Statistical characterization of frost zones: Case of tea freeze damage in the Kenyan highlands

Frequent frost occurrences in the Kenyan highlands have had devastating effects on agricultural productivity. With inadequate management systems to mitigate the impacts, farmers have often had to bear the burden of losses resulting from frost damage. While agriculture in Kenya remains dependent on weather and climate, the agricultural economy of Kenya continues to suffer, underscoring the need for building local knowledge as basis for development of early warning systems. The current paper attempts to delineate frost zones by statistically characterizing them based on known risk factors related to topography (elevation, convexity, aspect, upslope flow length) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Through binary logistic regression, a logistic regression model was developed utilizing observation data (frost occurrence and non-occurrence) as a binary dependent variable to estimate the probability of frost occurrence. Assuming a 0.5 probability cut-off threshold between frost occurrence and non-occurrence, an overall accuracy of 81% with area under Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curve of 0.88 was obtained. No evidence of lack of model fit was detected. This model outperforms the currently operational model that utilizes MODIS LST alone to detect frost zones in the Kenyan tea plantations. It provides an improved method for effective delineation of frost zones by incorporating local topographic characteristics.     

基于“数字湖州”的规划管理信息系统建设

随着城市建设任务增大,如何以新技术、新方法构建管理信息系统协助城市规划的高效管理一直是人们研究的热点问题。本文以湖州市规划管理信息系统的建设为例,阐述了基于"数字湖州"在线地图调用的可行性,并以此为基础开发建设了服务规划管理全流程的城市规划管理信息系统。     

Groundwater dating with 3H and SF6 in relation to mixing patterns,transport modelling and hydrochemistry

A comprehensive study of a sandy aquifer of deltaic origin in southern Poland included water chemistry, isotopes, dissolved trace gases and transport modelling. Tritium, sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) and freons (F‐11, F‐12 and F‐113) showed the presence of modern waters in the recharge areas and shallow confined parts of the aquifer. The presence of older Holocene waters farther from the recharge areas was indicated by lack of ³H, SF₆ contents ≤0·02 fmol l⁻¹ and relatively low ¹⁴C values. The discharge from the system is by upward seepage in the valley of a major river. Pre‐Holocene waters of a cooler climate, identified on the basis of δ¹⁸O, δ²H, ¹⁴C, Ne and Ar data, were found in some distant wells. Concentrations of N₂, Ne and Ar determined by gas chromatography were used for calculating the noble gas temperatures, air excess needed for correction of SF₆, and nitrogen content released by denitrification process. The time series of ³H content available for some wells supplied quantitative information on age distributions and the total mean ages of flow through the unsaturated and saturated zones. The derived ³H age distributions turned out to be very wide, with mean values in the range of about 30 to 160 years. For each well with determined ³H age, the SF₆ data showed either a lower age range or the possibility of a lower age as expected due to shorter travel times of SF₆ through the unsaturated zone, which most probably also resulted in different types of age distributions of these tracers. Freons appeared to be of little use for individual age determinations. A quantitative estimation of two‐component mixing from SF₆ ³H relations is not possible unless the travel time of ³H through the unsaturated zone is comparable to that of SF₆. The ratio of integrals of the response function over the age range with tracer and the whole response function yields the ratio of water with tracer to total flow of water. That ratio is a tracer‐dependent function of time. Transport modelling of SF₆ tracer done with MT3D code yielded initially large discrepancies between calculated and measured tracer concentrations. Some discrepancies remained even after calibration of the transport model with SF₆. Simulation of tritium contents with a calibrated transport model yielded reasonable agreement with measured contents in some wells and indicated a need for further investigations, particularly in the eastern part of the aquifer. The existence of distinct hydrochemical zones is consistent with the tracer data; young waters with measurable ³H and SF₆ contents are aerobic and of HCO₃ Ca or HCO₃ SO₄ Ca types. Slightly elevated Na and Cl contents, as well as the highest concentrations of SO₄ and NO₃ within this zone are due to anthropogenic influences. Anaerobic conditions prevail in the far field, under the confining cover, where pre‐bomb era Holocene waters dominate. In that zone, dissolved oxygen, NO₃ and U contents are reduced, and Fe, Mn and NH₄ contents increase. In the third zone, early Holocene and glacial waters occur. They are of HCO₃ Ca Na or HCO₃ Na types, with TDS values higher than 1 g l⁻¹ and Na content higher than 200 mg l⁻¹, due to either small admixtures of ascending or diffusing older water or freshening of marine sediments, a process that is probably occurring till the present time. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Petrology, geochronology, and tectonics of shear zones in the Zermatt–Saas and Combin zones of the Western Alps

Metre to tens‐of‐metre wide, steeply dipping, greenschist facies shear zones that cut blueschists and eclogites of the Combin and Zermatt–Saas Zones at Täschalp and in adjacent areas of the western Alps were sites of extensive recrystallization driven by fluid flow and deformation. Rb–Sr data imply that these shear zones formed at 42–37 Ma with a systematic younging of structures northward toward, and into, the hangingwall of the Mischabel Structure. Shearing commenced at 400–475 °C and 400–500 MPa and continued as pressures and temperatures fell to 300–350 °C and 300–350 MPa. Individual shear zones were active for 2–3 Myr with later lower grade stages of shearing concentrated into narrow zones. Fluids that infiltrated the shear zones were water rich (X_H2O > 0.9). Alteration zones around albite veins and at the margins of serpentinite bodies are penecontemporaneous with these shear zones and formed at approximately the same conditions. The eclogites were exhumed from c. 64 km at 44 Ma to 14–16 km at 42–41 Ma implying exhumation rates of 2–5 cm yr^?1. Rapid exhumation was probably achieved by extension aided by buoyancy, following subduction of continental crust, and rapid erosion. The shear zones form part of a regional‐scale extensional system responsible for a significant portion of the exhumation of the subducted oceanic crust.     

海南国际旅游岛数字地理空间框架建设与应用

数字城市和数字省区相互之间既有明确的层次关系,同时共性中又有着个性。本文首先简单介绍海南国际旅游岛数字地理空间框架建设的总体架构,重点阐述框架建设项目的主要建设情况以及推广应用情况。     

福建安溪潘田矿区矿坑涌水量预测方法评述

安溪潘田大理岩、铁矿区属岩溶承压水类型,矿坑涌水量预测通过放水试验及持续排水疏千方法,采用泰斯恢复法和比拟法进行论证。     

冷水坑银矿田成矿条件及矿床特征

冷水坑中生代陆相火山-次火山岩型银矿田的成矿地质条件,着重论述矿田层控叠加型、斑岩型矿床的分布规律、物质组分、矿化分带等基本地质特征。