不同人口流动模式下城市传染病时空传播模型适用性研究

空间显式传染病传播模型由于能够较好地模拟城市内部的传染病传播过程,在城市疫情防控中得到了广泛应用。但现有的空间显式模型大多按照人口随机流动模式来模拟城市人口流动行为,未考虑城市中以通勤为主的人口流动模式。本文以长沙市的2014年第1～49周手足口病传播过程为例,将4、8、24邻域扩散以及重力模型、辐射模型共5种不同的人口流动模式与周期SEIR动力学模型结合建立起五种传染病传播模型,并通过比较模型时间和空间精度来明确不同人口流动模式应用在城市内传染病时空传播模拟中的各自优势和适用范围。实验结果表明：每种人口流动模式在城市内传染病时空传播模拟中都有其使用前提和适用范围。基于24邻域扩散的传播模型对手足口病病例数拟合精度最高(RMSE_spatial＿ts=0.58,RMSE_spatial＿st=0.95),基于重力模型的传播模型对城市内部传染病时空传播模拟中的传播趋势的模拟精度最高(r_spatial＿ts=0.46,r_spatial＿st=0.39),且对长沙市人口相对稠密区域(格网常住人口数大于第三四分...     

泥石流危险范围预测模型及在昆明东川城区的应用

结合泥石流危险范围模型实验数据,运用多元回归分析方法探讨了泥石流危险范围预测,并进行了误差分析。以昆明市东川城区后山3条泥石流沟为例,运用该模型对其危险范围进行了预测分析,为东川城区泥石流防灾提供了科学依据。     

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC REFORMS ON THE URBAN ECONOMY OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

The impact of recent economic reforms in China on Chinese cities has influenced both the rate and spatial pattern of their development. In this research, three groups of cities are analyzed: those in special economic zones, opened coastal cities, and inland provincial level capital cities. Eighteen variables were selected to determine the impact of the reforms. Major conclusions of the research are: (1) current urban reforms deviate sharply from earlier socialist Chinese practice; (2) urban growth has responded strongly and positively to the economic activities advocated by the urban reforms (e.g., foreign investment, foreign trade, individual entrepreneurship, and development of a market economy); and (3) urban reforms have resulted in distinctly different spatial impacts among the three types of cities, with those in the special economic zones and in the coastal areas benefitting more than inland cities.     

基于高铁网络的中国省会城市经济可达性

基于列车时刻表中的省会城市间交通时间以及相应票价数据和各省市城镇居民家庭人均收入数据,以铁路服务价格、城镇居民消费铁路服务能力两方面为突破口,分析高铁网络对中国省会城市经济可达性的影响。结果表明：① 高铁网络不同程度地提升了省会城市铁路服务价格,降低了铁路服务价格与时间可达性的相关性,同时改变了铁路服务价格的分布格局。② 城镇居民消费铁路服务能力等级差异明显,其中收入水平发挥着决定性作用,而铁路服务价格的影响也不容忽视。③ 高铁网络缩小了“所有城市”铁路服务价格、铁路服务消费能力分布的不公平性,但扩大了“高铁城市”铁路服务价格、铁路服务消费能力分布的不公平性;铁路服务消费能力分布的不公平程度高于铁路服务价格分布的不公平程度。     

Governing a city of unicorns: technology capital and the urban politics of San Francisco

San Francisco is now widely considered to be the most important city in the world for the location of new technology start-up firms, especially high valuation “unicorns,” and is increasingly seen as both a locational and metaphorical extension of Silicon Valley. In this paper, I trace some of the political strategies and tensions that have accompanied the city’s prominence in this area, and in particular the distinctive role of technology and venture capital in the political economy of urban development. The paper has four empirical sections. It describes (1) the political machinations surrounding the 2011 and 2015 municipal elections, which saw the election of Ed Lee as Mayor with significant support from individual technology investors such as Ron Conway and Marc Benioff, and accompanied by various “tech-friendly” policy shifts; (2) the foundation of the “tech chamber of commerce” sf.citi as a means of enhancing the policy influence of the tech industry in San Francisco; (3) the introduction of a low taxation regime in the city’s Central Market area that has attracted technology companies such as Twitter as tenants; and (4) the urban policy tensions associated with the evolution of new “sharing economy” firms such as Uber and Airbnb, which have aggressively challenged municipal regulations in the taxi and property rental fields. Throughout these machinations, we can see a reshaping of capital fractions, with venture and angel capital increasingly involved in reengineering the labor, housing, and public transport markets of the city in order to circumvent the accumulation problems that tech investors had suffered in the earlier dot.com failures.     

关于世界城市研究的两场争论及其对相关研究的影响

20世纪80年代以来",世界城市"成为城市研究领域的热点话题。在迄今30年的研究过程中,2000年前后发生的针对世界城市经典理论的两场学术争论具有里程碑意义:①关于世界城市发展动力和类型的争论;②关于世界城市发展历史的争论。通过争论,凝聚了学界共识,引发了本研究领域逐步从论证经济全球化对城市重构的作用转向讨论城市全球化的多样路径。两场争论之后,"世界城市政治"和"世界城市历史"的讨论成为新世纪两个重要的研究方向。本文回顾了经典世界城市理论以及对其的早期批评,详细介绍了两场争论及其引发的两种研究方向,并在此基础上提出了对中国世界城市研究的启示。     

Moscow, the global city? The position of the Russian capital within the European system of metropolitan areas

During the 1990s, the city of Moscow was subject to an extraordinary transformation in its political, economic and social structures, which had consequences for the position of Moscow within the national and international hierarchy of cities. This article is concerned with the trends that can be discerned regarding the position of Moscow on the national and European scales. Without a doubt, the development of Moscow is characterized by an increasing separation from the national urban system and a growing international orientation. The Russian capital has no competitors on the national level: measured against the relevant economic indicators it is a long way ahead of the remaining Russian cities, which are primarily integrated into national and regional economic flows, and participate in the global economy only to a limited degree. Moscow, in contrast, is increasingly striving to integrate itself into transnational and international economic structures. Although the concept of Moscow as a global city is often instrumentalized in municipal politics, the ability of the Russian capital to act as a global centre is in fact limited. At present Moscow's most important function, from a Central European perspective, is to act as a bridging link between Central and Western Europe and Russia. There is a danger that the spatial disparities between Moscow on the one hand, and the remaining Russian cities and regions on the other, will continue to grow.     

基于流强度的中国城市对外服务能力时空演变特征

综合运用城市流强度模型、改良Theil系数和K-means时空聚类法对2004~2010年中国地级以上286个城市对外服务能力的时空演变特征进行探讨,得到以下结论:1城市流强度值的绝对量均有明显上升,但存在显著的区域非均衡现象,并与城市经济实力有较高的相关性。2省内差异对城市对外服务能力的差异贡献率在58%~72%,是其空间尺度差异的主要来源。3时空演变表现出明显的阶段性和等级性规律,且空间等级性特征随阶段演进更趋明显。4对外服务能力的强弱和集聚强化趋势与城市流强度基数值大小和增速快慢有着紧密关系,一定程度上体现了基础乘数效应和循环累积效应配置下的非均衡特征。     

中国城市投资环境竞争力动态分析与评估

在阐述城市投资环境研究意义的基础上,建立了城市投资环境竞争力的评价指标体系.运用主成分分析法和聚类分析法,以1997,2003,2005年为研究本底年,对全国35个主要城市投资环境竞争力进行了动态分析与评估.结果表明:中国城市投资环境竞争力总体水平不高且具有明显的区域差异特征,制约投资环境竞争力的因素主要是经济和社会等软环境;按照中国主要城市投资环境竞争力的差异可分为优秀、良好、中等、差等4种类型,不同城市在不同年份其类型有所变化,但大部分类型变化不大;根据投资环境竞争力相对强度和增长强度大小可将中国主要城市投资环境竞争力演化类型分为稳步增长型、快速增长型、潜在增长型、缓慢增长型4种.     

河南省城市空气质量特征与污染防治对策

根据《河南省主要城市空气质量日报》公布的数据资料,对河南省15个主要城市的空气质量进行了统计分析,总结出其主要城市的空气污染特征及其成因,提出了空气污染防治对策。