Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

Palynological Evidence on Climate Changes in the East China Sea During Mid and Late Holocene

The pollen analysis of DGKS9617 core in the East China Sea (covering about the last 6800 years) shows five obvious pollen assemblages and seven sub-assemblages. Combined with the sediment and the result of diatom analysis, the climate changes are reconstructed during the Middle and Late Holocene. Corresponding to the pollen assemblages, the climate shifts just as follows: Assemblage Ⅰ-Warm and Dry Stage, Assemblage Ⅱ-Cool and Humid Stage, Assemblage Ⅲ-Hot and Dry Stage (the mean annual temperature is 2～3 ℃ higher than that today ), Assemblage Ⅳ-Cool and Humid Stage, Assemblage Ⅴ-Wann and Dry Stage. The third stage is divided into three substages i.e. a slight colder and dry one, a slight wanner and humid one and a slight warmer and dry one. During the fifth stage, the climate becomes similar to that today with three warm substages and two cool substages.     

Are Global Tide Gauge Data Stationary in Variance?

Tide gauges distributed all over the world provide valuable information for monitoring mean sea level changes. The statistical models used in estimating sea level change from the tide gauge data assume implicitly that the random model components are stationary in variance. We show that for a large number of global tide gauge data this is not the case for the seasonal part using a variate-differencing algorithm. This finding is important for assessing the reliability of the present estimates of mean sea level changes because nonstationarity of the data may have marked impact on the sea level rate estimates, especially, for the data from short records.     

A preliminary study of carbon system in the East China Sea

In the central part of the East China Sea, the activity of CO₂ in the surface water and total carbonate, pH and alkalinity in the water column were determined in winter and autumn of 1993. The activity of CO₂ in the continental shelf water was about 50 ppm lower than that of surface air. This decrease corresponds to the absorption of about 40 gC/m²/yr of atmospheric CO₂ in the coastal zone or 1 GtC/yr in the global continental shelf, if this rate is applicable to entire coastal seas. The normalized total carbonate contents were higher in the water near the coast and near the bottom. This increase toward the bottom may be due to the organic matter deposited on the bottom. This conclusion is supported by the distribution of pH. The normalized alkalinity distribution also showed higher values in the near-coast water, but in the surface water, indicating the supply of bicarbonate from river water. The residence time of the East China Sea water, including the Yellow Sea water, has been calculated to be about 0.8 yr from the excess alkalinity and the alkalinity input. Using this residence time and the excess carbonate, we can estimate that the amount of dissolved carbonate transported from the coastal zone to the oceanic basin is about 70 gC/m²/yr or 2 GtC/yr/area-of-global-continental-shelf. This also means that the rivers transport carbon to the oceans at a rate of 30 gC/m²/yr of the coastal sea or 0.8 GtC/yr/ area-of-global shelf, the carbon consisting of dissolved inorganic carbonate and terrestrial organic carbon decomposed on the continental shelf.     

潮汐对瞬态气候响应模拟的影响研究

In this study, the impact of oceanic processes on the sensitivity of transient climate change is investigated using two sets of coupled experiments with and without tidal forcing, which are termed Exp_Tide and Exp_Control,respectively. After introducing tidal forcing, the transient climate response(TCR) decreases from 2.32 K to 1.90 K,and the surface air temperature warming at high latitudes decreases by 29%. Large ocean heat uptake efficiency and heat storage can explain the low TCR in Exp_Tide. Approximately 21% more heat is stored in the ocean in Exp_Tide(1.10×10~(24) J) than in Exp_Control(0.91×10~(24) J). Most of the large ocean warming occurs in the upper 1 000 m between 60°S and 60°N, primarily in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. This ocean warming is closely related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC). The initial transport at mid-and high latitudes and the decline in the AMOC observed in Exp_Tide are both larger than those observed in Exp_Control. The spatial structures of AMOC are also different with and without tidal forcing in present experiments. The AMOC in Exp_Tide has a large northward extension. We also investigated the relationship between AMOC and TCR suggested by previous studies using the present experiments.     

Physical and anthropogenic effects on observed long-term nutrient changes in the Irish Sea

The trend in Irish Sea nutrient concentrations over the last four decades has been considered to reflect changes in anthropogenic loading. Comparison of a long-term database for the Menai Strait, North Wales, with an established historic data set for the Cypris station, Isle of Man, indicates that climate also has a significant influence on observations of nutrient concentrations. Data are presented detailing long-term shifts in nitrate, phosphate and silicate measurements since the 1960s at these two fixed sampling sites in the Irish Sea. Broad systematic changes observed in all three nutrients over the decades show a rise from the 1960s through to the 1980s, followed generally by an overall decline in the 1990s. Decadal-scale salinity changes occur in the opposite sense to nutrient changes. Anthropogenic inputs from freshwater cannot fully account for observed nutrient trends, neither is there evidence for shifts in nutrient concentrations in oceanic waters over the past four decades. Climatically forced movement in the geographical position of the freshwater/seawater mixing zone over a decadal time scale could, however, give rise to the observed shifts in nutrient concentration and salinity. This cannot alter nutrient concentration and salinity per se, but causes the measurements taken at fixed sampling sites to fluctuate inversely over this time scale. It is concluded that there is complex interplay between anthropogenic loading and climate affecting the distribution of nutrients in the Irish Sea.