近400年来新疆策勒红柳沙包稳定氧同位素与气候变化

建立红柳沙包沉积纹层年代序列和提取气候环境信息是高分辨率古气候环境变化研究的重要手段。利用策勒达玛沟红柳沙包高度约450 cm沉积纹层红柳落叶的稳定氧同位素数据,结合策勒气象站1960~2011年观测数据,运用移动平均法对稳定氧同位素和气象数据进行平滑处理后,运用相关分析及逐步回归法,定量重建了策勒地区近400年来的4月平均气温和3月降水量序列。研究结果表明:红柳落叶δ^18O平均值为33.96‰,波动范围为27.18‰~44.07‰,波动幅度为16.89‰,δ^18O变化受多个气候要素的综合影响。δ^18O与4月平均气温呈显著负相关,与2月和12月平均气温呈显著正相关;δ^18O与10月、4月、5月、9月、7月以及全年的空气相对湿度呈显著正相关;δ^18O与3月、9月和8月的降水量呈显著正相关,与2月降水量呈显著负相关;δ^18O与2月日照时数呈显著正相关,与9月和10月的日照时数呈显著负相关。策勒地区近400年来气候变化可划分4个阶段:1635~1725年为暖干期,1726~1792年为冷湿期,1793~1897年为暖干期,1898~2009年为冷湿期。     

新生代增温情景下自然火历史的研究

自然火是地球系统的重要组成部分,与气候、植被关系紧密。全球增温情景下,自然火的演化规律和控制因素已经成为学术界的研究热点,通过整理分析自然火实际监测记录、模型模拟结果以及古记录反映的自然火历史,发现还存在一些亟待解决的问题:全球不同增温情景下自然火增多还是减少?其控制因素如何改变?本文选取距今最近的地质历史时期新生代中的典型增温期"中中新世气候适宜期"和"全新世大暖期",对其自然火研究进行分析总结,归纳得出温度是增温情景下自然火的重要控制因素,但是不同地区自然火控制因素有所不同,雨热条件的季节分配、植被类型的演替、雷电和火山活动等因素也对自然火有重要影响。季风区气候变幅大、植被类型丰富,其自然火演化及控制因素具有复杂性,是自然火研究的重要区域,建议在今后研究中,在东亚季风区选择涵盖未来百年可能增温幅度的理想沉积记录,对其记录的自然火历史、增温幅度、植被演替进行系统研究,进而探讨未来增温情景下自然火的演化规律和控制因素。     

勘查地球化学数据挖掘与弱异常识别

我国积累的大量高质量、多元素、多尺度的地球化学数据,为矿产勘查与环境评价提供了有效的数据支撑。如何对这些数据进行二次开发和再利用,提取有价值的地球化学异常信息并带动找矿突破,是缓解当前矿产资源短缺的重要途径之一。在覆盖区和深部的找矿实践中,由于矿体埋深和覆盖层的影响,往往在表生介质中形成弱小的地球化学异常,识别和评价弱小地球化学异常是当前勘查地球化学数据处理的重要方向之一。本文围绕地球化学异常信息的提取和评价,主要从以下几个方面讨论了相关的国内外研究进展和发展趋势:勘查地球化学数据处理与异常识别方法和模型,勘查地球化学数据闭合效应的影响及其解决方案,基于大数据和机器学习的勘查地球化学数据处理以及弱小地球化学异常的识别和评价。研究发现,在地质环境的约束下,基于大数据思维和机器学习相结合的方法,注重地球化学空间分布模式与已发现矿床的相关关系,同时使用所有地球化学变量能有效刻画具有非线性特征的地球化学空间分布模式,可识别出传统方法无法识别的异常,为开展地球化学空间模式识别与异常提取提供了新的途径。     

Temporal and spatial evolution of surface sediments characteristics in the Dagu River estuary and their dynamic response mechanism

Based on the 39 surface sediment samples collected in the flood season and the dry season in 2012 respectively and the measured hydrological data in October 2012, the sediment grain size characteristics has been analyzed and the response mechanism of surface sediments to estuarine hydrodynamics was revealed by calculating the range of waves and tidal currents. The results show that: (1) The grain size of the surface sediment samples decreased gradually from land to sea in the flood season. The fine sediment was redistributed under marine hydrodynamics in the dry season and the sediments showed coarser tendency ingeneral; (2) tidal current stirring sediment was very obvious in Dagu River estuary area, and wave stirring sediments mainly occurred in the tidal flat area and estuary sand bar area; (3) in the flood season, surface sediment sat the estuary were transported towards south and southeast. In the dry season, surface sediments were transported towards southwest at the north area of Jiaozhou Bay Bridge, and sediments were transported towards northeast area at the south of Jiaozhou Bay Bridge.     

我国西北地区21世纪季节气候变化情景分析

使用各国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)数据分发中心提供的7个全球海气耦合气候系统模式(CCC、CCSR、CSIRO、DKRZ、GFDL、HADL、NCAR)的模拟结果,对我国西北地区未来21世纪考虑温室气体增加(GG)和温室气体与硫化物气溶胶共同影响(GS)时,冬夏季的气候变化情景进行了分析.模式集成结果分析表明,我国西北地区的变暖趋势与全球、东亚和中国一致,但变暖幅度明显高于全球、东亚和中国.对未来100年各个季节线性倾向的分析表明,西北地区GG和GS时都是冬季变暖最大,可高达5～8℃/100a,且整个西北地区中新疆地区为最大变暖区.21世纪由于人类活动,西北地区最低温度和最高温度都将明显升高,其线性趋势可达4～6℃/100 a.由于全球气候模式对区域尺度的模拟存在较大的不确定性,未来需要作更多的深入研究.     

The GEOMON network of Czech catchments provides long-term insights into altered forest biogeochemistry: From acid atmospheric deposition to climate change

In 1994, a network of small catchments (GEOMON) was established in the Czech Republic to determine input–output element fluxes in semi-natural forest ecosystems recovering from anthropogenic acidification. The network consists from 16 catchments and the primary observations of elements fluxes were complemented by monitoring of biomass stock, element pools in soil and vegetation, and the main water balance components. Over last three decades, reductions of SO₂, NO_x and NH₃ emissions were followed by sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition reductions of 75% and 30%, respectively. Steeper declines of strong acid anion concentrations compared to cations (Ca, Mg, Na, K, NH₄) in precipitation resulted in precipitation pH increase from 4.5 to 5.2 in bulk precipitation and from 4.0 to 5.1 in spruce throughfall. Stream chemistry responded to changes in deposition: S leaching declined. However at majority of catchments soils acted as a net source of S to runoff, delaying recovery. Stream pH increased at acidic streams (pH < 6) and aluminium concentration decreased. Stream nitrate (NO₃) concentration declined by 60%, considerably more than N deposition. Stream NO₃ concentration was tightly positively related to stream total dissolved nitrogen to total phosphorus (P) ratio, suggesting the role of P availability on N retention. Trends in dissolved organic carbon fluxes responded to both acidification recovery and to runoff temporal variation. An exceptional drought occurred between 2014 and 2019. Over this recent period, streamflow decreased by ≈ 40% on average compared to 1990s, due to the increases of soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration by ≈ 30% and declines in precipitation by ≈ 15% on average across the elevational gradient. Sharp decreases of stream runoff at catchments <650 m a.s.l. corresponded to areas of recent forest decline caused by bark beetle infestation on drought stressed spruce forests. Understanding of the interactions among legacies of acidification and eutrophication, drought effects on the water cycle and forest disturbance dynamics is requisite for effective management of forested ecosystems under anthropogenic influence.     

The role of fog,orography, and seasonality on precipitation in a semiarid,tropical island

Isotopes of water (²H/¹H and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O) are commonly used to trace hydrological processes such as moisture recycling, evaporation loss, and moisture source region and often vary temporally in a given region. This study provides a first‐ever characterization of temporally variable precipitation mechanisms of San Cristóbal Island, Galápagos. We collected fog, rain, and throughfall samples over three field seasons to understand the mechanisms driving seasonal‐ and event‐based variability in the isotopic composition of precipitation in Galápagos. We establish that fog is a common phenomenon in San Cristóbal, especially during the dry season, and we found that fog, compared with cocollected rainfall, is consistently enriched. We further suggest that the relative contribution of fog formed via different mechanisms (orographic, advective, radiation) varied seasonally. We found that the source region is the most dominant control of the isotopic composition of rainfall in the Galápagos at both the seasonal and event scales, but subcloud evaporative processes (the nontraditional manifestation of the amount effect) became a dominant control on the isotopic composition of rainfall during the dry season. Overall, our findings suggest that understanding seasonally variable water‐generating mechanisms is required for effective water resource management in San Cristóbal Island and other semiarid island ecosystems under current and future regimes of climate change.     

Climate driven coevolution of weathering profiles and hillslope topography generates dramatic differences in critical zone architecture

Considerable debate revolves around the relative importance of rock type, tectonics, and climate in creating the architecture of the critical zone. We demonstrate the importance of climate and in particular the rate of water recharge to the subsurface, using numerical models that incorporate hydrologic flowpaths, chemical weathering, and geomorphic rules for soil production and transport. We track alterations in both solid phase (plagioclase to clay) and water chemistry along hydrologic flowpaths that include lateral flow beneath the water table. To isolate the role of recharge, we simulate dry and wet cases and prescribe identical landscape evolution rules. The weathering patterns that develop differ dramatically beneath the resulting parabolic interfluves. In the dry case, incomplete weathering is shallow and surface parallel, whereas in the wet case, intense weathering occurs to depths approximating the base of the bounding channels, well below the water table. Exploration of intermediate cases reveals that the weathering state of the subsurface is strongly governed by the ratio of the rate of advance of the weathering front itself controlled by the water input rate, and the rate of erosion of the landscape. The system transitions between these end‐member behaviours rather abruptly at a weathering front speed ‐ erosion rate ratio of approximately 1. Although there are undoubtedly direct roles for tectonics and rock type in critical zone architecture, and yet more likely feedbacks between these and climate, we show here that differences in hillslope‐scale weathering patterns can be strongly controlled by climate.     

Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.     

Understanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological model

This paper provides the results of hydrological modelling in a mesoscale glaciated alpine catchment of the Himalayan region. In the context of global climate change, the hydrological regime of an alpine mountain is likely to be affected, which might produce serious implications for downstream water availability. The main objective of this study was to understand the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated catchment, the Dudh Kosi River basin, in Nepal, using the J2000 hydrological model and thereby understand how the rise in air temperature will affect the hydrological processes. The model is able to reproduce the overall hydrological dynamics quite well with an efficiency result of Nash–Sutcliffe (0.85), logarithm Nash–Sutcliffe (0.93) and coefficient of determination (0.85) for the study period. The average contribution from glacier areas to total streamflow is estimated to be 17%, and snowmelt (other than from glacier areas) accounts for another 17%. This indicates the significance of the snow and glacier runoff in the Himalayan region. The hypothetical rise in temperature scenarios at a rate of +2 and +4 °C indicated that the snowmelt process might be largely affected. An increase in snowmelt volume is noted during the premonsoon period, whereas the contribution during the monsoon season is significantly decreased. This occurs mainly because the rise in temperature will shift the snowline up to areas of higher altitude and thereby reduce the snow storage capacity of the basin. This indicates that the region is particularly vulnerable to global climate change and the associated risk of decreasing water availability to downstream areas. Under the assumed warming scenarios, it is likely that in the future, the river might shift from a ‘melt‐dominated river’ to a ‘rain‐dominated river’. The J2000 model should be considered a promising tool to better understand the hydrological dynamics in alpine mountain catchments of the Himalayan region. This understanding will be quite useful for further analysis of ‘what‐if scenarios’ in the context of global climate and land‐use changes and ultimately for sustainable Integrated Water Resources Management in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.