基于DFA的雷暴日时间序列分形特征分析

运用最小二乘法、非趋势波动分析(DFA)与小波变换三种方法对比分析许昌市1961—2012年52 a雷暴日时间序列的变化特性,揭示雷暴日的长程相关性及其内在规律。研究结果表明:许昌市52 a月雷暴日时间序列属于分形时间序列,存在内在的长程相关性,其雷暴日数每10 a减少1.6689天,雷暴日时间序列长程幂律相关的标度指数为0.8940,该幂律关系至少可持续17个月,并将2011年和2012年观测数据作为验证数据加以验证,结果与DFA分析结果一致;雷暴日时间序列具有2个显著的标度不变区域,存在一个突变点,反映了雷暴日系统具有复杂的物理作用机制;三种分析方法均得出许昌市雷暴日呈减少趋势的结论,最小二乘法虽然能定量计算出雷暴日每10 a的减少量,但年度尺度较大,精确度变低,而DFA和小波分析法的分析结果更加细致;但在定量描述雷暴日变化趋势上DFA法优于小波分析结果,而在分析雷暴日时序的细节分量和周期特性时小波分析更加清晰;DFA法可作为预测未来雷暴日发展趋势时长的有效方法之一。     

三维应力状态下饱和软黏土循环动力特性试验研究

在三维应力空间中,基于循环大主应力与循环中主应力的耦合模拟交通荷载下竖向循环正应力与平行于道路方向的水平向循环正应力的耦合,构建了循环大、中主应力耦合应力路径,定义了循环应力路径表征参数——循环中主应力系数bcyc。通过GDS动静真三轴仪,对正常固结饱和软黏土进行了一系列循环大、中主应力耦合应力路径下的不排水循环加载试验,重点分析了循环中主应力系数及循环应力比对正常固结软黏土长期循环动力及安定特性的影响。试验结果表明：三维应力状态下,循环中主应力系数的增大提升了土体回弹模量,抑制了累积大主应变的发展,并且累积大主应变与循环中主应力系数呈线性关系。基于安定理论,确定了循环大、中主应力耦合应力路径下饱和软黏土的容许循环应力比,同时发现循环中主应力系数的增加引起了容许循环应力比的上升。     

基于耗散能量的饱和黄土动孔压模型

通过一系列不排水动三轴试验探究了饱和黄土振动液化过程中孔隙水压力和累积耗散能量的演化模式,并讨论了围压、动应力幅值和固结应力比对其演化过程的影响。结果表明：饱和黄土的孔隙水压力和耗散能量随着循环荷载作用逐渐累积。固结围压抑制孔隙水压力增长而消耗更多能量;更大的动应力幅值使得孔隙水压力增长更快而消耗能量更少;等压固结下,孔隙水压力增长至围压从而触发初始液化,而偏压固结下,通常先达到振动液化应变标准而孔隙水压力并没有增长至围压水平,并且固结应力比越大,液化时孔隙水压力越小,消耗能量也更少。归一化孔隙水压力u/σ₀’与累积耗散能量W/W_f之间关系受围压、循环应力比和固结应力比影响较小,可统一用双曲线模型表示。     

Cumulative probability functions and their role in evaluating the chronology of geomorphological events during the Holocene

Cumulative probability functions (CPFs) for large numbers of radiocarbon age determinations are increasingly being used by scientists as a methodology to discern environmental histories. While the recent compilation of regional databases of the radiocarbon dating control for fluvial sediment sequences has been beneficial for identifying gaps in knowledge and stimulating new research, there are a number of problems that critically undermine the use of these CPFs as sensitive hydroclimatic proxies. (i) The CPF method is underpinned by the assumption that each radiocarbon measurement is a true age estimate for a point in time, whereas each measured age in fact forms a scatter around the true age of the sample; (ii) calibration of radiocarbon ages is responsible for much of the structure in CPFs and compounds the problem of scatter and smears the chronological control; (iii) the databases incorporate multiple types of environmental changes differing chronological relationships between the ¹⁴C measurements and the dated events, with pre‐dating, dating or post‐dating chronological control each displaying variable length temporal lags all mixed together in the same analysis; and (iv) the radiocarbon ages from individual case studies need to be more robustly tested before being incorporated into regional databases. All these factors negate the value of CPFs as sensitive proxies of environmental change, because peaks in probability for individual radiocarbon measurements are likely to be an incorrect estimate for the age of a geomorphological event and this problem is compounded by combining probabilities for multiple unrelated events. In this paper we present a critical analysis of CPFs and their interpretation before suggesting alternative approaches to analysing radiocarbon geochronologies of geomorphic events, which include: (i) Bayesian age modelling of river terrace development; (ii) developing regional databases that test specific geomorphic hypotheses; (iii) Bayesian age modelling of palaeoflood records; and (iv) analysis of sedimentation rates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江口北支近期河势演变与航道资源开发研究

从实测资料出发,分析长江口北支近期岸线与主流线的变化,并就滩涂围垦对北支河势的影响进行深入探讨.认为目前北支航道500 t级船舶基本可以达到全潮通航,1 000 t级船舶乘潮保证率也可达90%,若采取一定的工程措施,对局部浅段进行疏浚和整治,早日开辟北支1 000 t级航道是可行的.     

温度、质量浓度对富氟流体中Hf高温高压水解行为的影响

Hf是一种高场强元素,在地壳中的丰度较低,往往以类质同象的形式进入锆石中。以氟铪酸钾(K_2HfF_6)络合物为研究对象,观察它们在富水热液中的水解程度,进而研究Hf元素在地质过程中的迁移行为。结果表明:K_2HfF_6络合物在热液条件下能发生一定程度的水解反应,总体趋势为络合物的初始质量浓度越低且反应的温度越高,其水解程度越剧烈,络合物的稳定性也就越低;获得了高温高压条件下K_2HfF_6络合物的累积水解平衡常数。同时运用实验模拟的方法,根据提取液中Hf元素含量来推测矿物结晶时富氟流体中Hf元素含量,若以K_2HfF_6络合物最高配位的离子团形迁移时,Hf与F元素之间的质量浓度比值为1.6,据此可以计算成矿流体所需的最小F元素含量。     

Seismic risk assessment considering cumulative damage due to aftershocks

Calculating the limit state (LS) exceedance probability for a structure considering the main seismic event and the triggered aftershocks (AS) is complicated both by the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also by the cumulative damage caused by the sequence of events. Taking advantage of a methodology developed previously by the authors for post‐mainshock (MS) risk assessment, the LS probability due to a sequence of mainshock and the triggered aftershocks is calculated for a given aftershock forecasting time window. The proposed formulation takes into account both the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also the damage accumulation due to the triggered aftershocks. It is demonstrated that an existing reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame with infills subjected to the main event and the triggered sequence exceeds the near‐collapse LS. On the other hand, the structure does not reach the onset of near‐collapse LS when the effect of triggered aftershocks is not considered. It is shown, based on simplifying assumptions, that the derived formulation yields asymptotically to the same Poisson‐type functional form used when the cumulative damage is not being considered. This leads to a range of approximate solutions by substituting the fragilities calculated for intact, MS‐damaged, and MS‐plus‐one‐AS‐damaged structures in the asymptotic simplified formulation. The latter two approximate solutions provide good agreement with the derived formulation. Even when the fragility of intact structure is employed, the approximate solution (considering only the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence) leads to higher risk estimates compared with those obtained based on only the mainshock. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

循环荷载下加筋砾性土填料的动三轴试验分析

为探究循环动载作用下加筋砾性土填料的动力特性,在不同加筋层数和围压下对加筋砾性土进行了固结不排水动三轴试验,研究加筋层数和围压对加筋砾性土动力特性的影响,并进一步分析了加筋砾性土轴向累积应变发展机制。研究表明:加筋层数增加时,轴向累积应变减小,回弹模量增大,且加筋作用的影响幅度逐渐衰减;增大围压时,土体轴向累积应变减小,回弹模量和动孔压均随之增大;随着加筋层数和振次的增加,滞回曲线逐渐向应力轴靠近,滞回圈面积逐渐减小,土体耗能作用减弱。基于安定理论和间接影响带理论,揭示了加筋作用对轴向累积应变发展的影响机制。建立了能够反映加筋层数的加筋砾性土轴向累积应变预测模型,其条件参数a、b、g与加筋层数呈线性关系,可有效预测循环荷载下加筋砾性土路基沉降变形规律。     

Shoreline evolution of the Holland coast on a decadal scale

The decadal evolution of the dunefoot position along 120 km of the Holland coast is analysed. Firstly, a new definition of dunefoot is introduced based on hydrodynamic and morphologic considerations, which is not affected by local and instantaneous processes occurring immediately before the bathymetric survey. The dunefoot evolution over decadal scales indicates the existence of spatial and temporal oscillations in the shoreline position with magnitudes of 2–3 km length and a periodicity of 4–15 years. Two main controlling factors of this behaviour are identified: (1) influence of sub-aqueous bar systems, and (2) changes in the storm-wave conditions reaching the coast. Although the precise controlling processes of the relation between the dunefoot and the subaqueous profile still remain unclarified, we introduce the concept that the development of a morphological bar cycle requires a fixed amount of time-integrated forcing that is proportional to the cumulative effect of storm waves. Beach mobility along the Holland coast on decadal scales (10–20 m) is similar or lower than mobility introduced by storms or by seasonal cycles. However, it is important to consider these changes for the possible implications on the local vulnerability of the coast to extreme events. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

COMPARISON STUDY OF TWO KINDS OF CODES TO MEASURE FAULT-OFFSETS BASED ON MATLAB: A CASE STUDY ON EASTERN ALTYN TAGH FAULT

Geomorphic offsets displaced by coseismic surface rupture can be analyzed to identify earthquake recurrence behavior. Therefore, obtaining a sufficient and precise along-fault offset dataset is vital to identify long-term earthquake recurrence behavior. Furthermore, knowledge of along-fault slip distribution during a single-earthquake or multi-earthquakes is important for other reasons, including a better understanding of the relationship between earthquake size and coseismic displacements, fault kinematics and fault mechanics. A recent flourish of offsets-measuring software and high-resolution topographic data together offer an unprecedented opportunity to measure high-density fault offsets. Here, we introduce and compare two kinds of most popular software, LaDiCaoz and 3D_Fault_Offsets. We describe the workflow and principle of the two codes by taking a fault-offset example on the eastern Altyn Tagh Fault. LaDiCaoz iterates over the channel morphology and position parameters and determines the summed absolute elevation difference Σ[Δ(elevation)] between both transverse profiles. The optimal horizontal offset is defined by the parameter combination that results in the least mismatch between two profiles. Compared with LaDiCaoz, the principle of 3D_Fault_Offsets is more complicated by measuring the offset in three dimensions. It mathematically identifies and represents nine of the most prominent geometric characteristics of common sublinear markers along faults in three dimensions, such as the streambed(minimum elevation), top, free face and base of channel banks or scarps(minimum Laplacian, maximum gradient, and maximum Laplacian), and ridges(maximum elevation). By calculating best fit lines through the nine point clouds on either side of the fault, the code computes the lateral and vertical offsets between the piercing points of these lines onto the fault plane, providing nine lateral and nine vertical offset measures per marker. Through a Monte Carlo approach, the code calculates the total uncertainty on each offset. Although both 3D_Fault_Offsets and LaDiCaoz are developed based on the Matlab platform, there are significant differences in principles, linear marker, software interface, repeatability, input-file types, degree of automation, adaptability, output file types, etc. In this part, we compare and summarize their features, advantages, and disadvantages. Finally, we calculate the correlation of two groups of fault-offset data derived from the two methods along the eastern ATF. By doing this, we try to explore if the two methods can be crosschecked and to study how sinuosity of the linear geomorphic markers affect the measuring results. By discussing and comparing the accuracy of the two measuring methods, we consider that LaDiCaoz is better than 3D_Fault_Offsets in accuracy aspect. In our opinion, there exist some disadvantages in the both software, and higher automation and introduction of artificial intelligence will be the future development direction.