膜孔灌溉下土壤入渗特征的多因素分析

为了研究土壤容重、初始含水率、压力水头、黏粒含量和入渗时间5个因素对膜孔灌自由入渗特性的影响,根据正交试验设计12组试验（9组试验,3组验证试验）。通过开展室内膜孔灌试验,研究了多因素交互对膜孔灌自由入渗单位膜孔面积累积入渗量、入渗率及平均体积含水率增量的影响,并分别建立了单位膜孔面积累积入渗量和湿润体内平均体积含水率增量与各影响因素之间的经验模型。两模型的均方根误差分别为0.032 cm、0.006 cm3/cm3,相关系数均大于0.97,决定系数均大于0.95（P<0.01）,经验证模型计算值与实测值相对误差均在±13%范围以内。研究表明:压力水头对单位膜孔面积累积入渗量影响不显著（P>0.05）,初始含水率对其影响显著（P<0.05）,而土壤容重、黏粒含量和入渗时间对其影响极显著（P<0.01）,其影响程度由大到小依次为入渗时间、黏粒含量、土壤容重和初始含水率;湿润体内平均体积含水率增量不受入渗时间影响,4个因素对其影响均极显著（P<0.01）,其影响程度由大到小依次为初始含水率、土壤容重、压力水头和黏粒含量。研究成果可为进一步优化膜孔灌灌水技术要素组合提供理论依据。     

云南姚安井2009年10月后水位下降的成因分析

地下水动态的异常变化既有可能是地震前兆异常信息,也有可能是某种环境干扰所引起,如降雨和地下水开采等.如何及时识别并排除环境干扰,对于成功判定地震前兆异常至关重要.云南姚安井水位于2009年10月后出现了下降趋势的异常变化,截止2011年底,最大下降幅度达3m.为分析该井水位异常变化的形成原因,依据姚安井水文地质环境特征,建立了相关的数学物理模型,定量分析了降水量和地下水开采量对该井水位的影响.分析结果表明,姚安井2009年后出现的水位大幅下降可能与区域降水量减小导致的地下水开采活动增强有一定的相关性.文中所采取的异常识别与分析方法,对今后地下水动态异常识别及前兆信息判定工作具有一定的借鉴意义.     

矿业活动区农田土壤重金属累积风险的评判方法——以小秦岭金矿区为例

金属矿产资源开发活动通常会导致矿区土壤重金属含量的累积,选用科学的评价标准及方法成为评判、区分矿业活动农田土壤重金属累积影响和风险的关键问题。在简述土壤背景值和土壤环境质量标准含义的基础上,提出采用与矿区其他环境条件基本相同或相近的邻区耕作层土壤重金属元素的平均含量作为评判矿业活动重金属对耕作层土壤的累积影响的对照值。以2011年小秦岭金矿区80件耕作层土壤重金属含量为例,金矿开发活动区耕作层土壤重金属的累积风险研究表明,土壤重金属低风险以上样品数占总样品数百分比的排序为HgCdPbCu,矿业活动对土壤重金属累积的贡献率排序为HgCuPbCdZn。土壤中的Cr、As、Zn元素有轻度累积但无风险。土壤中Hg元素的累积风险面积达到了187.77km2,占到研究区总面积的47.08%。其中,中、高风险的面积为99.55km2,土壤重金属累积风险极其严重。研究结果科学地评判了矿业活动对耕作层土壤重金属的累积影响及其贡献,为土壤污染防治指明了方向。     

兰州九州开发区不稳定斜坡勘查治理分析——以106队兰州基地东侧不稳定斜坡为例

甘肃有色地勘局106队部东侧的不稳定斜坡位于兰州市九州开发区黄河北岸、罗锅沟左岸沟谷斜坡地带。勘查查明,不稳定斜坡中下部及坡脚地带为古近系砂质泥岩,斜坡中上部和坡顶为第四系全新统人工堆积物;其形成原因与地形地貌、地质构造、工程地质特征、降雨、地下水、人类工程活动等有关。根据定性分析和定量计算,认为勘查区斜坡现状处于不稳定状态,其失稳产生崩塌、滑坡的可能性大,最危险滑裂面位于填土和基岩的接触面;拟建工程建设遭受其危害的可能性及危险性中等。建议在治理斜坡时,坡脚挡土墙工程选用浅基础型式,跨越浅沟段(15m)可采用桩基础形式,以砂质泥岩作为基础持力层,并严格防止地表水渗入砂质泥岩地基。为区内不稳定斜坡的治理,防灾减灾提供了依据。     

冲积性河流河床冲淤调整对洪水泥沙过程的响应——以黄河游荡型河段为例

为研究冲积性河流造床机理,基于能量耗散原理分析河床调整与水沙过程（变异特性）间的关系十分必要。以黄河游荡型河段为例,利用实测资料分析和平面二维水沙数值模拟方法,进行了各种洪水泥沙条件下河流冲淤规律的探讨。研究发现平滩面积、河相系数与径流泥沙特征值间存在的关联性映射出冲积性河流能量关系中的制约机制;不同洪水泥沙过程的河床冲刷强度变化具有阶段性,主槽累积刷槽效应与洪水泥沙过程有密切响应关系;高效输沙的洪水过程通过塑造最适宜的河床断面形态,能实现最佳输沙效率与主槽的最大冲刷。在不同漫滩洪水条件中,综合系数Φ最大时的洪水过程具有最大累积刷槽效应,因此对应流量可作为黄河下游漫滩洪水的调控指标。     

Agreement,significance, and understandings of historical responsibility in climate change negotiations

For over 20 years, Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have struggled with the normative significance of history for the differentiation of responsibilities. Negotiations on ‘historical responsibility’ have been marked by considerable conflict between developed and developing countries. However, in 2010, the Parties acknowledged the concept in a consensus decision. This article analyses UN Climate Change Conference delegates' agreement with the decision, whether it reconciled conflict between interpretations of historical responsibility, and the significance that delegates ascribe to the decision for future agreements. The decision has not eliminated conflict between different interpretations. Delegates who understand historical responsibility as linking countries' historical contributions to climate change to their responsibilities to act agree more with the decision and foresee it having a stronger influence on future agreements than do those viewing the concept in more conceptual terms. The decision marks the start of negotiations concerning how rather than whether historical responsibility should guide operative text. This article demonstrates that (1) the divergent interpretations pose clear challenges for a necessary but demanding agreement on operationalization, and (2) focusing on an ambiguous version of proportionality between contribution to change and responsibility can become a first step for convergence between divergent positions.     

An accurate selectivity estimation method for window queries and an implementation thereof

Spatial selectivity estimation is crucial to choose the cheapest execution plan for a given query in a query optimizer. This article proposes an accurate spatial selectivity estimation method based on the cumulative density (CD) histograms, which can deal with any arbitrary spatial query window. In this method, the selectivity can be estimated in original logic of the CD histogram, after the four corner values of a query window have been accurately interpolated on the continuous surface of the elevation histogram. For the interpolation of any corner points, we first identify the cells that can affect the value of point (x, y) in the CD histogram. These cells can be categorized into two classes: ones within the range from (0, 0) to (x, y) and the other overlapping the range from (0, 0) to (x, y). The values of the former class can be used directly, whereas we revise the values of any cells falling in the latter class by the number of vertices in the corresponding cell and the area ratio covered by the range from (0, 0) to (x, y). This revision makes the estimation method more accurate. The CD histograms and estimation method have been implemented in INGRES. Experiment results show that the method can accurately estimate the selectivity of arbitrary query windows and can help the optimizer choose a cheaper query plan.     

Generic cumulative annular bucket histogram for spatial selectivity estimation of spatial database management system

Selectivity estimation is crucial to query optimizers in choosing an optimal execution plan in a given spatial query, and there has been a great deal of focus on how to achieve good selectivity estimation for finer spatial selection operators. Equally crucial to this is understanding how to produce an updated spatial histogram. With this in mind, we used a cumulative annular bucket histogram (AB histogram), which not only accurately estimates the selectivity of a spatial selection or a spatial join operation with finer operators but also provides an updated spatial histogram to estimate the selectivity of subsequent spatial operations in a multi-level spatial query plan. A basic unit of AB histogram stores the number of minimum bounding rectangles whose lower left points and upper right points are located in specific rectangular regions. According to the basic units of a cumulative AB histogram, we can find out the selectivity of a spatial selection with a number of different finer operators. When it comes to spatial join operations, a relationship between two cumulative AB histograms can be translated into a relationship between one histogram and numerous query windows from the other histogram. Furthermore, an updated cumulative AB histogram can be simultaneously built into the process of selectivity calculation, making it possible to achieve both selectivity and an updated histogram of spatial join; its implementation made in the optimizer facility (OPF) of INGRES9.2. To highlight the performance of a cumulative AB histogram, several experiments have been conducted, with results showing that the cumulative AB histogram not only supports the selectivity estimation of spatial selection and spatial join with ‘Disjoint’, ‘Intersect’, ‘Within’, ‘Contains’, ‘Crosses’ and ‘Overlap’ operators but also supports the generation of an updated histogram. This indicates that Ingres would do better to find a query plan with low-execution costs.     

The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Reported Crimes in Louisiana: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

This research assesses the impact that one natural disaster—Hurricane Katrina—and subsequent population movements have had on crime in the state of Louisiana. Using Index Crimes from the Louisiana Commission on Law Enforcement and population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, time series of violent and nonviolent crime rates were first analyzed using autoregressive, integrated, and moving average (ARIMA) models. Cumulative percentile maps were created next to analyze spatial trends of crime hot and cold spots in the study area. Overall, results from this research support theories that suggest that crime rates remain stable or actually decline in regions receiving evacuees from areas hardest hit by the hurricane. In the case of Orleans Parish, results are inconclusive due to unreliable crime rates for the period following Hurricane Katrina until the beginning of 2006. It is suggested that crime rates in Orleans Parish fell drastically after the storm. However, some crime types, including robbery, burglary, and larceny, returned to pre-Katrina levels and murder and aggravated assault even exceeded prestorm averages by the end of December 2007.     

青藏高原沼泽草甸活动层土壤热状况对增温的响应

在人类活动和气候变化的双重影响下, 青藏高原高寒湿地生态系统发生巨大变化, 尤其是引起地气间水能循环过程发生改变. 基于高寒沼泽草甸布置的3处样地(OTC-1、 OTC-2和Control)一年的观测数据, 分析短期增温对活动层土壤温度变化过程的影响. 结果表明: OTC-1和OTC-2年均气温分别增加了6.7 ℃和3.5 ℃, 日间气温增加显著, 而夜间气温基本保持不变, 从而加大了气温日较差. 增温促进植物的生长发育, 使OTC内地上生物量要显著高于室外. OTC-1年平均地温要明显高于室外, 而OTC-2地温与室外基本相当, 这些主要受到OTC结构及植被热隔绝作用的影响. OTC-1总积温随着深度的增加不断降低, 且在5 cm、 20 cm深度总积温为正值, 而OTC-2和Control在土壤浅层略有降低, 65 cm深度以下基本趋于一致. 该研究结果将对研究高寒生态系统水热过程和碳排放具有一定的参考价值.