论城市犯罪的空间防控

犯罪是当代城市最大的社会问题,对犯罪实施有效的空间防控是解决城市犯罪问题的重要途径。在对城市犯罪空间防控的必要性和可能性进行理论辨析的基础上,重点论述了城市空间环境的形态布局、空间盲区的综合治理和空间地域的防控管理等犯罪空间防控的主要实施途径。     

Contingent Urban Geographies of Violent Crime: Racial Segregation and the Impact of Public Housing in Atlanta

Neighborhood variations in crime incidence rates are most commonly interpreted through the lens of social disorganization theory, or a "communities and crime" perspective. This approach typically articulates explanation for crime by focusing on the characteristics of communities—a unitary scale most commonly equated with neighborhoods. We argue that this perspective fails to recognize the importance of broader urban geographic contexts, and offer an extension that sees geographically contingent processes functioning at multiple scales simultaneously. We develop this perspective applied to the "spread effects" of public housing on violent crime in surrounding neighborhoods: these spread effects are conditioned by the nature of the urban contexts through which they operate. Specifically, deeply divided and racialized patterns of residential segregation at least partially define the contexts that condition public housing's effect on crime. We examine our perspective using early 1990s block group data for the City of Atlanta and find substantial evidence in support of our perspective. In particular, we find that Techwood Homes, the nation's first federally constructed public housing project, exerted different geographic spread effects in predominantly White than in predominantly Black portions of the city. By failing to recognize the complexity and contingency of public housing's geographic effect on crime in surrounding neighborhoods, previous approaches substantially overestimate crime in White areas, and underestimate crime in Black areas.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Portable Utopia: Glasgow and the United States 1820–1920. Bernard Aspinwall. Studies in Russian Historical Geography. James H. Bater and R. A. French, eds. Water and Sanitation: Economic and Sociological Perspectives. Peter G. Bourne, ed. Green Politics. Fritjof Capra and Charlene Spretnak. The Southern Cone: Realities of the Authoritarian State. César N. Caviedes. Women in Third World Development. Sue Ellen Charlton. Land Management: New Directions. David Chiddick and Alan Millington, eds. Geography and Ethnic Pluralism. Colin Clarke, David Ley, Ceri Peach, eds. Geomorphological Hazards in Los Angeles. R. U. Cooke. Regional Impacts of United States-Mexico Economic Relations. Alfonso Corona and Lay James Gibson. eds. Patterns of Jobs and Geographic Mobility. Torvald Gerger. Cities and Sickness: Health Care in Urban America. Ann Lennarson Greer and Scott Greer, eds. Neighborhoods: Their Place in Urban Life. Howard W. Hallman. Development and the Rural-Urban Divide. John Harriss and Mick Moore, eds. Patterns of Undocumented Migration: Mexico and the United States. Richard C. Jones, ed. Central Place Theory. Leslie J. King. The Geography of Western Europe: A Socio-economic Survey. Paul L. Knox. Regions and Resources: Strategies for Development. David T. Krisge, Daniel A. Seiver, Oliver S. Goldsmith and Michael J. Scott. Geography of Crowding and Human Response. A Study of Ahmedabad City. K. M. Kulkarni. Haciendo Pueblo. The Development of a Guadalajaran Suburb. Kathleen Logan. The Imperial Lion: Human Dimensions of Wildlife Management in Central Africa. Stewart A. Marks. Water in the Hispanic Southwest: A Social and Legal History, 1550–1850. Michael C. Meyer. Imlil: A Moroccan Mountain Community in Change. James A. Miller. Tourism in Canada: Selected Issues and Options. Peter E. Murphy, ed. David Harvey's Geography. John L. Paterson. Raster Scanning, Processing and Plotting of Cartographic Documents. Donna J. Peuquet and A. Raymond Boyle. The USSR and the Muslim World: Issues in Domestic and Foreign Policy. Yaacov Ro'i, ed. Environmental Perception and Behavior: An Inventory and Prospect. Thomas F. Saarinen, David Seamon, and James L. Sell. Incised channels, Morphology, Dynamics, and Control. Stanley A. Schumm, Michael D. Harvey, and Chester C. Watson. The Gap Between Rich and Poor: Contending Perspectives on the Political Economy of Development. Mitchell A. Seligson, ed. Twentieth-Century Richmond. Planning, Politics and Race. Christopher Silver. Land Conservation and Development: Examples of Land-Use Planning Projects and Programs. F. R. Steiner and H. N. van Lier, eds. Biogeography: Recent Advances and Future Directions. J. A. Taylor, ed. Late Quaternary Environments of the Soviet Union. A. A. Velichko, ed. H. E. Wright, Jr. and C. W. Barnosky, eds.     

西南地区拐卖犯罪时空特征与影响因素

以拐卖犯罪的重灾区也是典型拐出源区的西南地区（云南、贵州、四川、重庆）为研究区,利用2008—2020年中国裁判文书审判数据,综合运用文本分析、数理统计、空间分析和负二项回归检验等方法,探索西南地区拐卖犯罪的时空分异与影响因素。结果表明：1）时间分布上,拐卖犯罪整体高发于2009—2014年,呈“三峰两谷”波浪形变化,“三峰”出现于2009、2012与2014年,而于2010和2013年出现“两谷”;最高发月份为12月,拐卖妇女次高发月份集中在3、6、7、9月,而拐卖儿童次高发月份为5、7、8、9月。2）空间分布上,拐卖犯罪呈显著的“东南—西北”轴线状分布,与川渝、云贵交界线高度吻合,省际交界区域是热点地域;省域空间分布以云南省为最,重庆市最次;微观地点多发生在人流量大的医疗、车站等场所以及乡村住宅附近。3）拐卖犯罪案发量受人口性别比和城乡居民最低生活保障人数的正向影响,而农村居民人均可支配收入、城镇登记失业率、少年儿童抚养比和客运量具有负向影响;其中,人口性别比、客运量和城乡居民最低生活保障人数对拐卖妇女犯罪影响更大。最后,基于影响因素分析从加强社会建设、创新预防机制、强化打击机制3个方面提出防控治理对策。     

基于加权时空关联规则的公交扒窃犯罪模式识别

近年来,公交扒窃案呈上升趋势,为了预防和打击此类犯罪,需要有效识别其犯罪模式。传统的犯罪分析方法,往往将时间和空间分割开来研究,本文则引入加权时空关联规则进行挖掘分析,试图找出公交扒窃的案发时空规律。首先,对公交扒窃数据进行时间粒度和空间粒度的划分,将公交主要运营时间以2 h为单位划分成等间隔的公交时段并对其进行编码,将公交线路按公交站点划分成公交路段;其次,对数据进行空间分析和时间归并,提取出每个案件发生的公交路段和案发时段,并将案发时段归并到公交时段中;再次,由于每个公交路段的案发率不同,其对结果的贡献率也不同,因此,给每个路段赋予一个权重;最后,用Apriori算法进行加权关联规则挖掘,得到公交扒窃的时空犯罪模式。研究表明,这种挖掘方法具有以下特点:(1)按公交站点进行公交路段的划分具有创新性;(2)通过对案发路段的加权,能将空间位置重要程度的差异区分开来,更符合实际情况;(3)挖掘过程中同时考虑了时间与空间属性。     

犯罪防控警务策略及其时空效益评估研究进展

犯罪防控警务策略是犯罪地理研究的重要话题之一,西方国家在此方面展开了大量研究,而我国的相关研究仍较缺乏。本文从不同类型犯罪防控警务策略特点、犯罪防控实验及其防控效益评估3个方面出发,综述国内外研究进展。研究结论包括以下4个方面：① 社区警务、问题导向警务、热点警务和智能警务为4大主要犯罪防控警务策略。社区警务以社区为单位,通过警民合作以减少犯罪;问题导向警务通过SARA（Scanning, Analysis, Response, Assessment）找出并解决社会中存在的问题;热点警务基于犯罪热点制定警务方案,对犯罪热点地区加以干预以降低犯罪率;智能警务利用大数据,人工智能等先进技术开展警务防控;② 国外的犯罪防控实验大多是通过划分实验组和对照组的方式,对比警务策略干预前后的犯罪变化。大部分警务实验以热点警务为主,且在试验区能有效降低犯罪,但同时存在犯罪转移或效益扩散现象;国内犯罪防控实验的研究仍有待开展;③ 传统的警务防控评估主要从破案率、公众安全感和社会经济效益评估3方面出发。鉴于犯罪转移或效益扩散的存在,国内外学者提出了加权位移商（WDQ）、时空加权位移商（STWDQ）、双重差分（DID）、倾向评分匹配（PSM）、双重差分倾向评分匹配（PSM-DID）和基于双重差分（DID）的象限法评估警务时空效益,丰富了警务防控评估体系。整体而言,国外对犯罪防控警务策略与时空效益评估研究得较充分但仍存在不足,而国内尚处于起步阶段。本文在最后探讨了中国警务策略可深入研究的方向。     

‘Through children’s eyes’: childhood, place and the fear of crime

This article seeks to bring young respondents more sharply into focus by considering fear of crime ‘through children’s eyes’. By incorporating children’s perspectives it is argued that more inclusive and integrative community safety initiatives may arise. Inspired by the recent flowering of research undertaken in childhood studies by social and cultural geographers, the study seeks to make a theoretical, empirical and spatial contribution to debates in the field. Based on the findings of a large-scale school survey, the responses indicate that children have an acute place-based sensitivity to a range of highly relevant community safety issues. This includes detailed reflections concerning the place of policing, boredom, youth gangs, motorcars and drugs in their neighbourhoods. It is suggested that the inclusion of children’s accounts into geographical debates not only enriches our knowledge of childhood studies, but also adds detail and texture to our understandings of fear of crime.     

空间视角下中国城市财产犯罪成因分析

针对已有的城市犯罪成因分析多是基于大尺度的这一情况,该文利用2007、2010与2012年韶关市城区财产犯罪空间分布数据及城市地表土地利用数据,并顾及城市地表特征、警务对策等因素,在相对微观尺度上对城市财产犯罪成因进行分析。结果表明:在相对微观的尺度上,财产犯罪仍具有显著的空间自相关特征;不同类型用地与财产犯罪案件密度具有不同程度的相关关系;监控点、出租屋、娱乐场所、路网密度及用地类型混合度与财产犯罪具有显著的相关关系。该文结论可为我国城市规划部门制定规划方案、为警务部门制定警务对策提供决策支持,以科学规划城市布局、合理分配警力资源从而缩减城市财产犯罪空间。     

Arrest Rates during Natural Resource Development: Drilling,Drinking and Disorderly Conduct in the Marcellus Shale Region

Increased criminal activity has been linked to rapid natural resource development, particularly in rural areas. These “boomtowns” often experience rapid population growth, resulting in “social disruption”. This research examines one component of social disruption, crime, in the context of unconventional energy development in Pennsylvania. We employ quantitative longitudinal methods to examine the association between county-level arrest rates for four types of minor crimes and unconventional natural gas well density in Pennsylvania from 2005 to 2014 controlling for demographic and socioeconomic variables. Results indicate that well density is positively associated with driving under the influence and disorderly conduct arrest rates, but is not associated with arrest rates for drug abuse violations or public drunkenness. Findings suggest the need to look beyond broad categories of criminal activity to particular types of crime related to energy development, and to what extent these indicate broader patterns of social disruption.     

基于犯罪空间分异和建成环境的公共场所侵财犯罪热点预测

机器学习是当前犯罪热点预测的主流方法,随机森林算法因需要的数据量较小、有较好的预测能力和预测精确度、且有较高的可理解度,更是被广泛应用,代表地理环境和建成环境的多源数据也被广泛用于模型改进的尝试实践中,但这些实践都只考虑研究区整体的预测精度变化情况,并未区分不同区域犯罪热点预测结果的差异及其原因。因此,本文以公共场所侵财犯罪为例,根据历史犯罪分布情况及过往犯罪热点分布规律,将研究区分为稳定高发热点网格、较高发热点网格、偶发热点网格及非热点网格这4类,并依据社会失序理论、日常活动理论和犯罪模式理论,选取城中村范围、路网密度及POI（餐饮、娱乐、商场3类设施）密度这3个具有代表性的协变量加入到随机森林预测模型中,探讨预测结果精度的变化情况。根据2017年26个双周的犯罪热点预测实验的预测结果,得到以下结论：加入协变量后,研究区整体、稳定高发热点网格及较高发热点网格的预测精度都有不同程度的提高,分区模型的精度显著高于整体模型的精度,说明考虑空间分异对提高模型精度起重要作用。