Statistical interpretation of the daily variation of urban water consumption in Beijing,China

Abstract

The efficient planning and design of water networks, as well as the management and strategies of existing water supply systems, require accurate short-term water demand forecasts. In this study, a statistical model for the estimation of daily urban water consumption was developed. The model was applied to analyse and forecast the daily water consumption in the main district of Beijing, China, from 2006 to 2010. The model exhibited good performance with a coefficient of determination, R², greater than 0.9 in both the calibration and validation periods. The results indicate that: (a) the 7-day moving average temperature is an efficient variable that can be used to depict water-use variation in a year; (b) a daily maximum temperature of 31.1°C and the occurrence of precipitation are two thresholds of water-use behaviour; and (c) the current day’s water consumption has a strong correlation with the consumption of one, two and seven days ago.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang

Citation Zhang, D.W., et al., 2013. Statistical interpretation of the daily variation of urban water consumption in Beijing, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 181–192.     

Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time

ABSTRACT

What implications do societies’ risk perceptions have for flood losses? This study uses a stylized, socio-hydrological model to simulate the mutual feedbacks between human societies and flood events. It integrates hydrological modelling with cultural theory and proposes four ideal types of society that reflect existing dominant risk perception and management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying and risk controlling societies. We explore the consequent trajectories of flood risk generated by the interactions between floods and people for these ideal types of society over time. The results suggest that flood losses are substantially reduced when awareness-raising attitudes are promoted through inclusive, participatory approaches in the community. In contrast, societies that rely on top-down hierarchies and structural measures to protect settlements on floodplains may still suffer significant losses during extreme events. This study illustrates how predictions formed through social science theories can be applied and tested in hydrological modelling.     

Food-web manipulation of drinking water reservoirs with salmonids: vertical distribution of prey and predator

In a novel biomanipulation experiment salmonids were used as a tool to improve water quality. The manipulation was initiated in spring 2000 as a response to non-point sources of phosphorus in a drinking water reservoir in Saxony, Germany. Salmonids (brown trout, Salmo trutta forma lacustris) were chosen as predators as the reservoir has a large hypolimnic water body and surface temperatures rarely exceed 20 °C. The vertical distributions of prey fish and brown trout were analysed with a fleet of vertical gill nets set in the pelagic zone of the reservoir. Consumption of brown trout was estimated by means of a bioenergetic model and the diet analyses of the trout. While the dominant planktivore (roach, Rutilus rutilus) was caught almost exclusively in the epilimnion during the stratification period trout were caught mainly below a depth of 10 m. Diet analysis revealed that the trout performed vertical migrations to consume food in the epilimnic layer, as an important food component were adult terrestrial and aquatic insects. The amount of fish in the food increased strongly with the size of the brown trout. The consumption estimate suggested that the trout had consumed 2-3% of the total roach stock during the study period (May-November 2000) of the first year of biomanipulation. We conclude that in general salmonids are suitable for food-web manipulation in deep reservoirs, but the stocked fish should be as large as possible (> 300 mm) and the proportion of large trout (> 500 mm) should be as high as possible.     

地球物理技术在我国考古和文物保护工作中的应用

20世纪80年代以来，我国考古及文物保护工作者和地球物理工作者越来越认识到地球物理技术在考古和方物保护方面可以发挥作用，在古幕探查、大型古建筑地下遗存现状、古遗迹断代等方面，地球物理技术都找到了发挥作用的机会，本文通过地球物理技术在云冈石窟、龙门石窟、克孜尔石窟、北京故宫紫禁城、嵩岳寺塔、古泗州城遗址、风阳明中都等的物理探查实例，以及查找古幕、古遗迹断代等方面的工作，介绍了我国在考古和文物保护领域应用地球物理技术的进展，并指出了物探在用于考古和文保时的特点和展望。     

西峰市冬小麦耗水规律及其对产量的影响

利用甘肃省西峰市的气象、土壤湿度、作物发育期和产量资料,通过水量平衡方程计算冬小麦在各生育阶段的耗水量,揭示了该地区冬小麦的耗水规律、土壤湿度变化规律和水发亏缺状况。通过回归模拟建立产量－耗水量模型,确定影响产量的水分关键期。     

应用GeoStar建立数字佛像三维模型的研究

通过使用GeoStar系列软件进行数字三维佛像建模 ,进一步实现佛像的动态漫游 ,从而得出了一种基于等值线图建立数字表面模型并进行空间漫游的可行技术 ;通过研究卧佛的历史资料 ,对数字佛像模型进行修补 ,探讨了实现佛像表面三维可视化复原的方法     

磁层系统的能量输入、输出与日地耦合

用１９７８年和１９８２年３６个磁暴期间的太阳风、行星际磁场（ＩＭＦ）和地磁资料，分析和检验已有的两类太阳风－磁层能量耦合函数．结果表明：Ａｋａｓｏｆｕ提出的耦合函数ε能大致地预报亚暴和磁暴的发生。ε开始起重要作用时即出现亚暴；电离层能耗达到饱和值是发生磁暴的标志。ε与磁层体系能耗之间有接近于对数量的线性关系．用１９７８－１９８６年的资料，分析环电流和极光区电离层能耗在１２１个太阳自转周内的分布表明，日面上可能存在相对持久的活动区域     

Seasonal DOC accumulation in the Black Sea: a regional explanation for a general mechanism

During three cruises in the Black Sea, organised in July 1995 and April–May 1997, biological and chemical parameters that can influence the carbon budget were measured in the water column on the NW shelf, particularly in the mixing zone with Danube River waters. We observed in early spring (end of April–May) conditions an important input of freshwater organisms that enhanced the microbial activity in the low salinity range. High bacterial activity regenerates nitrogen in the form of nitrates, but is also responsible for an important consumption of ammonium and phosphate, leading to a high N/P ratio and a strong deficit in phosphorus. The consequence is a limitation of phytoplankton development but also a production of carbohydrates that accumulate all along the salinity gradient. These mechanisms are responsible for a seasonal accumulation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) that increases from 210 μM in winter to about 280 μM in summer. All this excess DOC disappears during winter, probably degraded by bacterial activity. The degradation of carbon-rich organic matter increases the phosphorus demand by bacteria bringing limitation to phytoplankton primary production.     

干旱条件下夏玉米耗水分析

根据田间试验结果，分析干旱年份夏玉米不同发育阶段耗水状况，对比了不同日降水量对玉米田3米剖面的水分分布状况的影响，讨论了土壤失熵过程中的不同深度的水分的变化以及土壤水对玉米干物质积累的影响，为干旱年份玉米水分的科学管理提供依据。     

历史文化名城改造中城市更新概念的衍生、想象和认知局限性——以佛山岭南天地“三旧”改造为案例

以佛山市“岭南天地”(祖庙-东华里历史文化街区)的“三旧”改造为案例,讨论历史文化名城核心区改造中城市更新概念的衍生、想象及认知局限性.尤其侧重于概念运用在历史文化名城老城核心区更新中的作用、价值及其在更新实践中的推动或限制因素.研究显示,“三旧”改造概念作为城市更新理念与佛山城市旧区改造的现实问题相互结合而衍生的“应景”产物,在运用中凝练了更新主体(地方政府)对旧区改造发展的愿望、想象和认知倾向.这使得“三旧”改造概念在历史文化名城城市更新中的应用存在部分的局限性.另一方面,“三旧”改造发展模式及其想象展望也可能只是地方政府及开发商谋求城市、产业发展和城市综合竞争力提升的一种手段.此外,研究显示,“三旧”改造概念只被地方政府和投资人用作组织与寻求他们各自关注点的一种达到目的的手段或技术,从本质上来说,这个概念对他们的吸引力在于与之相关联的资源,以及一种供使用、阐释、替换的语言.至于这个概念对历史文化名城城市更新的实用性,则似乎关注不够.