模块化模糊神经网络的数值预报产品释用预报研究

综合应用预报量自身时间序列的拓展,数值预报产品和模块化模糊神经网络方法,进行了一种新的数值预报产品释用预报研究。将这种新方法与常规的数值预报产品完全预报(PP)方法进行了对比试验。结果表明,这种模块化模糊神经网络数值预报产品释用预报方法比PP预报方法的预报精度显著提高。并且,通过对预报模型“过拟合”现象的研究发现,这种模块化模糊神经网络的数值预报产品释用预报模型具有很好的泛化性能。     

深圳海岸复杂地形气流与湍流特征的数值模拟

利用三维非静力能量闭合（Ｅ－ε）的边界层模式，以深圳海岸复杂地形进行了实际模拟。结果给出了该地区海陆风情形下气流和湍流孤变化特征。在海风发展盛期，气流方向由大面积的水域和内陆的位置决定，不规则海岸线对局地气流影响不大，夜间陆风时，不规则海岸线对局地气流影响较大，湍流能量高值颁在陆地上空的不稳定层内，水面上湍能很小。模拟结果与实测结果上比较吻合。     

东北大部旱情缓解 粤闽局地暴雨成灾──1997年5月

东北大部旱情缓解粤闽局地暴雨成灾—１９９７年５月—徐良炎（国家气候中心，北京１０００８１）５月份，东北大部、华北北部及黄淮等地普降喜雨，旱情缓解；西北东部、华北西部等地降水偏少，旱情持续或发展。南方大部地区雨水比较调匀，无大范围旱涝发生，但华南局地遭...     

铅—试铁灵络合物吸附波及溴化十六烷基三甲基铵增敏效应的研究

在０３０ｍｏｌ／ＬＨＡｃ介质中，Ｐｂ（Ⅱ）与７＿碘＿８＿羟基喹啉＿５＿磺酸（试铁灵，Ｆｅｒｏｎ）的络合物于－０５４Ｖ（ｖｓ．ＳＣＥ）产生一尖锐的极谱波，加入溴化十六烷基三甲基铵（ＣＴＭＡＢ）显著增敏，可使极谱波增高约４倍。峰电流与Ｐｂ（Ⅱ）浓度在９６×１０－９～４８×１０－６ｍｏｌ／Ｌ呈良好的线性关系，检出限为４８×１０－９ｍｏｌ／Ｌ。用多种电化学方法研究了该极谱波的性质及电极反应机理表明，络合物组成比为ｎＰｂ（Ⅱ）∶ｎＦｅｒｏｎ＝１∶１，极谱波为吸附波，峰电流由中心离子Ｐｂ（Ⅱ）还原产生，电子转移数为２。试验了多种离子对峰电流的影响，拟定的方法用于矿样分析，结果与原结果相符。     

The Organization of Production in High Technology Industries: An Empirical Assessment*

Recent attention given to the concept of vertical integration and disintegration of production processes has identified the existence of a continuum, with small, flexibly specialized producers at one end and large, mass production units at the other end. Firms along the continuum constantly strive for the optimum combination of economies of scale and scope. This paper attempts to identify the organizational characteristics of high technology firms in one industrial complex of the U.S. Manufacturing Belt. A principal components analysis is performed on a number of theoretically relevant variables for a sample of high technology establishments in Northeast Ohio. The results indicate that the region contains a variety of organizational forms ranging from isolated workshops to large, vertically integrated assembly plants. These findings conform to expectations derived from recent conceptualizations in the literature. Additional empirical research will further enhance understanding of the processes that shape the organization of production in territorial complexes.     

三角洲平原上网结河的发育与聚煤作用

龙潭组上段（２４＃煤顶板到１２＃煤）是盘县地区含煤最好的层段，对该区西北部本段地层的研究表明其中发育有网结河体系。河道沉积由多层叠置的鞋带状砂体组成，湿地沉积主要由菱铁质泥质岩夹薄层板状细砂岩（决口扇沉积）和煤组成。河流的发育和聚煤作用都显示幕式性，可能主要受海平面变化的控制。网结状河道被认为是海侵期对低位下切河谷充填过程中经侧向冲裂水道并相互连通形成的；稳定、连续的厚煤层发育于河道大范围废弃后的海侵晚期，其次是高水位早期。     

Generating fracture networks using iterated function systems

In order to model flow and transport in fractured rocks it is important to know the geometry of the fracture network. A stochastic approach is commonly used to generate a synthetic fracture network from the statistics measured at a natural fracture network. The approach presented herein is able to incorporate the structures found in a natural fracture network into the synthetic fracture network. These synthetic fracture networks are the images generated by Iterated Function Systems (IFS) as introduced by Barnsley (1988). The conditions these IFS have to fulfil to determine images resembling fracture networks and the effects of their parameters on the images are discussed. It is possible to define the parameters of the IFS in order to generate some properties of a fracture network. The image of an IFS consists of many single points and has to be suitably processed for further use.     

Rapid Variscan exhumation and the role of magma in core complex formation: southern Brittany metamorphic belt, France

ABSTRACT The high-grade migmatitic core to the southern Brittany metamorphic belt has mineralogical and textural features that suggest high-temperature decompression. The chronology of this decompression and subsequent cooling history have been constrained with ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹ Ar ages determined for multigrain concentrates of hornblende and muscovite prepared from amphibolite and late-orogenic granite sheets within the migmatitic core, and from amphibolite of the structurally overlying unit. Three hornblende concentrates yield plateau isotope correlation ages of c. 303–298 Ma. Two muscovite concentrates record well-defined plateau ages of c. 306–305 Ma. These ages are geologically significant and date the last cooling through temperatures required for intracrystalline retention of radiogenic argon. The concordancy of the hornblende and muscovite ages suggest rapid post-metamorphic cooling. Extant geochronology and the new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data suggest a minimum time-integrated average cooling rate between c. 725 °C and c. 125 °C of c. 14 ± 4°C Ma^-1, although below 600 °C the data permit an infinitely fast rate of cooling. Mineral assemblages and reaction textures in diatexite migmatites suggest c. 4 kbar decompression at 800–750 °C. This must have pre-dated the rapid cooling. Emplacement of two-mica granites into the metamorphic belt occurred between 345 and 300 Ma. The youngest plutons were emplaced synkinematically along shallow-dipping normal faults interpreted to be reactivated Eo-Variscan thrusts. A penetrative, west-plunging stretching lineation developed in these granites suggests that extension was orogen-parallel. Extension was probably related to regional uplift and gravitational collapse of thermally weakened crust during constrictional (escape) tectonics in this narrow part of the Variscan orogen. This followed slab breakoff during the terminal stages of convergence between Gondwana and Laurasia; detachment may have been consequent upon a change in kinematics leading to dextral displacement within the orogen. Dextral ductile strike-slip displacement was concentrated in granites emplaced synkinematically along the South Armorican Shear Zone. Rapid cooling is interpreted to have resulted from tectonic unroofing with emplacement of granite along decollement surfaces. The high-grade migmatitic core of the southern Brittany metamorphic belt represents a type of metamorphic core complex formed during orogen-parallel extensional unroofing and regional-scale ductile flow.     

Genesis and distribution of mineral waters as a consequence of recent lithospheric dynamics: the Rhenish Massif,Central Europe

Three major, interdependent processes control the genesis and distribution of mineral and thermal waters in the Rhenish Massif, Central Europe: (a) Magmatic processes in the upper mantle provide most of the CO₂ to produce bicarbonate waters in shallow aquifers. (b) Extension of the brittle upper crust enables the ascent of sodium chloride waters. (c) Uplift and erosion shape the massif's relief, which determines the extent of flow systems and the distribution of thermal springs. The chemistry of mineral waters further depends on the aquifers' mineral composition. A comprehensive set of hydrological, chemical, tectonic and geophysical data on the Rhenish Massif has been compiled. It was used to classify the mineral waters and to map the spatial distribution of water properties. The composition of cuttings from several representative wells producing different water types shows that the hydrothermal alteration of the aquifer rocks consists mainly of kaolinization of chlorite and dissolution of feldspar. Numerical transport simulations favour two modes of groundwater flow: topography-driven flow and the pressure-driven ascent of basement brines along active faults. Thermal convection is less important.     

A physical statistical approach to erosion

Erosion is a complex process consisting of many components such as surface runoff, impact of raindrops, wind forces, soil and rock mechanics, etc. Trying to integrate all these processes into a physical model seems to be hopeless. In order to understand the variety of natural shapes and patterns produced by erosion we present an integrated statistical approach. Our model is based on simple physical constraints for the separation of amalgamated particles (abrasion) and for the movement of loose particles (denudation) and on the laws of statistics. After some simplifications, we obtain a nonlinear system of partial differential equations which is solved using finite volume techniques. The model is suitable for the formation of different types of rill systems and the episodic behaviour of erosion processes, a kind of self-organized criticality. Besides effects of inhomogeneities, e.g. the formation of terraces can be investigated.