当代中国地球物理学向何处去

在20世纪的百年中,地球物理学在经历了以活动论为内涵的板块构造和行星际探测双重革命的重大发展时期以后,当今正处在一个新的起点上.从全球地球科学发展趋势来看,地球物理学的未来面临着比以往任何时候都更富有挑战性,特别是在当今经济全球化和科学全球化的复杂格局下.显然,当必会展现出前所未有的发现和突破的机遇,同时也正在一个充满希望的新的转折点上.然而,当今我国的地球物理学却在不断削弱,并逐步入“消亡”,即面临着严峻的“危机”.在这21世纪的新时期,中国地球物理学向何处去?它面临的“危机”在哪里?其机遇又在何方?它在社会发展与科学进步的长河中占有什么样的地位?又扮演着什么样的角色?国人必须给予严肃的关注,以使其在中国地球物理学的发展和逐步步入世界科技强国的进程中,发挥其本能的作用,并做出应有的新贡献.为此,本文将讨论以下4个方面的问题：(1)地球物理学的发展导向和战略意义;(2)20世纪百年来地球物理学主要的重大成就;(3)当今中国地球物理学的发展势态与危机;(4)当今中国地球物理学向何处去.     

Assessment of Management Options in Marine Fisheries by Qualitative Modelling Techniques

An effective management of the rapidly dwindling marine fish resources is of great ecological, economic and social importance for the future. An over-development of commercial fisheries has brought about a multitude of negative environmental impacts, such as an accelerated exploitation of stocks or a decrease of marine biodiversity, and furthermore, a profound structural change in fish industry. However, the main reason for the non-prosperous rationing of marine resources is the lack of knowledge about certain processes as well as the non-availability of adequate steering instruments. This paper addresses the lack of conceptualization in the case of uncertain knowledge. It proposes a model approach which can be used for weak but improved decision support under the premise of vague knowledge. The usage of qualitative differential equations illustrates general patterns of overcapitalization of fishing fleets. The extension of traditional model approaches by integration of additional socio-economic phenomena in this context supplies deeper insights in the dynamics of a coupled economic and ecological system. The approach provides a set of characteristic system behaviours which can be fruitfully used for the development of future management tasks.     

Globalisers vs Communitarians: Public Intellectuals Debate Thailand's Futures

In the past decade Thailand's bubble of prosperity expanded beyond the wildest dreams of investors and burst in the faces of those who had inflated it. By being the fastest growing economy in the world as well as the epicentre of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Thailand became a cautionary tale of hypergrowth. During the boom and especially after the bubble economy burst there were heated debates in Thailand's highly energised public sphere about the accelerating pace of change, about political reform, and about the possible futures for the country and its people. All Asian countries subjected to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) regime of austerity saw their national economic sovereignty compromised, and in this respect the financial crisis of 1997 had clear parallels with previous threats to Thailand's sovereignty in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Then, as in the late 1990s, the ruling elites allowed sovereignty to be compromised.
In this essay I endeavour to map out the intellectual contours of post-boom Thailand. While accepting that these public debates are concentrated in the Bangkok megalopolis, I would suggest that it would be a mistake to dismiss the dominant themes of these debates as fatally elitist or Bangkok-centric. The public intellectuals engaging the issues have close ties to non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and other activists elsewhere in the country. At the core of these debates is the need to empower local communities in order to contend with the pressures of international financial organisations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).     

论国际贸易中的危机转嫁

本文以危机转嫁发起国国内经济的供求严重失衡为背景，分析了经济危机转嫁的基本原理，提出危机转嫁通道建设。在此基础上详细论述了危机转嫁这样一种国际化手段在解决国内危机时的决策思路，并探讨了危机转嫁对中国外贸的启示。     

Ferromanganese crusts as indicators for paleoceanographic events in the NE Atlantic

Hydrogenetic ferromanganese crusts reflect the chemical conditions of the sewater from which they formed. Fine-scale geochemical analysis of crust layers in combination with age determinations can therefore be used to investigate paleoceanographic changes which are recorded in geochemical gradients in the crusts. At Tropic seamount (off northwest Africa), uniform crust growth influenced by terrigenous input from the African continent occurred during approximately the past 12 Ma. Phosphatization of these crusts is minor. In contrast, crusts from Lion seamount, located between Madeira and the Portuguese coast, display a much more variable growth history. A pronounced increase in Ni, Cu, and Zn is observed in some intervals of the crusts, which probably reflects increased surface productivity. A thick older phosphatized generation occurs in many samples. Hydrographic profiles indicate that Mediterranean outflow water (MOW) may play an important role in the composition of these crusts.¹⁰Be dating of one sample confirms that the interruption of the MOW during the Messinian salinity crisis (6.2–5 Ma ago) resulted in changes in element composition. Sr-isotope dating of the apatite phase of the old crust generation has been carried out to obtain a minimum age for the older generation of Atlantic crusts and to determine whether crust phosphatization in the Atlantic can be related to phosphatization episodes recorded in Pacific crusts. The preliminary data show that the old phosphatized crust generation might be as old as approximately 30–40 Ma.     

Step zero for fisheries co-management: What precedes implementation

In this paper we argue that what precedes the implementation of co-management is as important as what happens later in the process. To a selected group of fisheries and coastal co-management practitioners in various parts of the world, we posed questions about how the idea was conceived, who participated in the initial discussion, and the preparation required before implementation. Responses received suggest a wide range of possible beginnings. In some cases (e.g., Barbados, Mozambique, and Zambia/Lake Kariba), the government spearheaded the process, while in others (e.g., Brazil and Malawi), the process was initiated by local entrepreneurs. In other instances, the initial discussion took place between communities and researchers (e.g., South Africa) or environmental groups (e.g., the Philippines). Learning about the conditions and actions taken prior to co-management implementation can assist us in evaluating the likelihood of success. In addition, by taking the time to understand situations in a local context, researchers can avoid premature and hasty attempts to embrace co-management schemes.     

Late Miocene stable isotope stratigraphy of SE Atlantic ODP Site 1085: Relation to Messinian events

High-resolution benthic oxygen isotope and XRF (Fe and Ca) records from Site 1085 drilled in the Mid-Cape basin (ODP Leg 175) are used to investigate global climate changes during the Late Miocene in relation to Messinian geological events. The cyclic fluctuations of the time series at Site 1085 enable us to establish a reliable chronology for the time interval 7.3–4.7 Ma. Spectral analysis of the δ¹⁸O record indicates that the 41-kyr period of orbital obliquity dominates the Late Miocene record. A global climate record was extracted from the oxygen isotopic composition of benthic foraminifera. Both long- and short-term variabilities in the climate record are discussed in terms of sea-level and deep-water temperature changes. The time interval 7.3–6.25 Ma characterized by low-amplitude δ¹⁸O variations is followed by a period marked by maximum in the δ¹⁸O values (6.25–5.57 Ma). At about 5.56 Ma, a rapid decrease in δ¹⁸O values is documented that may reflect a warming of deep-water temperature associated with a global warming period. Comparison between the timing of the oceanic isotope events and the chronology of the Mediterranean Salinity Crisis suggest that global eustatic processes were not essential in the Mediterranean Salinity Crisis history. From our data, we infer that the global warmth documented in the Early/mid-Pliocene probably started during the Late Miocene (at 5.55 Ma). At the same time, the onset of evaporite deposition in the central basin of the Mediterranean Sea took place. Sharp changes in the sedimentation rates, mainly driven by terrigenous input at this site, are observed during the Messinian Stage.     

综合信息矿产预测理论在危机矿山资源预测中的应用思考

危机矿山有危机和假危机之分，假危机矿山深中及周围仍具有找矿潜力，应用综合信息矿产预测理论进行矿山资源预测可以发现新的矿床类型或新矿种，圈定新的矿体，寻找深部隐伏矿床和难识别矿床，提出了综合信息矿产预测理论在危机矿山资源预测中的一般思路。     

1987年来台海关系变化对台湾入境大陆客流量的影响

两个国家(或地区)之间的政治关系是影响出入境旅游最重要的因素.1987年台湾当局解除居民来大陆探亲旅游限制.入境大陆旅游客流量急速增长:2008年开放大陆居民入岛旅游.拉开了两岸旅游流双向互动的新格局.1987-2007年的20年间,台海关系波动起伏.依据相关历史文献和统计数据.分析了两岸关系变化对台湾入境大陆旅游客流量的影响.结果发现.当台海关系恶化、危机事件爆发时,在入境客流量统计值、环比增长率和占出岛旅游比统计曲线上形成了明显的"凹形谷",采用三条理想曲线作为参照系.定量分析了7次危机事件对台湾游客入境大陆客流量的影响.其中,从1994年的千岛湖事件到1996年第四次台海危机,台海关系阴云密布.对入境大陆旅游影响最大、持续时间最长.累计损失客流量50万人次,相对损失率在11.4%.本研究为探索国际关系危机事件对出入境旅游的影响提供典型案例.     

咸海流域水资源利用的区域合作问题分析

咸海的主要水源为阿姆河和锡尔河,自20世纪60年代以来由于人口的增加和农业政策导致的灌溉面积的迅速扩大,河流径流被大量引入且消耗于农业灌溉,使得入湖地表径流大幅度减少。原本是地球上的第四大湖泊的咸海,目前面积已缩小到只有原来的十分之一,并分离形成三个主要的残留湖,湖泊及湖滨的生态环境极度恶化。同时,巨大的干涸裸露湖床已成为盐尘和有毒物的发源地,严重威胁周边地区的人类健康。中亚五国自独立后于1992年签订了《中亚五国水协定》,旨在通过协定和后续协议加强区域合作扭转咸海流域严重的水危机与生态危机。但事与愿违,危机事态未得到抑制且有扩大趋势。通过对相关事态进行的深入分析,认为除改变该地区经济发展模式以减少农业用水外,在公平合理分配水资源的基础上加强国家间的合作,开展全流域水资源的综合开发、利用与管理才是扭转目前危机的最有效的途径。