改进的层次分析法与模糊综合评价在评估水库诱发地震震级上限中的应用

为了评估水库诱发地震震级上限,收集了150余例水库诱发地震的震例资料;利用改进的层次分析法优化了各评价指标的权重;应用模糊综合评价方法评估了水库诱发地震震级上限;结合二滩水电站水库诱发地震实例与目前评估水库诱发地震震级最常用的灰色聚类分析法的评价结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:层次分析法与模糊综合评价相结合的震级上限评估方法评价结果更加可靠,可对水库及水工建筑物的建设位置及抗震设防提供参考。     

基于DSC模型的房屋开裂评估与监测分析

城市隧道下穿时,普遍存在着地表房屋变形超限、倾斜开裂等安全风险问题,而且当前针对房屋变形开裂的计算分析、风险评估研究,也严重滞后于实际工程的需要。通过综合分析、比选,以及单、三轴试验验证表明：DSC（disturbed state concept）本构模型能够较好地描述材料开裂后力学行为;采用该模型并结合厦门机场路隧道下穿建筑群的工程实践,对地表建筑群开裂进行定量评估,评估结果与现场房屋裂缝监测、变形监测结果一致性良好。同时,对照扰动变量与实际房屋开裂的对应关系,发现扰动变量可以作为房屋开裂的定量安全指标,进一步即可以建立房屋变形开裂的过程控制标准,从而使隧道下穿过程中每个关键施工部、每个时段,地表房屋变形开裂程度、开裂风险都可以进行量化评估。     

疏勒河上游径流组分及其变化特征定量模拟

气候变化背景下,西北干旱区内陆河流域的水文过程发生显著变化,制约着地区经济社会和生态建设的稳定发展。定量分析和评估高寒山区径流的变化,有助于加强西北地区水资源的规划管理,实现水资源的可持续利用,保障区域水安全。选取位于青藏高原东北边缘、祁连山西段的疏勒河上游作为研究区,利用包含冰雪消融模块的寒区水文模型分布式SPHY模型（Spatial Processes inHydrology model）对流域的径流过程进行定量模拟,根据模拟结果分析了疏勒河上游近45 a径流组成及径流与各组分的变化特征。结果表明：（1）率定期日径流和月径流模拟的Nash效率系数分别为0.62和0.86,验证期达到0.79和0.95,模拟的月径流与实测月径流过程基本一致;（2）径流由四部分组成,冰川径流占总径流的年平均比例为30.5%,融雪径流的占比为12.9%,降雨径流的占比为13.5%,基流的占比为43.1%;（3）由于气温升高、降水增多,冰川径流与降雨径流均呈增加的趋势,平均增加幅度分别为4.66×10⁶ m³·a^-1和2.46×10⁶ m³·a^-1,融雪径流呈减少的趋势,平均减少幅度为1.01×10⁶ m³·a^-1;（4）近45 a年径流增加了69.6%,冰川融水对流域径流增加的贡献率达到48%,非冰川区降水增加的贡献率达到52%。     

济源西部石炭二叠系层序地层学特征

根据野外露头观测,结合勘探阶段的资料,对河南省济源西部石炭二叠系层序地层学特征进行了系统研究,探讨了聚煤作用的控制因素,首次发现河南省境域内石炭纪的河流与三角洲沉积,并指出中条山可能是石炭二叠纪重要的物源区。该区层序地层学研究对河南省石炭二叠纪古地理再造具有重要意义。     

On the identification of ship coupled heave–pitch motions using neural networks

This paper outlines a procedure for the derivation of the differential equations describing the free response of a heaving and pitching ship from its stationary response to random waves. The coupled heave–pitch motion of a ship in random seas is modelled as a multi-dimensional Markov process. The partial differential equation describing the transition probability density function, known as the Fokker-Planck equation, for this process is derived. The Fokker-Planck equation is used to derive the random decrement equations for the coupled heave–pitch motion. The parameters in these equations are then identified using a neural network approach. The method is validated using numerical simulations and experimental results. The experimental data was obtained using an icebreaker ship model heaving and pitching in random waves. It is shown that the method produces good results when the system is lightly damped. An extension for using this method to identify couple heave–pitch motion in realistic seas is suggested.     

Second-Oorder Analytic Solutions of Nonlinear Interactions of Edge Waves on A Plane Sloping Bottom

Based on the full water-wave equation, a second-order analytic solution for nonlinear interaction of short edge waves on a constant plane sloping bottom is presented in this paper. For special case of slope angle b=p/2, this solution can be reduced to the same order solution of deep water gravity surface waves traveling along parallel coastline. Interactions between two edge waves including progressive, standing and partially reflected standing waves were also discussed. The unified analytic expressions with transfer functions for kinematic-dynamic elements of edge waves were also discussed. The random model of the unified wave motion processes for linear and nonlinear irregular edge waves is formulated, and the corresponding theoretical autocorrelation and spectral density functions of the first and second orders are derived. The boundary conditions for the determining determination of the parameters of short edge wave are suggested, that may be seen as one special simple edge wave excitation mechanism and an extension to the sea wave refraction theory. Finally some computation results are demonstrated.     

Small-scale fisheries reform: Expectations,hopes and dreams of “a better life for all”

This article follows the transformation process in the fishing industry with specific reference to the emergence of a limited commercial sector. In the policy domain, this sector was accommodated through a “one size fits all approach” to access rights, requiring it to compete with the large-scale commercial sector for the same resources. The strategies and actions of successful and unsuccessful applicants in four fishing communities in South Africa are examined. The paper identifies the key challenges facing the limited commercial sector as being the lack of skills to complete the application process, start up capital or credit, organisation and financial and business acumen. It highlights the disjuncture between the Marine Living Resources Act's stated aims of sustainability, equity and stability and the realities of implementation at a grassroots level.     

南海北部海域油气勘探保障建设选址适宜性研究

为分析南海北部海域油气勘探保障建设选址的适宜性,在广泛研究备选区特征资料的基础上,基于层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)原理,以自然环境因素、开发环境因素、基础设施与投资情况以及其他因素作为一级评判准则,建立了包括12项二级评判准则的递进层次结构模型,并以永兴岛、赵述岛和晋卿岛作为3个假定备选区,来验证分析评价模型的有效性和可靠性。AHP评判结果显示,3个备选区的整体优劣指数依次为0.587 1, 0.212 1, 0.200 8;AHP模型的一致性比例CR值为0.020 3。通过分析和筛选影响远海油气勘探保障建设的选址因子,构建基于AHP原理的选址评价模型,可用于分析评价南海北部岛礁油气勘探保障建设选址的适宜性。     

正交实验法优化紫蛇尾皂苷提取工艺研究

以紫蛇尾(Ophiopholis mirabilis)皂苷溶液吸光度为指标,采用单因素实验法考察乙醇体积分数、料液比、提取时间、提取次数、提取温度等因素对紫蛇尾皂苷提取效果的影响,通过正交实验确定最佳工艺条件。结果表明,紫蛇尾皂苷的最佳提取工艺为60℃水浴,料液比1:40(W/V),每次3 h,提取4次。按照最佳工艺条件所得蛇尾皂苷平均产率为1.77‰,表明此最佳工艺可用于紫蛇尾皂苷的制备。     

赤道印度洋中部断面东西水交换的季节变化及其区域差异

采用海洋再分析资料和实测资料研究了热带印度洋中部东西水交换特征。结果表明存在两个相互独立的过程,即北印度洋过程(4°~6°N)和赤道过程(2°S-2°N)。北印度洋过程受季风影响显著,11月至翌年3月冬季风期间表现出很强的低盐水向西输送,5-9月夏季风期间则为高盐水向东输送;由于冬季风期间的输送较强,年平均表现为低盐水向西输送。赤道过程分为表层过程和次表层过程。表层赤道过程受局地风场驱动,有明显的半年周期;4-5月和10-11月的东向流将赤道西印度洋的高盐水向东输送,其余月份相反;向东的输送较强,年平均表现为净高盐水向东输送。在次表层赤道过程没有明显的季节变化,海流全年一致向东,将海盆西部的高盐水向东输送。