当前经济形势与大学生就业核心竞争力的培养

立足当前经济环境,分析了毕业生就业面临的机遇和挑战,提出从优化人文素质、强化人格培养,调整培养机制、优化知识结构,强化创业教育、增强创新品质和加强职业规划、整合就业资源等方面提升毕业生就业核心竞争力。     

基于“水—能源—食物—生态”纽带因果关系和贝叶斯网络的锡尔河流域用水分析

跨界流域水资源利用系统因受气候变化、人口增长、政治博弈、生态反馈等许多因素的互馈影响,包含复杂的“水—能源—食物—生态”纽带因果关系,形成具有高度不确定性的复杂非线性系统。传统水资源规划方法中缺少对这种复杂纽带关系的约束,而目前研究这类纽带关系多基于耦合多个模型、集成建模的方法,数据需求大、对复杂因果关系的不确定性模拟能力不足。而贝叶斯网络能以概率分布代替参数确定值来模拟系统中因果关系的不确定性、同时减少数据需求。本文利用贝叶斯概率网络,选取锡尔河流域为研究对象,量化这一因不合理用水而导致咸海生态危机的跨界内陆河流域“水—能源—食物—生态”纽带中的因果关系。结果表明贝叶斯网络能有效地模拟纽带中因果关系的强弱与不确定性,分析1970—2015年间不同时期影响咸海入湖水量的主要因素。为用水预测与流域水资源利用管理提供了系统性认知的基础,并展现出在较低模型复杂度和成本下建模的潜力。苏联时期,咸海入湖水量对农业开发增长的灌溉用水、上游水库建设的蓄水过程和径流量等较敏感;苏联解体后,咸海入湖水量对下游国家不合理使用的灌溉用水及上游水库蓄水量等节点高度敏感。短期内,需提高洗盐与灌溉用水效率,改良种植结构、增加粮食作物占比,并预防干旱危害;长期而言,通过普及先进滴灌技术,能大幅节约农业用水,在50%和80%的滴灌普及率下,新增咸海入湖水量将达到6.4 km ³和9.6 km ³以上,有望逐步缓解咸海生态危机。     

扩散性危机影响下公众心理韧性空间特征初探

当前危机管理研究多从公共管理、社会学和心理学等角度揭示恐慌发生的规律,鲜有研究揭示其地理时空特征。因此,从地理学的视角出发,利用百度搜索指数,探索公众恐慌心理的基本空间结构和变动特征,并尝试捕捉心理韧性的空间影响因素。主要得到3点结论：① 在当前互联网高度通达的背景下,危机信息传播速度极快,由此引发的恐慌情绪已无明显空间扩散过程,而是瞬时传播至全国范围,且未出现明显的信息盲区;② 距危机发生地的距离显著影响公众心理韧性,随着距离的增加,公众面对危机的恐慌心理没有呈现出距离衰减的空间规律,也不完全符合“心理台风眼”假说,而是呈现出以疫情较严重的地区为多个中心的涟漪状起伏的圈层结构,恐慌波动指数（PR Index）在1.112~1.947变动;③ 公众恐慌心理对危机信息的韧性差异,受信息类型和空间距离交互影响,表现为紊流状的空间异质结构。建议未来危机信息管理需要重视政策措施的空间区划,根据与危机发生地的空间关系,来决定重点发布何种信息,从而最大效度地减少公众恐慌。     

有关深部地质填图和立体地质填图的几个问题

大多数20世纪下半叶建立的矿山,资源已近枯竭或出现了资源危机,都需要寻找接续资源。为此提出在成矿远景好的地区有计划地开展“深部地质填图”和“立体地质填图”的设想。“深部地质填图”是找寻隐伏矿和半隐伏矿的深部地质研究的战略性工作,“立体地质填图”则是其战术性工作。两者既有联系又有区别。前者是为了寻找隐伏矿、半隐伏矿的“靶区”,或为“靶区”提供背景地质资料;后者是为了找到“新矿体”、“新矿层”,扩大矿床规模和矿山远景。“深部地质填图”要采用地质、物探、化探及少量钻探等综合手段,提交比例尺不小于1∶5万的地表地质图和深部地质图;“立体地质填图”主要是按一定间距(100～200m)进行钻探,结合物探剖面,发现新矿体,提交立体地质图。当前应全面开展资源危机矿山外围的“深部地质填图”,积极慎重地进行“立体地质填图”试点,并将此项工作作为一项独立的地质工作纳入地质调查之中。     

全球金融危机与贵州矿业产业的发展——以铝及铝加工业为例

全球金融危机是经济发展周期的重要拐点,对全球和我国不同产业的发展会产生不同的影响。贵州总体上具有资源型经济结构,其中矿业产业占有重要的地位和作用。由于全球金融危机影响,矿业的生存空间被严重压缩,贵州虽然地处内地,仍然难以幸免。但不同类型的资源产业所受到的影响差异很大,其中,内向型为主的煤炭产业所受影响小,而外向型为主的磷及磷化工产业和铝及铝加工产业所受影响明显。通过深入分析全球金融危机前后贵州铝及铝加工产业的发展状况不难看到,金融危机在带来矿产品价格下降、矿产企业利润大幅度下降等不利影响的同时,也为解决资源浪费严重和后备资源保障程度下降、矿山整合与铝土矿资源集中提供了有利时机,还使得贵州铝工业发展相对滞后和产品附加值不够高的现状有望改善,促使政府和企业朝着生态矿业和节能减排的方向发展。为了尽快摆脱金融危机的负面影响,抓住有利因素迅速壮大贵州的矿业产业,一方面应大力支持与鼓励地勘单位、矿山企业、重点氧化铝、电解铝企业和铝加工等后续企业大跨度整合,使资源的勘探、采掘、加工与利用等构成有机的整体,发展生态矿业;另一方面应积极盘活贵州地勘队伍多年来积累形成的矿产信息资源等无形资产,同时创造条件,支持与鼓励我省地勘队伍走出国门,到其它省区和国外寻找新的矿产地和获取矿权。另外,还须通过完善矿权管理,进一步整顿矿业秩序,加大环境保护与污染治理力度等措施,为矿业企业的健康发展创造良好规范的市场环境。     

The synthetic seismic expression of the Messinian salinity crisis from onshore records: Implications for shallow‐ to deep‐water correlations

The onshore–offshore correlation of sedimentary successions is a common problem in basin analysis, but it becomes critical for the full understanding of the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC), a complex array of palaeoenvironmental events which affected the Mediterranean basin at the end of the Miocene. The outcrop records show that the Messinian stratigraphic architectures may be highly complex as the deposits of the different MSC evolutionary stages can be lithologically similar and separated by erosional surfaces and/or morphostructural highs. The correct definition of the nature and stratigraphic position of Messinian deposits in offshore areas through seismic data may be almost impossible, especially where core data are sparse. To bridge the gap between onshore and offshore records, we have built synthetic seismic sections from well‐constrained outcrop successions. Our results provide useful insights and warnings for the interpretation of offshore data, pointing out that MSC units having different age, nature and depositional settings, may show similar seismic facies and geometries. Conversely, the same deposit may result in different seismic facies, either with parallel and high‐amplitude reflections or even transparent or chaotic due to interference patterns of seismic reflections related to dominant frequency. It follows that a correct interpretation of the nature and age of deep‐seated Messinian deposits can only be obtained through the integration of seismic and core data, and considering the onshore record. The application of our approach to the Balearic Promontory results in an alternative interpretation with respect to previous models. We show that this offshore area has good analogues in the onshore of the Betic Cordillera and includes both shallow and intermediate depth sub‐basins that underwent a strong post‐Messinian subsidence.     

咸海流域水文水资源演变与咸海生态危机出路分析

中亚的咸海问题已成为全球性的生态和社会问题,研究咸海流域水文水资源、经济社会发展演变与气候变化,对深入理解中亚地区咸海危机形成机理、未来发展趋势、探讨咸海生态危机出路具有重要意义,对类似区域跨界河流和我国西北干旱区水资源开发利用具有重要借鉴意义. 介绍了中亚五国咸海流域的水资源及其开发利用情况,重点分析了中亚五国咸海流域农业灌溉的发展演变、近80a来咸海流域气候变化趋势与主要河流水文演变情势及咸海水文特征演变. 结果表明,咸海生态危机完全是由人类自导并日益严重的水资源-生态-环境与社会危机,短期内难以遏制,长期来看也无法逆转. 结合咸海危机生态环境效应,讨论了3个跨流域调水方案拯救咸海的利弊与前景,探讨了立足于流域本身拯救咸海的综合治理措施. 最后,提出了咸海危机经验教训对我国内陆河水资源开发利用的若干启示.     

水资源危机论

水既是战略物资又是生命的基础。水资源的安全关系到社会可持续的发展,关系到人类自身的生态系统的生存和发展,关系到国家的稳定、主权和安全。全球人口的增长、气候变暖、环境污染的加重、城市化进程的加快等都是影响水资源质和量的关键因素。全球水资源随着时间的推移日趋紧缺乃至危机;天然水分类表明,淡水资源是水资源最重要的成分。含有害成分的淡水资源是地方病的致病因素。中国水资源虽然不算少,但人口13亿,人均水资源量排在世界第128位,属于贫水国,并且水资源时空分布不平衡。面对中国淡水资源严重短缺问题,动员全民节水是现实可行的,但学习国外先进治水经验,加强水资源管理的国家级决策至为关键。     

Season‐based rainfall–runoff modelling using the probability‐distributed model (PDM) for large basins in southeastern Brazil

Southeastern Brazil is characterized by seasonal rainfall variability. This can have a great social, economic, and environmental impact due to both excessive and deficient water availability. During 2014 and 2015, the region experienced one of the most severe droughts since 1960. The resulting water crisis has seriously affected water supply to the metropolitan region of São Paulo and hydroelectric power generation throughout the entire country. This research considered the upstream basins of the southeastern Brazilian reservoirs Cantareira (2,279 km²; water supply) and Emborcação (29,076 km²), Três Marias (51,576 km²), Furnas (52,197 km²), and Mascarenhas (71,649 km²; hydropower) for hydrological modelling. It made the first attempt at configuring a season‐based probability‐distributed model (PDM‐CEMADEN) for simulating different hydrological processes during wet and dry seasons. The model successfully reproduced the intra‐annual and interannual variability of the upstream inflows during 1985–2015. The performance of the model was very satisfactory not only during the wet, dry, and transitional seasons separately but also during the whole period. The best performance was obtained for the upstream basin of Furnas, as it had the highest quality daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and logarithmic Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.92 and 0.93 for the calibration period 1984–2001, 0.87 and 0.88 for the validation period 2001–2010, and 0.93 and 0.90 for the validation period 2010–2015, respectively. Results indicated that during the wet season, the upstream basins have a larger capacity and variation of soil water storage, a larger soil water conductivity, and quicker surface water flow than during the dry season. The added complexity of configuring a season‐based PDM‐CEMADEN relative to the traditional model is well justified by its capacity to better reproduce initial conditions for hydrological forecasting and prediction. The PDM‐CEMADEN is a simple, efficient, and easy‐to‐use model, and it will facilitate early decision making and implement adaptation measures relating to disaster prevention for reservoirs with large‐sized upstream basins.     

危机矿山重磁资料精细处理与解释:以湖北省大冶铁矿为例

针对湖北大冶矿区复杂的地质问题, 基于高精度重磁实测数据, 采用三维重磁数据概率分析和物性反演技术, 实现了大冶矿区重磁资料的精细化处理与解释, 为大冶危机矿山深部及外围找矿提供了重要的参考.在无约束条件下对高磁异常源进行了三维概率成像反演, 并结合地质先验信息完成了矿区航磁异常的带地形人机交互三维反演, 预测了矿区沉积岩类与闪长岩体接触带的空间延展形态, 定量反演了矿区的三维物性特征, 反演结果显示在矿区深部(1000m以下) 及接触带弯折部位为有利的找矿区域, 目前通过实钻已得到证实.