Physical and anthropogenic effects on observed long-term nutrient changes in the Irish Sea

The trend in Irish Sea nutrient concentrations over the last four decades has been considered to reflect changes in anthropogenic loading. Comparison of a long-term database for the Menai Strait, North Wales, with an established historic data set for the Cypris station, Isle of Man, indicates that climate also has a significant influence on observations of nutrient concentrations. Data are presented detailing long-term shifts in nitrate, phosphate and silicate measurements since the 1960s at these two fixed sampling sites in the Irish Sea. Broad systematic changes observed in all three nutrients over the decades show a rise from the 1960s through to the 1980s, followed generally by an overall decline in the 1990s. Decadal-scale salinity changes occur in the opposite sense to nutrient changes. Anthropogenic inputs from freshwater cannot fully account for observed nutrient trends, neither is there evidence for shifts in nutrient concentrations in oceanic waters over the past four decades. Climatically forced movement in the geographical position of the freshwater/seawater mixing zone over a decadal time scale could, however, give rise to the observed shifts in nutrient concentration and salinity. This cannot alter nutrient concentration and salinity per se, but causes the measurements taken at fixed sampling sites to fluctuate inversely over this time scale. It is concluded that there is complex interplay between anthropogenic loading and climate affecting the distribution of nutrients in the Irish Sea.     

Modelling the effect of wave overtopping on nearshore hydrodynamics and morphodynamics around shore-parallel breakwaters

Wave overtopping nearshore coastal structures, such as shore-parallel breakwaters, can significantly alter the current circulation and sediment transport patterns around the structures, which in turn affects the formation of tombolos and salients in the nearshore area. This paper describes the implementation of a wave overtopping module into an existing depth-averaged coastal morphological mode: COAST2D and model applications to investigate the effect of wave overtopping on the hydrodynamics and morphodynamics around a group of shore-parallel breakwaters. The hydrodynamic aspects of the model were validated against a series of laboratory conditions. The model was then applied to a study site at Sea Palling, Norfolk, UK, where 9 shore-parallel segmented breakwaters including 4 surface-piercing and 5 low-crested breakwaters are present, for the storm conditions in Nov 2006. The model results were compared with laboratory data and field measurements, showing a good agreement on both hydrodynamics and morphological changes. Further analysis of wave overtopping effect on the nearshore hydrodynamics and morphodynamics reveals that wave overtopping has significant impacts on the nearshore circulation, sediment transport and the resulting morphological changes within such a complex breakwater scheme under the storm and macro-tide conditions. The results indicate the importance of including the wave overtopping in modelling nearshore morphodynamics with the presence of coastal structures.     

The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic

During the 1920s and 1930s, there was a dramatic warming of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, reduced sea ice conditions and enhanced Atlantic inflow in northern regions continued through to the 1950s and 1960s, with the timing of the decline to colder temperatures varying with location. Ecosystem changes associated with the warm period included a general northward movement of fish. Boreal species of fish such as cod, haddock and herring expanded farther north while colder-water species such as capelin and polar cod retreated northward. The maximum recorded movement involved cod, which spread approximately 1200 km northward along West Greenland. Migration patterns of “warmer water” species also changed with earlier arrivals and later departures. New spawning sites were observed farther north for several species or stocks while for others the relative contribution from northern spawning sites increased. Some southern species of fish that were unknown in northern areas prior to the warming event became occasional, and in some cases, frequent visitors. Higher recruitment and growth led to increased biomass of important commercial species such as cod and herring in many regions of the northern North Atlantic. Benthos associated with Atlantic waters spread northward off Western Svalbard and eastward into the eastern Barents Sea. Based on increased phytoplankton and zooplankton production in several areas, it is argued that bottom-up processes were the primary cause of these changes. The warming in the 1920s and 1930s is considered to constitute the most significant regime shift experienced in the North Atlantic in the 20th century.     

Climate sensitivity to changes in land surface characteristics

Using a recently developed global vegetation distribution, topography, and shorelines for the Early Eocene in conjunction with the Genesis version 2.0 climate model, we investigate the influences that these new boundary conditions have on global climate. Global mean climate changes little in response to the subtle changes we made; differences in mean annual and seasonal surface temperatures over northern and southern hemispheric land, respectively, are on the order of 0.5°C. In contrast, and perhaps more importantly, continental scale climate exhibits significant responses. Increased peak elevations and topographic detail result in larger amplitude planetary 4 mm/day and decreases by 7–9 mm/day in the proto Himalayan region. Surface temperatures change by up to 18°C as a direct result of elevation modifications. Increased leaf area index (LAI), as a result of altered vegetation distributions, reduces temperatures by up to 6°C. Decreasing the size of the Mississippi embayment decreases inland precipitation by 1–2 mm/day. These climate responses to increased accuracy in boundary conditions indicate that “improved” boundary conditions may play an important role in producing modeled paleoclimates that approach the proxy data more closely.     

Sorted stone circles in Elysium Planitia, Mars: Implications for recent martian climate

We have found sorted stone circles and polygons near the equator of Mars, using new 25 cm/pixel NASA HiRISE (High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment) images. The sorted circles occur in geologically recent catastrophic flood deposits in the equatorial Elysium Planitia region, and are diagnostic of periglacial processes: sorted polygons do not form from volcanic activity, as has been suggested for non-sorted polygons in this region. These landforms indicate that (i) a long-lived, geologically recent, active cryoturbation layer of ground ice was present in the regolith, (ii) there was some degree of freeze-thaw, and thus (iii) there were sustained period(s), likely within the last 10 Ma, in which the martian climate was 40 to 60 K warmer than current models predict.     

Sensitive response of desert vegetation to moisture change based on a near-annual resolution pollen record from Gahai Lake in the Qaidam Basin, northwest China

We present a 50-year pollen record at near-annual resolution from Gahai Lake in the Qaidam Basin on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Chronology of a 22-cm short core was established by ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs analysis. The pollen results at 0.5 cm intervals show large changes in Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae (A/C) ratios from < 0.2 to 0.95 in the last 50 years. High (low) A/C ratios represent increase (decrease) in steppe pollen production, which correspond to high (low) relative humidity observed at nearby Delingha weather station. On the basis of good correspondence with instrumental records and carbonate content from Gahai Lake, we conclude that A/C ratio is sensitive to moisture change and can be a very useful index in reconstructing paleoclimate of arid regions. Comparison with pollen and snow accumulation data from Dunde ice core suggests that effective moisture at low and high elevations shows the opposite relationship when mountain precipitation was extremely high, possibly due to topography-induced uplifting and subsiding air dynamics.     

Climate changes detected through the world's longest sea level series

The sea level series of Stockholm in the Baltic Sea, commencing already in 1774, is analysed in various ways together with contemporary climate data, in order to investigate long-term sea level changes and their relations to climate changes.First, a study of the eustatic rise of sea level, based on annual mean sea levels, is peformed, and compared with other sea level and climate studies. It is concluded that the general climatic rise of sea level has increased significantly (99.9%) from about 0.0 mm/year during the end of the Little Ice Age, to about 1.0 mm/year during the past century, characterized by melting of glaciers. Such sea level changes due to northern hemisphere climate variations since 800 A.D. have (hitherto) probably always kept within −1.5 and +1.5 mm/year, with an average fairly close to zero.Second, an investigation of the sea level variability, also based on annual mean sea levels, is performed together with temperature and wind variabilities. It is found that the interannual sea level variability of the Baltic Sea has decreased significantly (98%) from the end of the 1700s to the beginning of the 1900s; after that it has increased significantly (95%) again. Precisely the same is found to apply to winter climate or, more specifically, to the interannual winter temperature variability and the interannual winter wind variability. The common origin of all these long-term changes turn out to be two consecutive winter wind processes over the North and Baltic Seas, especially the Baltic entrance. From the end of the 1700s to the beginning of the 1900s, there has been a rapidly decreasing number of dominating winter winds from northeast, and after that there has been an increasing number of dominating winter winds from southwest. This may indicate corresponding long-term changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation.Third, using monthly mean sea levels together with corresponding wind data, seasonal variations are investigated. The seasonal sea level variation in the Baltic Sea has increased significantly (99%) since the early 1800s, together with a shift of the maximum from late summer to early winter. It is found that the main origin is a secular change of the winter wind conditions over the Baltic entrance, with increasing southwesterly winds in early winter. This might also be related to a long-term change in the North Atlantic Oscillation.     

Seasonal growth and senescence in continental shelf ecosystems: a test of the SEEP hypothesis

The hypothesis that continental shelf ecosystems export a major fraction of the carbon produced by the phytoplankton during the spring bloom was tested during the Shelf Edge Exchange Processes (SEEP) experiment off the north-east coast of the United States in 1984. The total benthic standing stocks in terms of organic carbon (macrofauna, meiofauna and bacteria) have been estimated in the SEEP area. Their preponderance on the continental shelf was partial evidence that little organic matter escapes to the upper continental slope. Measurements of the metabolism of the biota allowed calculation of turnover times of organic detritus and the total biota. The turnover time of detritus increased as grain size decreased, suggesting that fine-grained deposits contain mostly refractory, non-reactive compounds, especially on the deep slope. Turnover times of the total biota were about the same in the coarse- as in the fine-grained shelf deposits, but a far larger fraction of the turnover was attributed to the bacteria in the fine sediments. On average, about 25 per cent of the primary production appeared to be utilized by the aerobic benthos on the continental shelf in the SEEP area. The role of anaerobes at depth in the sediments remains uncertain. This study, along with a review of other recent work, leads to the conclusion that only a small fraction of continental shelf phytodetritus is exported across a distinct shelf-slope hydrographic frontal system. What is not consumed in the spring is utilized on the shelf during the ensuing stratified season. More open ended ecosystems may export production more readily.     

Ice Sheet-Thermohaline Circulation Interactions in a Climate Model of Intermediate Complexity

A vertically integrated dynamic ice sheet model is coupled to the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land surface climate model recently developed by Wang and Mysak (2000). The background lateral (east-west) ice sheet discharge rate used by Gallee et al. (1992) is reduced and the planetary emissivity is increased (to parameterize the cooling effect of a decrease of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration), in order to build up substantial ice sheets during a glacial period and hence set the stage for ice sheet-thermohaline circulation (THC) interactions. The following iceberg calving scheme is then introduced: when the maximum model height of the North American ice sheet reaches a critical value (2400 m), a prescribed lateral discharged rate is imposed on top of the background discharge rate for a finite time. Per a small prescribed discharge rate, repeated small iceberg calving events occur, which lead to millennial-scale climate cycles with small amplitudes. These are a crude representation of Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. Over one such cycle, the zonally averaged January surface air temperature (SAT) drops about 1.5°C at 72.5°N. However, a large prescribed lateral discharge rate leads to the shut down of the THC. In this case, the January SAT drops about 5°C at 72.5°N, the sea ice extent advances equatorward from 57.5° to 47.5°N and the net ice accumulation rate at the grid of maximum ice sheet height is reduced from 0.24 to 0.15 m/y. Since data strongly suggest that a collapsed THC was not a steady state during the last glacial, we restore the THC by increasing the vertical diffusivity in the North Atlantic Ocean for a finite time. The resulting climate cycles associated with conveyor-on and conveyor-off phases have much larger amplitudes; furthermore, the strong iceberg calving events lead to a larger loss of ice sheet mass and hence the period of the oscillations is longer (several thousand years). This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.