Dynamic nucleation process of shallow earthquake faulting in a fault zone

Two distinct phases are commonly observed at the initial part of seismograms of large shallow earthquakes: low-frequency and low-amplitude waves following the onset of a P wave ( P ₁) are interrupted by the arrival of the second impulsive phase P₂ enriched with high-frequency components. This observation suggests that a large shallow earthquake involves two qualitatively different stages of rupture at its nucleation.
We propose a theoretical model that can naturally explain the above nucleation behaviour. The model is 2-D and the deformation is assumed to be anti-plane. A key clement in our model is the assumption of a zone in which numbers of pre-existing cracks are densely distributed; this cracked zone is a model for the fault zone. Dynamic crack growth nucleated in such a zone is intensely affected by the crack interactions, which exert two conflicting effects: one tends to accelerate the crack growth, and the other tends to decelerate it. The accelerating and decelerating effects are generally ascribable to coplanar and non-coplanar crack interactions, respectively. We rigorously treat the multiple interactions among the cracks, using the boundary integral equation method (BIEM), and assume the critical stress fracture criterion for the analysis of spontaneous crack propagation.
Our analysis shows that a dynamic rupture nucleated in the cracked zone begins to grow slowly due to the relative predominance of non-coplanar interactions. This process radiates the P₁ phase. If the crack continues to grow, coalescence with adjacent coplanar cracks occurs after a short time. Then, coplanar interactions suddenly begin to prevail and crack growth is accelerated; the P₂ phase is emitted in this process. It is interpreted that the two distinct phases appear in the process of the transition from non-coplanar to coplanar interaction predominance.     

腾格里沙漠东南缘降尘粒度特征和沉积速率

从多年降尘实测资料入手，分析了粉尘粒度特征、沉积速率和时变过程。提出了气象要素相关估测模型．确定０．２５ｍｍ为本区粉尘沉积粒径上限。周围沙漠是粉尘沉积细砂部分的尘源，粉砂和粘土部分沉积来自一个较大的时空范围，二者几乎各占降尘量的１／２。研究区年平均粉尘沉积速率４３５８ｋｇ／ｈｍ２，每年５月的季风转期具有年内最大沉积速率。     

Recovering magnetic susceptibility from electromagnetic data over a one-dimensional earth

While the inversion of electromagnetic data to recover electrical conductivity has received much attention, the inversion of those data to recover magnetic susceptibility has not been fully studied. In this paper we invert frequency-domain electromagnetic (EM) data from a horizontal coplanar system to recover a 1-D distribution of magnetic susceptibility under the assumption that the electrical conductivity is known. The inversion is carried out by dividing the earth into layers of constant susceptibility and minimizing an objective function of the susceptibility subject to fitting the data. An adjoint Green's function solution is used in the calculation of sensitivities, and it is apparent that the sensitivity problem is driven by three sources. One of the sources is the scaled electric field in the layer of interest, and the other two, related to effective magnetic charges, are located at the upper and lower boundaries of the layer. These charges give rise to a frequency-independent term in the sensitivities. Because different frequencies penetrate to different depths in the earth, the EM data contain inherent information about the depth distribution of susceptibility. This contrasts with static field measurements, which can be reproduced by a surface layer of magnetization. We illustrate the effectiveness of the inversion algorithm on synthetic and field data and show also the importance of knowing the background conductivity. In practical circumstances, where there is no a priori information about conductivity distribution, a simultaneous inversion of EM data to recover both electrical conductivity and susceptibility will be required.     

A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

南天山蛇绿混杂岩和中天山南缘糜棱岩的40Ar/39Ar年龄及其大地构造意义

 ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar同位素年龄测定,获得南天山蛇绿混杂岩基质黑云母石英片岩单矿物黑云母的两个坪年龄分别为(370.0±4.8)Ma和(259.0±3.3)Ma;中天山南缘长英质糜棱岩单矿物黑云母的坪年龄为(250.5±7.9)Ma,二云母花岗岩单矿物白云母的坪年龄为(348.9±0.3)Ma。结合南天山古生代沉积特征和塔里木及伊犁-哈萨克斯坦板块古地磁数据的综合分析,提出南天山晚泥盆世至石炭纪早期完成向伊犁-哈萨克斯坦板块的B型俯冲,中-晚二叠世进行陆内A型俯冲造山的板块碰撞演化模式。     

古元古代变质作用及其构造成因模式综述

以Ｐ－Ｔ－ｔ轨迹为手段，有助于探讨变质作用随大地构造演化或变迁而动态演化的特点，本文主要讨论了古元古代普遍出现的低压高温变质作用、高压高温变质作用及其Ｐ－Ｔ－ｔ轨迹，而且讨论了高压低温变质作用在古元古代很少出现的原因。在此基础上，综述了以上各类变质作用的各种可能的构造成因模式。     

Preliminary seismic hazard maps of Slovenia

The preparation of the preliminary seismic hazard maps of the territory of Slovenia has been based on an expansion of the basic approach laid out by Cornell in 1968. Three seismic source models were prepared. Two of them are based mainly on the earthquake catalogue using the Poissonian probability model. A map of seismic energy release and a map of earthquake epicenter density are used to delineate seismic sources in these models. The geometry of the third model which is based on a rough estimate of seismotectonic setting is taken from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of a nuclear power plant in Slovenia. Published ground motion attenuation models based on strong motion records of recent strong earthquakes in Italy are used. Test maps for variable and uniform b-values are presented. The computer program, Seisrisk III, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is used.     

A physical statistical approach to erosion

Erosion is a complex process consisting of many components such as surface runoff, impact of raindrops, wind forces, soil and rock mechanics, etc. Trying to integrate all these processes into a physical model seems to be hopeless. In order to understand the variety of natural shapes and patterns produced by erosion we present an integrated statistical approach. Our model is based on simple physical constraints for the separation of amalgamated particles (abrasion) and for the movement of loose particles (denudation) and on the laws of statistics. After some simplifications, we obtain a nonlinear system of partial differential equations which is solved using finite volume techniques. The model is suitable for the formation of different types of rill systems and the episodic behaviour of erosion processes, a kind of self-organized criticality. Besides effects of inhomogeneities, e.g. the formation of terraces can be investigated.     

计算样本相似性在油气预测中的应用

介绍了计算样本相似性方法在油气预测中的应用的基本原理和技术。提出了利用参数的显著性进行参数优化和加权的方法。该方法简单、实用，并在塔北某区的应用取得了满意结果。由此证明了该方法的有效性及在综合信息预测工作中进行参数优化和加权工作的重要性。