Some Probability Applications to Oil Exploration

In the first part of this paper, a portion of a sedimentary basin is subdivided conceptually into hexagons of equal area. The area of each hexagon is equal to the minimum area an oil field should have to be commercial. Hexagons can be full of oil, or empty. A field size 1 consists of a cell with oil surrounded by six empty cells; a field size 2 consists of two adjacent cells with oil surrounded by eight empty cells, etc. Principles of Percolation Theory are used to determine the probabilility distribution of the areas of the oil fields existing in this portion of the basin. The only piece of information necessary to determine this probability distribution is the Success Ratio (number of successful exploration wells/total number of exploration wells drilled in this portion of the basin). This approach has several practical applications.In the second part of this paper, a probabilistic model is introduced to predict to which extent potential oil traps are filled with oil. The model assumes that the probability that an oil unit will end up in a particular trap, is proportional to the surface area of the trap. The model predicts that independently of the distribution of the trap volumes, there will be a critical trap volume. All the traps having a volume less than this critical volume, will be filled to spill point. An equation is deduced to predict, for all traps having a volume greater than the critical, the volume of oil that can be encountered in the trap, provided the volume of the trap is known.     

"腾深99工程"的设计思路与方案

介绍了1999年4月在腾冲火山地区进行人工地震测深工程( 简称"腾深99工程")的目的意义与测线布设的设计思路,并考虑到腾冲地区的地形情况和交通条件提出了一套合理的设计方案.在现场的实际施工中收到了良好的效果.     

我国沿海地区可持续发展能力的定量研究

区域可持续发展能力是一个综合性指标。文章选取48个变量作为我国东部沿海地区可持续发展能力的原始评价指标,并运用因子分析法对原始评价指标进行降维处理,从而得到能充分反映原始指标信息的5个综合指标。文章根据综合指标的得分值对沿海12个省市区可持续发展能力进行了排序,结合各省市区的地域分布划分出5种可持续发展类型区,并对各类型区可持续发展能力的主要构成因素及其相互关系进行了分析。     

A study on sustainable development capacity of China''s coastal areas using indices dimension reduction method

1 IntroductionThe construction of sustainable development capacity (SDC) is a key element in "China's Agenda 21". In recent years, there are different comprehensions about the concept of SDC. The current paper takes the broad sense of the concept and applies it in regional study of the coastal areas of China. The so-called regional SDC means the overall strength and power of a regional socioeconomic and natural system in its way to sustainable development. The coastal areas of China cons…     

海温对辽宁省主汛期降水异常影响的统计分析

在对辽宁省主汛期降水异常的时变特征进行分析的基础上，研究了前期海温场对辽宁主汛期(7—8月)降水影响的统计特征。结果表明：1)辽宁省汛期降水异常有明显的年际、年代际变化特征，近44a降水呈减少趋势。小波分析表明存在3～5a的年际周期和10～12a的年代际周期。2)存在2个影响辽宁汛期降水异常的海温关键区及相应的关键时段，它们分别是南大西洋(1—5月)和西太平洋(3—4月)，综合考虑2个关键区可更好地预示辽宁汛期降水的异常。     

内蒙古二连盆地岩性圈闭早期形成和多期形成特征分析

根据盆地内部储层和盖层的临界条件,利用盖层排替压力曲线和储层物性曲线联合确定了岩性圈闭的发育层段,发现多个层位可发育岩性圈闭。如果盖层排替压力和储层物性随埋深的变化是按现今各曲线有规律地演化,则可以推测在盆地的埋藏早期就可以形成岩性圈闭,并且在演化过程中存在多个圈闭形成时期。二连盆地若干凹陷的实际资料也证实了岩性圈闭存在早期形成和多期形成的基本特征。岩性圈闭形成期与油气运聚史相结合对研究岩性圈闭成藏过程十分重要。     

1:5万岩屑地球化学普查工作方法及应用效果--以新疆东天山康古尔地区为例

在东天山特殊景观地球化学条件下,采用特定粒级（2～10mm）、多点采样（采样点距内等距、等量筛取五处残积岩屑）的方法,开展了康古尔区1：5万岩屑地球化学普查,相继在C3、J2-4、J5异常内发现了铜、金、银等地表矿（化）体,显示出该方法在东天山戈壁荒漠特殊景观区普查找矿中良好的找矿效果.     

边角后方交会的精度分析及布设方案选择

在推出边角后方会简捷精度估算式的基础上,分析并给出了待定点较优的选择区域,还讨论了其解的多值性问题及实质,针对边角后方交会应用中有较严格的布点限制,提出了双边单角后方交会的布设方案;文中给出了其点位与精度计算的固定公式,并附有实例难证。     

提高小概率事件预报成功率的一条途径

在给出小概率事件定义与评估小概率事件预报成功率参数的基础上,根据参数变换后的表达式推断,变小概率事件为条件概率下的大概率事件,是提高小概率事件预报成功率的一条途径。