雷击风险评估中损害概率PB和PSPD参数的计算分析

通过对雷击建筑物所造成建筑物及其内部系统损害原因的分析,结合《雷电防护》GB/T21714系列标准,分析得知GB/T21714.2中损害概率PB和PSPD与雷电流的概率分布和LPL（Lighfning Pretection Level,雷电防护水平）对应的雷电流极值有关。PB的数值等于雷电流大于LPL对应雷电流最大值的概率,与其小于雷电流最小值的概率之和;PSPD的数值等于雷电流大于LPL对应雷电流最大值的概率。同时指出,《建筑物防雷设计规范》GB50057－2010中各个LPL的损害概率PB和PSPD不应直接采用GB/T21714.2中的规定值,应根据GB50057给出的雷电流参数进行计算,或利用雷电监测网的资料,获取建筑物附近一定范围内的云地闪数据,统计得到雷电流概率分布函数,依据该雷电流概率分布函数来计算PB和PSPD。     

趋利避害是玛纳斯县植棉的重要丰产技术

分析了９０年代以来,玛纳斯县不同气候年景对棉花产量、品质的影响,并提出了相应的对策。     

基于累计机会可达性的北京城市公共服务设施复合功能识别

城市时空大数据技术的快速发展和应用,为城市功能区识别提供了新的数据基础和技术手段,但专门关于城市公共服务设施复合功能的研究还相对较少。基于北京市9大类公共服务设施的空间点数据,综合考虑不同类型公共服务设施等级和品质特征,采用累计机会方法对1 km×1 km格网尺度的北京城市公共服务设施可达性进行了综合评价,在此基础上重点分析了北京城市公共服务设施复合功能特征与影响因素。研究表明：① 北京城市公共服务设施累计机会空间分布存在明显的中心集聚特征,但不同类型公共服务设施的空间分布模式和覆盖范围却有所区别;② 北京城市公共服务设施功能区可以划分为单一功能、单一化的复合功能、2种复合功能、3种复合功能和均衡化的复合功能等5大类型;③ 人口密度、距市中心距离、土地价格和经营性为主设施的累计机会可达性是影响北京城市公共服务设施复合功能的重要因素。研究结论对进一步细化城市功能区研究和促进北京城市公共服务设施空间结构优化具有科学启示作用。     

新疆北疆地区季节性冻土结冻过程与日积温的关系

传统的度日因子模型很难分辨在结冻期土壤每日结冻和解冻的过程,而日小时积温可以区分正积温和负积温对土壤冻结过程的影响.利用北疆地区1951-2010年气象站数据和决策树算法,分析计算日小时积温及表层5cm和10cm土壤冻结状态数据及日小时积温对季节性冻土冻结现象的影响.结果表明:在北疆范围年小时正积温以每年平均160℃增长,而年小时负积温以每年平均153℃减少.季节性冻土发生冻结现象所需的临界值分布与北疆地区气候和土壤分布基本一致,但仍存在空间差异性.北疆地区5cm土壤结冻所需的日小时负积温为-50℃以下,而5cm到10cm土壤结冻所需日小时负积温的平均值差值为-15℃左右.与日最低气温和日平均气温作为土壤结冻判据相比,日小时积温临界值作为判据可获得较高的精确度.在昌吉地区和阿勒泰地区冻土的平均深度随着日小时负积温临界值的增加而减少.     

Standard cumulative semivariograms of stationary stochastic processes and regional correlation

The standard cumulative semivariograms (SCS), obtained analytically from the currently employed stationary stochastic processes, provide a basis for the model identification and its parameter as well as regional correlation estimations. The analytical solutions for different stationary stochastic processes such as independent (IP), moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), and autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA (1,0,1) processes give rise to different types of SCSs which can be expressed in terms of the autocorrelation structure parameters only. The SCSs of independent and MA processes appear as linear trends whereas other type of processes have SCSs which are nonlinear for short distances but become linear at large distances. Irrespective of the stationary stochastic process type the linear portions of SCSs have unit slopes. The vertical distance between these linear portions and that of the IP cumulative semivariogram (CS), provide an indicator for measuring the regional correlation. In the case of stationary processes, the straight line portions of any CS are parallel to each other. Hence, it is possible to identify the model from the sample CS. Finally, necessary procedures are provided for the model parameters estimation. The methodology developed, herein, is applied to some hydrochemical ions in the groundwater of the Wasia aquifer in central part of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.     

Incorporating low‐cycle fatigue model into duration‐dependent inelastic design spectra

Seismic performance of structures is related to the damage inflicted on the structure by the earthquake, which means that formulation of performance‐based design is inherently coupled with damage assessment of the structure. Although the potential for cumulative damage during a long‐duration earthquake is generally recognized, most design codes do not explicitly take into account the damage potential of such events. In this paper, the classical low‐cycle fatigue model commonly used for seismic damage assessment is cast in a framework suitable for incorporating cumulative damage into seismic design. The model, in conjunction with a seismic input energy spectrum, may be used to establish an energy‐based seismic design. In order to ensure satisfactory performance in a structure, the cyclic plastic strain energy capacity of the structure is designed to be larger than or equal to the portion of seismic input energy contributing to cumulative damage. The resulting design spectrum, which depends on the duration of the ground motion, indicates that the lateral strength of the structure must be increased in order to compensate for the increased damage due to an increased number of inelastic cycles that occur in a long‐duration ground motion. Examples of duration‐dependent inelastic design spectra are developed using parameters currently available for the low‐cycle fatigue model. The resulting spectra are also compared with spectra developed using a different cumulative damage model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震活动期、幕最大地震M1的估计及中-长期地震趋势预测

提出一种地震活动期、幕最大地震M1的估计方法：利用中低震级累计频度∑N与震级近似的直线关系得到间隔地震频度N与震级的线性关系。用间隔度N与震级的线性关系估计最大地震M1。结果表明，以震级－间隔频率的线性关系估计的M1比震级－累计频度关系得到的M1更接近实际发生的最大地震震级，震级－累计频率关系得到M1通常被高估。基于震级－累计频度关系曲线的特征和震级－间隔频度的线性关系估计的最大地震M1，可为中－长期地震趋势预测提供新的信息。研究表明，中国大陆自1979年开始的地震幕即将结束，而帕米尔东北侧自1915年以来的地震平静期也将结束。     

Cumulative demand of the earthquake ground motions in the near source

In this paper the effects of near‐fault earthquakes are investigated through the study of parameters related to both input energy and plastic cycles demand. Based on the results of two different regression analyses performed with 128 near‐fault and 122 far‐field registrations, respectively, the Cosenza and Manfredi adimensional Id index was found to be the best seismological parameter correlated to the number n and amplitude m of plastic cycles in the vicinity of the source as well as far from it. Analytical formulations for n,m and for the equivalent number of plastic cycles neq are proposed for near‐fault and far‐field regions. The study of Id and neq shows the tendency of such parameters to increase as the distance increases. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.