Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques

The Jerte Valley is anortheast-southwest tending graben located in the mountainous region of west central Spain (Spanish Central System). Mass movements have been a predominant shaping process on the Valley slopes during the Quaternary. Present day activity is characterized as either `first-time failure' (shallow debris slides and debris flows) or `reactivations' of pre-existing landslides deposits.A delineation of landslide hazard zoningwithin the Valley has been carried out by using the detailed documentation of a particular event (a debris slide and a sequel torrential flood, which occurred on the Jubaguerra stream gorge), and GIS techniques. The procedure has had four stages, which are: (1) the elaboration of a susceptibility map (spatial prediction) of landslides; (2) the elaboration of a map of `restricted susceptibility' in the particular case of slopes that are connected to streams and torrents (gorges); (3) the elaboration of a digital model which relates the altitude to the occurrence probability of those particular precipitation conditions which characterized the Jubaguerra event and (4) the combination of the probability model with the `restricted susceptibility map', to establish `critical zones' or areas which are more prone to the occurrence of phenomena that have same typology as this one.     

Surface effects of triggered fault slip on Reykjanes Peninsula, SW Iceland

Three large earthquakes (M_w>4.5) were triggered within 5 min, 85 km west of a M_w 6.5 earthquake in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ). We report on surface effects of these triggered earthquakes, which include fresh rupture, widespread rockfall, disrupted rockslides and block slides. Field data confirm that the earthquakes occurred along N-striking right-lateral strike-slip faults. Field data also support the conclusion from modeling of InSAR data that deformation from the second triggered event was more significant than for the other two. A major hydrological effect was the draining of water through an open fissure on a lake bed, lowering the lake level by greater than 4 m. Field relationships suggest that a component of aseismic slip could have been facilitated by water draining into the fault zone.     

Geomechanical model for the post-Variscan evolution of the Permocarboniferous–Mesozoic basins in Northeast Germany

The Permocarboniferous basins in Northeast Germany formed on the heterogeneous and eroded parts of the Variscan orogene and its deformed northern foreland. Transtensional tectonic movements and thermal re-equilibration lead to medium-scale crustal fragmentation, fast subsidence rates and regional emplacement of large amounts of mostly acidic volcanics. The later basin formation and differentiation was triggered by reversals of the large-scale stress field and reactivation of prominent zones of weakness like the Elbe Fault System and the Rhenohercynian/Saxothuringian boundary that separate different Variscan basement domains in the area. The geomechanical behaviour of the latter plays an important role for the geodynamic evolution of the medium to large-scale structural units, which we can observe today in three dimensions on structural maps, geophysical recordings and digital models. This study concentrates on an area that comprises the southern Northeast German Basin, the Saale Basin, the Flechtingen High, the Harz Mountains High and the Subhercynian Basin. The presented data include re-evaluations of special geological and structural maps, the most recent interpretation of the DEKORP BASIN 9601 seismic profile and observations of exposed rock sections in Northeast Germany. On the basis of different structural inventories and different basement properties, we distinguish two structural units to the south and one structural unit to the north of the Elbe Fault System. For each unit, we propose a geomechanical model of basin formation and basin inversion, and show that the Rhenohercynian Fold and Thrust Belt domain is deformed in a thin-skinned manner, while the Mid-German Crystalline Rise Domain, which is the western part of the Saxothuringian Zone, rather shows a thick-skinned deformation pattern. The geomechanical model for the unit north to the Elbe Fault System takes account to the fact that the base of the Zechstein beneath the present Northeast German basin shows hardly any evidence for brittle deformation, which indicates a relative stable basement. Our geomechanical model suggests that the Permocarboniferous deposits may have contributed to the structural stiffness by covering small to medium scale structures of the upper parts of the brittle basement. It is further suggested that the pre-Zechstein successions underneath the present Northeast German basin were possibly strengthening during the Cretaceous basin inversion, which resulted in stress transfer to the long-lived master faults, as indicated for example by the shape of the salt domes in the vicinity of the latter faults. Contrary to this, post-Zechstein successions deformed in a different and rather complex way that was strongly biased by intensive salt tectonic movements.     

Can flat-ramp-flat fault geometry be inferred from fold shape?: A comparison of kinematic and mechanical folds

The inference of fault geometry from suprajacent fold shape relies on consistent and verified forward models of fault-cored folds, e.g. suites of models with differing fault boundary conditions demonstrate the range of possible folding. Results of kinematic (fault-parallel flow) and mechanical (boundary element method) models are compared to ascertain differences in the way the two methods simulate flexure associated with slip along flat-ramp-flat geometry. These differences are assessed by systematically altering fault parameters in each model and observing subsequent changes in the suprajacent fold shapes. Differences between the kinematic and mechanical fault-fold relationships highlight the differences between the methods. Additionally, a laboratory fold is simulated to determine which method might best predict fault parameters from fold shape. Although kinematic folds do not fully capture the three-dimensional nature of geologic folds, mechanical models have non-unique fold-fault relationships. Predicting fault geometry from fold shape is best accomplished by a combination of the two methods.     

Development of Geological Data Warehouse

Data warehouse (DW), a new technology invented in 1990s, is more useful for integrating and analyzing massive data than traditional database. Its application in geology field can be divided into 3 phrases: 1992-1996, commercial data warehouse (CDW) appeared; 1996-1999, geological data warehouse (GDW) appeared and the geologists or geographers realized the importance of DW and began the studies on it, but the practical DW still followed the framework of DB; 2000 to present, geological data warehouse grows, and the theory of geo-spatial data warehouse (GSDW) has been developed but the research in geological area is still deficient except that in geography. Although some developments of GDW have been made, its core still follows the CDW-organizing data by time and brings about 3 problems: difficult to integrate the geological data, for the data feature more space than time; hard to store the massive data in fifferent levels due to the same reason; hardly support the spatial analysis if the data are organized by time as CDW does. So the GDW should be redesigned by organizing data by scale in order to store mass data in different levels and synthesize the data in different granularities, and choosing space control points to replace the former time control points so as to integrate different types of data by the method of storing one type data as one layer and then to superpose the layers. In addition, data cube, a wide used technology in CDW, will be no use in GDW, for the causality among the geological data is not so obvious as commercial data, as the data are the mixed result of many complex rules, and their analysis needs the special geological methods and software; on the other hand, data cube for mass and complex geo-data will devour too much store space to be practical. On this point, the main purpose of GDW may be fit for data integration unlike CDW for data analysis.     

闽北一次降雹过程的新一代天气雷达回波特征

通过对一次降雹过程的新一代天气雷达资料的强度场、速度场及其它产品的分析，得出对降雹过程不同阶段临近预报有指导意义的结论。     

气象卫星观测资料的分析在城市区域气象环境研究中的应用

目前 ,我国气象部门相当普遍地拥有气象卫星观测资料 ,但是 ,这些资料如何在城市气象服务以及为城市建设规划等方面的决策研究中发挥作用 ,急待进一步研究并开展工作。本文试图通过合理的反演处理 ,给出卫星观测对地面温度的测量结果 ,由此可比较细致地分析了解地面热状况及其与土地利用类型 ,地面覆盖性质等的关系。本文利用有限的 NOAA- AVHRR气象卫星遥感资料 ,采用修正的 Ulivieri分裂窗方法反演出同期的地表温度场 ,通过对北京地区的卫星观测资料进行算例分析 ,揭示出一个 2 0 0 km× 2 0 0 km范围内的地面温度分布特征。反演结果可以明显地揭示出城市热岛现象的变化规律 ,并且能较为清楚地反映出相对的高温区和低温区     

SARS疫情控制的模拟分析

应用系统动力学模型，定量地分析“早发现、早隔离、早治疗”措施，对于控制SARS疾病扩散与传播的重要性。结果表明，“得病后入院时间”与“隔离措施强度”对于SARS疫情态势发展，具有很大的敏感性与相关性，其中得病后的患者几时去医院治疗，对于疫情的控制具有更重要的意义。同时应用动力学模型，对北京的SARS疫情进行分时间段的模拟与SARS实施控制因素影响分析，结果表明，2003—04—20以后一段时间内实行的各种控制措施，以及5月1日—5月5日的长假对于北京SARS疫情的控制是非常有效的；而4月27日左右北京市社     

利用光谱反射率估算叶片生化组分和籽粒品质指标研究

对可见光至短波红外波段(350—2500nm)冬小麦田间冠层光谱反射率与叶片含氮量间的关系进行了相关分析。结果表明，820—1100nm波段的光谱反射率与叶片含氮量极显著正相关；1150—1300hm波段的光谱反射率与叶片含氮量显著正相关，以上两波段为叶片全氮的敏感波段。对各生育时期叶片全氮与其他生化组分的关系进行了回归分析，并建立了相关的回归方程，显著性检验结果表明，方程具有较高的可靠性。小麦的叶片含氮量可以估算其它生化组分及干物质指标含量，开花期叶片含氮量可用来估测籽粒蛋白质和干面筋等品质指标含量。     

GPS与INSAR数据融合研究展望

分析了GPS与INSAR数据融合的必要性与可行性 ,讨论了GPS与INSAR数据融合存在的主要问题 ,进一步探讨了利用GPS数据改善INSAR相位解缠算法 ,利用GPS与INSAR数据融合建立水汽模型和大气层延迟误差改正模型 ,以及GPS高时间分辨率和高平面位置精度与INSAR高空间分辨率和高高程变形精度有效统一的问题。