Sensitivity Analysis on GIS Procedures for the Estimate of Soil Erosion Risk

Land degradation by water erosion is one of the majorissues in the field of environmental planning. Soilerosion and sediment transport are spatiallydistributed processes, and their evaluation can beeasily realised by means of the use of GeographicInformation Systems. The greater availability ofdigital and geo-lithological data managed and storedinside GIS has implied the development of techniquesand procedures aimed at the definition of the spatialprediction of erosion and deposition rates across acatchment. In this paper using terrain data measuredon an experimental basin in southern Italy, asensitivity analysis on different GIS-basedmethodologies for the estimate of a Length-Slope factorhas been developed with the aim of determining whichof these is more reliable for spatial erosion riskassessment. Specifically, by using the unit stream powertheory, different estimates are shown, depending on thescheme adopted to represent the hydrological andtopographic three-dimensional effects inside theLength-Slope factor. The performances of theprocedures analysed have been evaluated through theinformation content of the corresponding spatialdistributions, estimated as an entropy measure. Theresults obtained have shown that among the approachesutilised to describe the routing of the surface runoffalong the hillslope profiles, the two-dimensionalscheme appeared to be more realistic both on divergingand converging surfaces. Such a scheme, during thecomputational phases also aimed at distinguishing the areasof the basin experiencing net erosion from those areasexperiencing net deposition, resulted, being inaccordance with on-site investigations.     

A numerical study on the cumulative out‐of‐plane damage to church masonry façades due to a sequence of strong ground motions

Seismic shocks occur sometimes as a sequence, close in space and time, of destructive events of comparable intensity. In these cases, a significant portion of the damage to historical buildings can be related with the cumulated damage on structures that become progressively more vulnerable. This research investigates the specific increase of damage determined by a sequence of strong ground motions, focusing the interest on the out‐of‐plane response of 2 church masonry façades. The dynamic analyses were performed by a specific rigid body and spring model RBSM, which only accounts for out‐of‐plane damage mechanisms. Two idealized models of façade, each made of 2 different masonry bonds, have been studied by applying various sequences of recorded accelerograms. The results highlighted a complex relationship between the spectral content of the seismic shocks and the characteristics of the structures that change in the course of the loading sequence due to the development of damage. The Housner spectral intensity proved to be a reliable scalar measure of the ground motion destructiveness for these façades. Moreover, when considering a design‐consistent accelerogram that causes a relevant damage pattern, ie, with a significant elongation of the effective first period of vibration, the numerical results indicated a possible spectral intensity threshold below which the occurrence of repeated seismic shocks, both before and after the reference design shock, can be considered as irrelevant. On the other hand, a catastrophic increase of damage should be expected when this threshold is overcome.     

A damage-based definition of effective peak acceleration

This paper presents a rational basis for obtaining the Effective Peak Acceleration (EPA) of a given ground motion process. The proposed formulation considers the statistical variability in the ground motion, and is centred on the idea of explicitly linking EPA with expected cumulative damage in the structures due to the inelastic excursions. The structural behaviour has been modelled by a Single-Degree-Of-Freedom (SDOF) bilinear hysteretic oscillator. EPA is considered to be the expected PGA of a scaled ground motion process such that this oscillator undergoes a specified expected damage under the unscaled process if it is linearly designed for the scaled process. For estimation of the damage, the oscillator has been replaced by an equivalent linear oscillator through stochastic averaging. A parametric study has been carried out to investigate the dependence of EPA on several governing parameters, and it has been shown that despite the strong dependence of EPA on oscillator time period, it may be possible to obtain ‘period-averaged’ EPA values for several ground motion processes for engineering applications. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models:An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p＜0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions 1, 2 and 3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p＜0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all ＞0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers''D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

海湾围填海对滩涂湿地生态服务累积影响研究——以福建兴化湾为例

以福建兴化湾为例,选用1959年海图、1986年和2000年遥感影像数据及围填海相关规划等为基本信息源,将研究区划分为农田、养殖池、盐田、草林地、裸地、岛屿及滩涂7种生态系统类型.采用GIS技术分析兴化湾不同时期由于围填海所造成的各生态系统类型面积变化,并借鉴Costanza等研究的生态服务功能单位价值系数,评估围填海对滩涂湿地生态服务造成的累积影响.在1959-2000年,兴化湾滩涂面积减少了21.35%,生态服务的年总价值由1959年的5.31×109元降至2000年的4.45×109元,损失达8.63×109元,损失幅度为16.35%;2000-2020年,围填海相关规划的实施将导致兴化湾滩涂面积急剧下降,生态服务的年总价值由2000年的4.45×109元降至 2020年的3.48×109元,损失达9.68×108元,损失幅度为21.77%,其损失量和损失幅度均高于1959-2000年40余年的损失.     

A NOTE ON DAMAGE-BASED INELASTIC SPECTRA

When a structure is subjected to moderate to severe ground motions, a few excursions of the response yield level may take place following the reductions usually enforced in the design forces. These excursions are associated with progressive damage in the structure. Thus, a choice of the design level has to be suitably based on the maximum damage to be allowed in the structure. In this paper, a stochastic technique of developing damage-based non-linear spectra has been proposed for the aseismic design of those structures which can be idealized through Single-Degree-Of-Freedom (SDOF) oscillators. The proposed technique has been illustrated by obtaining the non-linear spectra which can possibly be used for a damage-based design. Along with the spectra, allowable ductility demand which should be supplied through proper sizing and detailing of the members and is compatible with the damage has also been specified. The non-linear SDOF oscillators have been approximated for this purpose by equivalent linear oscillators using a new stochastic linearization technique. The proposed linearization technique has been validated through simulation results in the case of an idealized, non-hysteretic, Elasto-Plastic (EP) model.     

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the north-eastern Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau since 1920.Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be drivenby dislocations of large earthquakes(M≥7.0)and secular tectonic loading.The earthquake rupture parameters suchas the fault rupture length,width,and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their sta-tistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments.Our study shows that among 20 largeearthquakes(M≥7.0)investigated,17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive,with atriggering rate of 85%.This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation oflarge earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.     

Damage‐based design with no repairs for multiple events and its sensitivity to seismicity model

Conventional design methodology for the earthquake‐resistant structures is based on the concept of ensuring ‘no collapse’ during the most severe earthquake event. This methodology does not envisage the possibility of continuous damage accumulation during several not‐so‐severe earthquake events, as may be the case in the areas of moderate to high seismicity, particularly when it is economically infeasible to carry out repairs after damaging events. As a result, the structure may collapse or may necessitate large scale repairs much before the design life of the structure is over. This study considers the use of design force ratio (DFR) spectrum for taking an informed decision on the extent to which yield strength levels should be raised to avoid such a scenario. DFR spectrum gives the ratios by which the yield strength levels of single‐degree‐of‐freedom oscillators of different initial periods should be increased in order to limit the total damage caused by all earthquake events during the lifetime to a specified level. The DFR spectra are compared for three different seismicity models in case of elasto‐plastic oscillators: one corresponding to the exponential distribution for return periods of large events and the other two corresponding to the lognormal and Weibull distributions. It is shown through numerical study for a hypothetical seismic region that the use of simple exponential model may be acceptable only for small values of the seismic gap length. For moderately large to large seismic gap lengths, it may be conservative to use the lognormal model, while the Weibull model may be assumed for very large seismic gap lengths. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内蒙古多伦县沙漠化驱动因素影响的累加效应分析

以内蒙古多伦县为研究区,选择若干指标,在系统分析沙漠化自然和人文驱动因素的基础上,采用滑动平均法和灰色关联法进行了沙漠化驱动因素影响的累加效应分析。结果表明：人为驱动因素对沙漠化作用的累加效应以较短时间尺度为主,而自然驱动因素对沙漠化作用的累加效应以中小时间尺度为主。年均气温的累加效应在3 a尺度上最大,年均降水量的累加效应在4 a尺度上最明显,而蒸发量和平均风速则随着时间尺度的增加其影响增大,在10 a尺度上表现得最为明显;人口数量在1 a尺度上达到了最高值;耕地面积对沙漠化的影响在1~10 a尺度上逐渐减少;粮食总量对沙漠化的影响在5 a尺度上影响达到最大;国内生产总值对沙漠化的影响在2 a尺度上影响最大;牲畜头数对沙漠化的影响在2 a平均尺度上表现得最为明显。人口数量的增长是耕地面积和牲畜头数对沙漠化影响产生累加效应的主要原因。     

Mining candidate causal relationships in movement patterns

In many applications, the environmental context for and drivers of movement patterns are just as important as the patterns themselves. This article adapts standard data mining techniques, combined with a foundational ontology of causation, with the objective of helping domain experts identify candidate causal relationships between movement patterns and their environmental context. In addition to data about movement and its dynamic environmental context, our approach requires as input definitions of the states and events of interest. The technique outputs causal and causal-like relationships of potential interest, along with associated measures of support and confidence. As a validation of our approach, the analysis is applied to real data about fish movement in the Murray River in Australia. The results demonstrate that the technique is capable of identifying statistically significant patterns of movement indicative of causal and causal-like relationships.