1987年来台海关系变化对台湾入境大陆客流量的影响

两个国家(或地区)之间的政治关系是影响出入境旅游最重要的因素.1987年台湾当局解除居民来大陆探亲旅游限制.入境大陆旅游客流量急速增长:2008年开放大陆居民入岛旅游.拉开了两岸旅游流双向互动的新格局.1987-2007年的20年间,台海关系波动起伏.依据相关历史文献和统计数据.分析了两岸关系变化对台湾入境大陆旅游客流量的影响.结果发现.当台海关系恶化、危机事件爆发时,在入境客流量统计值、环比增长率和占出岛旅游比统计曲线上形成了明显的"凹形谷",采用三条理想曲线作为参照系.定量分析了7次危机事件对台湾游客入境大陆客流量的影响.其中,从1994年的千岛湖事件到1996年第四次台海危机,台海关系阴云密布.对入境大陆旅游影响最大、持续时间最长.累计损失客流量50万人次,相对损失率在11.4%.本研究为探索国际关系危机事件对出入境旅游的影响提供典型案例.     

Potential ramifications of the global economic crisis on human-mediated dispersal of marine non-indigenous species

The global economy is currently experiencing one of its biggest contractions on record. A sharp decline in global imports and exports since 2008 has affected global merchant vessel traffic, the principal mode of bulk commodity transport around the world. During the first quarter of 2009, 10% and 25% of global container and refrigerated vessels, respectively, were reported to be unemployed. A large proportion of these vessels are lying idle at anchor in the coastal waters of South East Asia, sometimes for periods of greater than 3 months. Whilst at anchor, the hulls of such vessels will develop diverse and extensive assemblages of marine biofouling species. Once back in service, these vessels are at risk of transporting higher-than-normal quantities of marine organisms between their respective global trading ports. We discuss the potential ramifications of the global economic crisis on the spread of marine non-indigenous species via global commercial shipping.     

当代中国地球物理学的发展势态与在地球系统科学研究进程中的使命

地球物理学是20世纪迅速发展起来的、涉及面极为广泛的一门边缘学科,百余年来它为科学与技术的进步,社会与经济的发展做出了卓越贡献。本世纪对地球物理学来说是机遇,也更是挑战。然而正当全球迅猛发展的新形势下,我国地球物理学却呈现了“危机”,为此必须较为完整地认识地球物理学的内涵、强化地球物理学学科的整体建设,并从地球系统科学发展的高度来厘定其中坚与先导作用已迫在眉捷。 为此,全文论述了以下几个方面的问题：(1)地球物理学的发展进程与战略意义;(2)20世纪百年来地球物理学主要的重大成就概述;(3)地球物理学研究的主体科学内涵;(4)现代中国地球物理学的导向与使命;(5)中国地球物理学面临的挑战与机遇;(6)当今中国地球物理学的发展势态;(7)诚挚的建议。     

金融危机影响下上海开发区的困境与出路

在金融危机的影响下,以出口导向型经济为主的开发区首当其冲受到冲击。上海开发区的吸引国内外投资、进出口贸易、固定资产投资、工业生产总值及工业利润等经济指标都不同程度地下滑,抽逃外资现象显现,未来发展陷入困境。究其原因,既有上海开发区受土地资源制约、发展进入新阶段的自身特点,也存在受金融危机影响、国外订单下降、国内外资本市场紧缩等原因,以及宏观政策不配套、管理体制缺陷等制度因素。应对金融危机,促进开发区稳步发展应采取实施品牌输出战略、优化外资利用结构、实行园区合理分工、进行管理模式创新等措施。     

《献给爱米丽的一朵玫瑰花》之叙事解读

威廉·福克纳的短篇小说《献给爱米丽的一朵玫瑰花》以强烈的情感和深刻的社会内涵打动了读者 ,其艺术性则更是批评界所津津乐道的。它不同凡响的叙事审美效果与离奇的情节、独特的象征、迭起的悬念以及哥特式的氛围等都有着密切的关系 ,而作者精巧的叙事策略和手法当尤为功不可没。     

Coupling maximum entropy modeling with geotagged social media data to determine the geographic distribution of tourists

Modeling the geographic distribution of tourists at a tourist destination is crucial when it comes to enhancing the destination’s resilience to disasters and crises, as it enables the efficient allocation of limited resources to precise geographic locations. Seldom have existing studies explored the geographic distribution of tourists through understanding the mechanisms behind it. This article proposes to couple maximum entropy modeling with geotagged social media data to determine the geographic distribution of tourists in order to facilitate disaster and crisis management at tourist destinations. As one of the most popular tourist destinations in the United States, San Diego was chosen as the study area to demonstrate the proposed approach. We modeled the tourist geographic distribution in the study area by quantifying the relationship between the distribution and five environmental factors, including land use, land parcel, elevation, distance to the nearest major road and distance to the nearest transit stop. The geographic distribution’s dependency on and sensitivity to the environmental factors were uncovered. The model was subsequently applied to estimate the potential impacts of one simulated tsunami disaster and one simulated traffic breakdown due to crisis events such as a political protest or a fire hazard. As such, the effectiveness of the approach has been demonstrated with specific disaster and crisis scenarios.     

The impacts of food price and income shocks on household food security and economic well-being: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

This paper examines the combined impacts of food price and income shocks on household food security and economic well-being in low-income rural communities. Using longitudinal survey data of 1800 rural households from 12 districts of Bangladesh over the period 2007–2009, we estimated a three-stage hierarchical logit model to identify the key sources of household food insecurity. The first-difference estimator was then employed to compare pre- and post-shock expenditure for those households that experienced acute food shortages and those that managed to avoid the worst impacts of the shocks. On the basis of our results we conclude that: (1) the soaring food prices of 2007–2009 unequivocally aggravated food insecurity in the rural areas of Bangladesh; (2) the subsequent income shocks of 2007–2009 contributed toward worsening food insecurity; (3) the adverse impacts of these shocks appeared to have faded over time due to labor and commodity market adjustments, regional economic growth, and domestic policy responses, leaving no profound impacts on households’ economic well-being in most cases; and (4) although the immediate adverse consequences of rising food prices were borne disproportionately by the poor, the longer term consequences were distributed more evenly across the rich and poor and were favorable for the day laborers.     

Re-cartographies of Landscape: New Narratives in Architectural Atlases

Abstract

This paper explores the potential of a different kind of counter-mapping. It focuses upon a critical reading of five different architectural atlases and argues that their construction and design reveals how ‘re-cartographies’ can narrate novel stories about places. The narrative power of these atlases is traced back to a focus upon relations between phenomena, and a careful consideration of how to map the mutability and dynamism of the built and natural environment. They offer new kinds of selection, classification and symbolisation; deploy hybrid forms to destabilize taken for granted binary distinctions between nature and culture; use montage and juxtaposition to reveal scalar linkages; re-imagine figure–ground relationships to reveal functional city forms and processes; and explore the potential of meta-structures in the relations between different maps in an atlas layout. Taken together, they show how the cartographic imagination can escape from standard and accepted orthodoxies. They also reveal the importance of a situated and historicized narrative approach to all mapping, and offer a kind of counter-mapping from an academic field, which might allow more creative professional engagement with the making of places.     

Long‐term demographic and reproductive trends in Ciona intestinalis sp. A

Ciona intestinalis sp. A (Tunicata, Ascidiacea) is a marine invertebrate with a widespread distribution and high invasive potential, yet little is known about its ecology. Here, the macrodynamics of demographic and reproductive trends were first determined using archive data covering 2002–2012. Species abundance in the central Tyrrhenian Sea (Campania, Italy ‐ NW Mediterranean) displayed Poisson distribution across 2002–2008, massive die‐off in 2009/2010 and population recovery in 2011/2012. We defined the seasonal ranges of sea surface temperature in which sampling size, animal size and reproductive status reached their highest values. In 2003/2004, self and non‐self fertilization appeared to follow reverse trends across the year. The long‐term recording run here on Ciona intestinalis sp. A provides novel insights into its population biology and ecology, and represents a valuable tool for sampling management and research planning.