carbon footprint are mainly distributed in central cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and energy-rich regions and heavy chemical bases. Secondly, with the aid of GIS and spatial analysis model (GWR model), this paper had unfolded that the expansion of economic scale is the main driver of the rapid growth of carbon footprint. The growth of population and urbanization also acted as promoting factors for the increase of the carbon footprint. Energy structure had no considerable promoting effect for the increase of the carbon footprint. Improving energy efficiency is the most important factor to inhibit the growing carbon footprint. Thirdly, developing low-carbon economies and low-carbon industries, as well as advocating low-carbon city construction and improving carbon efficiency would be the primary approaches to inhibit the rapid growth of carbon footprint. Moderately controlling the economic scale and population size would also be required to alleviate carbon footprint. Meanwhile, environmental protection and construction of low-carbon cities would evoke extensive attention in the process of urbanization.