近50 a塔里木河流域生长季大风日数变化特征及对特色林果业的影响

大风是塔里木河流域特色林果业的主要气象灾害. 在对塔里木河流域44个气象站大风资料进行质量控制基础上, 统计分析了1960-2011年作物生长季节(3-10月)月大风日数. 结果表明: 近50 a来塔里木河流域生长季节内各月大风日数的长期变化具有显著的递减趋势, 递减速度为0.8~2.6 d·(10a)^-1, 趋势系数为-0.37~-0.8, 通过了95％的秩检验; 但二次和三次系数为正, 反映出生长季节大风日数近期呈现回升的趋势. 周期分析发现, 生长季节大风日数存在11~15 a左右的中期振荡, 5~8 a的短周期振荡, 以及5 a以下的小扰动. 虽然从更高的20 a频域尺度看, 20世纪80年代中期之后是大风的少发时期, 但从15~16 a周期上看, 生长季节大风日数亦开始有回升的趋势. 尤其是在春末及夏秋(4-9月)塔里木河流域特色林果业的关键生长时期, 大风日数占整个生长期(3-10月)的89%. 虽然, 近10 a平均每年大风日数只有20世纪60年代的一半, 但每年平均也有7 d之多, 并没有脱离大风的威胁, 而且近期大风日数还有回升的趋势. 因此, 春末及夏秋(4-9月)是塔里木河流域特色林果业的重点防风时期. 从空间分布上看, 南疆东部平均每年大风日数1~2 d, 是塔里木河流域生长季节防风重点地区.     

不停车倒杆式回转器的设计

就不停车倒杆的原理及实现不停车倒杆的两个重要条件即卡盘夹紧力和卡盘油缸工作压力及工作行程作了较全面的介绍，并介绍了使用效果。     

Spatially distributed long‐term hydrologic simulation using a continuous SCS CN method‐based hybrid hydrologic model

A continuous Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) method that considers time‐varied SCS CN values was developed based on the original SCS CN method with a revised soil moisture accounting approach to estimate run‐off depth for long‐term discontinuous storm events. The method was applied to spatially distributed long‐term hydrologic simulation of rainfall‐run‐off flow with an underlying assumption for its spatial variability using a geographic information systems‐based spatially distributed Clark's unit hydrograph method (Distributed‐Clark; hybrid hydrologic model), which is a simple few parameter run‐off routing method for input of spatiotemporally varied run‐off depth, incorporating conditional unit hydrograph adoption for different run‐off precipitation depth‐based direct run‐off flow convolution. Case studies of spatially distributed long‐term (total of 6 years) hydrologic simulation for four river basins using daily NEXRAD quantitative precipitation estimations demonstrate overall performances of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) 0.62, coefficient of determination (R²) 0.64, and percent bias 0.33% in direct run‐off and E_NS 0.71, R² 0.72, and percent bias 0.15% in total streamflow for model result comparison against observed streamflow. These results show better fit (improvement in E_NS of 42.0% and R² of 33.3% for total streamflow) than the same model using spatially averaged gauged rainfall. Incorporation of logic for conditional initial abstraction in a continuous SCS CN method, which can accommodate initial run‐off loss amounts based on previous rainfall, slightly enhances model simulation performance; both E_NS and R² increased by 1.4% for total streamflow in a 4‐year calibration period. A continuous SCS CN method‐based hybrid hydrologic model presented in this study is, therefore, potentially significant to improved implementation of long‐term hydrologic applications for spatially distributed rainfall‐run‐off generation and routing, as a relatively simple hydrologic modelling approach for the use of more reliable gridded types of quantitative precipitation estimations.     

河西走廊东部大风气候特征及预报

利用河西走廊东部1971—2010年4个气象站大风（≥6级,即10min平均风速≥10.8～13.8m/s）资料,系统分析了该区大风的时空分布、强度和持续性等气候特征。结果表明,河西走廊东部大风天气主要发生在山区和沙漠边缘;年、年代际大风日数总体呈减少趋势,3—5月是大风的高发期,占全年大风日数的34.8%～56.8%,其次是2月、6月和11月;各强度大风日数的变率较大,随着大风强度的增强,大风日数迅速减少;大风天气具有持续性特征,最大风速大多出现在持续大风时段内。采用2003—2007年逐日20时ECMWF数值预报格点场资料,按照Press准则进行预报因子初选,运用逐步回归预报方法进行预报因子精选,使用最优子集回归建立大风预报方程,并用双评分准则（CSC,couple score criterion）确定各季节各地大风预报全局最优的显著性方程,预报方程通过了α=0.01的显著性检验。预报方程回代拟合率为66.7%～73.4%,预报准确率为58.8%～67.5%,达到了一定的预报水平,可为大风的业务预报提供客观有效的指导产品。采用最大靠近原则确定了大风预报临界值和预报、预警的级别。     

强台风“黑格比”造成桂东南大风浅析

对2008年第14号强台风"黑格比"路径、强度及造成桂东南大风的成因进行了分析,发现桂东南出现大风与"黑格比"路径、副高引导气流、"黑格比"本身强度、"黑格比"的移速等密切相关。     

2010年9月大气环流和天气分析

2010年9月大气环流主要特征如下:北半球极区呈单极涡型,中高纬地区环流呈4波型分布,冰岛东部上空500hPa高度场有120 gpm正距平;西北太平洋副热带高压强度偏强,西脊点位于24°N、100°E附近,比常年偏西偏北。2010年9月全国平均气温17.1℃,比常年偏高1.1℃;全国降水量为85.1 mm,比常年同期偏多19.7 mm。月内出现了3次较明显的冷空气过程和7次降水过程,有4个台风生成,分别名为"玛瑙"、"莫兰蒂"、"凡亚比"和"马勒卡",其中"莫兰蒂"和"凡亚比"登陆我国,造成重大灾害。     

一次春季冷锋过境引起的大风天气分析

利用常规探测资料、地面加密观测资料及NCEP再分析资料,对2009年4月15日新乡罕见大风天气的天气形势及物理量场特征进行了诊断分析。结果表明:西伯利亚强冷空气南下与华北低压发展共同造成的强气压梯度、高低空强的冷平流是造成此次强风的主要原因;地面冷锋前的上升运动与高空急流入口区次级环流上升气流的叠加,为深对流发展提供了深厚的垂直环流发展条件;高空西风急流配合适合的垂直环流,产生动量下传,是超出一般强度的冷空气大风产生的原因;ECMWF和T639数值预报产品均成功地预报出了此次强风过程。     

基础地理信息系统的特性初析

基础地理信息系统是专门用来采集、存储、管理、表达、分发基础地理信息的计算机化信息系统。其既是一个面向全社会各类用户、应用面最广的公益型地理信息资源,也为人们采用数字形式表示和分析现实空间世界提供了数字化建模、集成化管理、网络化处理的手段。其建设、运行、维护、服务与更新涉及到一系列重要的理论和技术问题．有着特定的研究内容。本文首先简要地论述了基础地理信息系统的两大作用,其次从尺度性、现势性、共享性、普适性等4个方面讨论了其“资源”特性．既而分析了其提供的数字化建模、集成化管理、定量化处理、灵性化服务、智能化分析、动态化更新等工具,然后讨论了基础地理信息系统建设与更新等提出的研究需求,最后简要讨论了今后的努力方向。     

Nutrient dynamics in an alpine headwater stream: use of continuous water quality sensors to examine responses to wildfire and precipitation events

Stream water quality can change substantively during diurnal cycles, discrete flow events, and seasonal time scales. In this study, we assessed event responses in surface water nutrient concentrations and biogeochemical parameters through the deployment of continuous water quality sensors from March to October 2011 in the East Fork Jemez River, located in northern New Mexico, USA. Events included two pre‐fire non‐monsoonal precipitation events in April, four post‐fire precipitation events in August and September (associated with monsoonal thunderstorms), and two post‐fire non‐monsoonal precipitation events in October. The six post‐fire events occurred after the Las Conchas wildfire burned a significant portion of the contributing watershed (36%) beginning in June 2011. Surface water nitrate (NO₃? N) concentrations increased by an average of 50% after pre‐fire and post‐fire non‐monsoonal precipitation events and were associated with small increases in turbidity (up to 15 NTU). Beginning 1 month after the start of the large regional wildfire, monsoonal precipitation events resulted in large multi‐day increases in dissolved NO₃? N (6 × background levels), dissolved phosphate (100 × background levels), specific conductance (5 × background levels), and turbidity (>100 × background levels). These periods also corresponded with substantial sags in dissolved oxygen (<4 mg l^?1) and pH (<6.5). The short duration and rapid rates of change during many of these flow events, particularly following wildfire, highlight the importance of continuous water quality monitoring to quantify the timing and magnitude of event responses in streams and to examine large water quality excursions linked to catchment disturbance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the failure of a discrete axial chain using a continualized nonlocal Continuum Damage Mechanics approach

The failure of a discrete elastic‐damage axial system is investigated using both a discrete and an equivalent continuum approach. The Discrete Damage Mechanics approach is based on a microstructured model composed of a series of periodic elastic‐damage springs (axial Discrete Damage Mechanics lattice system). Such a discrete damage system can be associated with the finite difference formulation of a Continuum Damage Mechanics evolution problem. Several analytical and numerical results are presented for the tensile failure of this axial damage chain under its own weight. The nonlocal Continuum Damage Mechanics models examined in this paper are mainly built from a continualization procedure applied to centered or uncentered finite difference schemes. The asymptotic expansion of the first‐order upward difference equations leads to a first‐order nonlocal model, whereas the asymptotic expansion of the centered finite difference equations leads to a second‐order nonlocal Eringen's approach. To complete this study, a phenomenological nonlocal gradient approach is also examined and compared with the first continualization methods. A comparison of the discrete and the continuous problems for the chains shows the effectiveness of the new micromechanics‐based nonlocal Continuum Damage modeling, especially for capturing scale effects. For both continualized approaches, the length scale of the nonlocal models depends only on the cell size, while for the so‐called phenomenological approach, the length scale may depend on the loading parameter. This apparent load‐dependent length scale, already discussed in the literature with numerical arguments, is found to be sensitive to the postulated structure of the nonlocal model calibrated according to a lattice approach. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.