基于加权时空关联规则的公交扒窃犯罪模式识别

近年来,公交扒窃案呈上升趋势,为了预防和打击此类犯罪,需要有效识别其犯罪模式。传统的犯罪分析方法,往往将时间和空间分割开来研究,本文则引入加权时空关联规则进行挖掘分析,试图找出公交扒窃的案发时空规律。首先,对公交扒窃数据进行时间粒度和空间粒度的划分,将公交主要运营时间以2 h为单位划分成等间隔的公交时段并对其进行编码,将公交线路按公交站点划分成公交路段;其次,对数据进行空间分析和时间归并,提取出每个案件发生的公交路段和案发时段,并将案发时段归并到公交时段中;再次,由于每个公交路段的案发率不同,其对结果的贡献率也不同,因此,给每个路段赋予一个权重;最后,用Apriori算法进行加权关联规则挖掘,得到公交扒窃的时空犯罪模式。研究表明,这种挖掘方法具有以下特点:(1)按公交站点进行公交路段的划分具有创新性;(2)通过对案发路段的加权,能将空间位置重要程度的差异区分开来,更符合实际情况;(3)挖掘过程中同时考虑了时间与空间属性。     

Spatiotemporal evolution of urban theft crimes and mechanism in the context of regular COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control: A case study of Haining,Zhejiang北大核心CSCD

新冠疫情的爆发会对区域内犯罪数量产生显著影响。然而,常态化疫情防控是否显著改变了犯罪空间分布格局,仍然有待进一步的实证检验。论文选择始终采取常态化疫情防控措施的浙江海宁市中心城区,采用标准差椭圆、核密度估计方法,对2018年2月—2021年7月城市盗窃犯罪的时空格局演变特征及其机理进行研究。结果表明:(1)新冠疫情爆发后,研究区内盗窃犯罪月均数量较疫情前降幅达53%,并持续在100~200起之间波动,而其日内分布模式却没有明显变化;(2)2020年2月—2021年7月,研究区内盗窃犯罪热点较疫情前有明显减弱、减少,且其犯罪空间分布格局较为稳定;(3)针对疫情前的12个典型犯罪热点区域,其月均犯罪数量在疫情后的降幅在52%~78%之间,其分季度的时间演变模式存在明显差异;(4)根据日常活动理论和犯罪三角理论,常态化疫情防控中有7类具体措施可对各区域的犯罪产生较大影响。研究结果对于理解重大突发公共卫生事件下的犯罪空间演变规律和制定科学的犯罪防控策略均具有重要参考价值。     

Crime on the edges: patterns of crime and land use change

ABSTRACT

Criminologists have long-known that different locations have varying levels of risk for criminal victimization. Based on the geometry of crime and its corresponding crime generators and crime attractors, edges (boundaries between relatively homogeneous neighborhoods) are locations with an elevated risk of criminal victimization. In this article, we investigate the importance of edges. We find that criminal victimization rates are 2–3 times on an edge compared to elsewhere. However, this effect decreases very quickly moving away from these locations, with the effect gone at 40 meters. This general effect is identified in a number of contexts and locations.     

COUNCIL MEETING,ATLANTA April 13-14, 1973

In this second report from the Long Range Planning Committee, the Chairman of the Communications Task Force discusses the purpose, structure, and functioning of Specialty Groups, which are to be established in accordance with a Committee recommendation approved by the AAG Council.     

RECENT RESEARCH IN JAPANESE GEOMORPHOLOGY

This is the second in a series of reports on Japanese geographic research prepared in cooperation with the Association of Japanese Geographers (AJG). Like the report on historical geography, which appeared in the August issue, this report on geomorphology has been modified for the English-speaking readership of THE PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER. As an indication of the relative importance of geomorphology in Japanese geography, at the April 1979 annual meeting of the AJG in Tokyo 30 percent of the 138 papers presented were devoted to geomorphology.—H. Jesse Walker, Member, U.S. National Committee, IGU     

Segregation and Urban Unrest in Sweden

In 2009, Sweden experienced a wave of urban unrest concentrated in areas with large foreign-born populations. This episode was seen by many as reflecting a trend towards increased ethnically based residential segregation, in line with scholarly literatures that correlate inequality and rising segregation with increases in unrest or rebellion. In this paper, we analyze the empirical connection between ethnic residential segregation and episodes of urban unrest in Sweden. Unrest is measured by the number of car burnings reported to police between 2002 and 2009. We find a positive and statistically significant link between residential segregation and car burnings at the scale of municipalities and metropolitan districts. Unrest/rebellion is also correlated with high proportion of young adults and social welfare assistance.     

Contingent Urban Geographies of Violent Crime: Racial Segregation and the Impact of Public Housing in Atlanta

Neighborhood variations in crime incidence rates are most commonly interpreted through the lens of social disorganization theory, or a "communities and crime" perspective. This approach typically articulates explanation for crime by focusing on the characteristics of communities—a unitary scale most commonly equated with neighborhoods. We argue that this perspective fails to recognize the importance of broader urban geographic contexts, and offer an extension that sees geographically contingent processes functioning at multiple scales simultaneously. We develop this perspective applied to the "spread effects" of public housing on violent crime in surrounding neighborhoods: these spread effects are conditioned by the nature of the urban contexts through which they operate. Specifically, deeply divided and racialized patterns of residential segregation at least partially define the contexts that condition public housing's effect on crime. We examine our perspective using early 1990s block group data for the City of Atlanta and find substantial evidence in support of our perspective. In particular, we find that Techwood Homes, the nation's first federally constructed public housing project, exerted different geographic spread effects in predominantly White than in predominantly Black portions of the city. By failing to recognize the complexity and contingency of public housing's geographic effect on crime in surrounding neighborhoods, previous approaches substantially overestimate crime in White areas, and underestimate crime in Black areas.     

Trapped in Jobless Household Areas: the spatio-temporal dynamics of children in jobless households in metropolitan Australia

Child disadvantage is an important issue in Australia today and is one of the key policy target areas of the Federal government. Child disadvantage not only affects child wellbeing in the present time but can also inhibit their future achievements. As well as individual- and family-level effects, there is growing evidence that child wellbeing and achievement is highly affected by the environment in which children grow up, and what resources and role models are available to them in their surrounding areas. In this paper, we examine the spatial clustering of children in jobless households through the computation of the Global and Local Moran's statistics, for the Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan regions, and observe how these clusters have changed between the 2001 and 2006 census years. We find that there are significant spatial clusters of children in jobless households in both periods, suggesting that ‘place’ is a driver of this particular phenomenon. Further, we observe an expansion of ‘hot spots’, in both Sydney and Melbourne, suggesting that areas with high proportions of children in jobless households have both persisted and increased despite the sizeable economic growth in Australia over the same period.     

LOCATIONAL PROBLEMS AND PREFERENCES IN PRESCHOOL CHILD CARE*

With the increased use of formal child care, the number of child care alternatives has grown. The locational problems and preferences of University of Connecticut employees who use formal child care for children under age 6 are examined because an on-site program is available as one option. Difficulty finding care at a convenient location is related to residential location. Preference for worksite care decreases with increasing commuting distance. Variations in reported locational preferences by commuting zone are consistent with the notion of locating services within the activity spaces of the users. As commuting distance increases, worksite day care represents a greater displacement from the activity spaces of the child and possibly of other family members.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: The Rice Economy of Asia . Randolph Barker and Robert W. Herdt with Beth Rose. Using Microcomputers: A Guidebook for Writers, Teachers, and Researchers in the Social Sciences . Blaine A. Erie—the Lake that Survived . Noel M. Burns. Geology and Society . Donald R. Coates. Caves and Karst of Kentucky . Percy H. Dougherty, ed. Altered Harvest: Agriculture, Genetics, and the Fate of the World's Food Supply . Jack Doyle. The Middle East and North Africa, A Political Geography . Alasdair Drysdale and Gerald H. Blake. Clamor at the Gates. The New American Immigration . Nathan Glazer, ed. Development and the Landowner: An analysis of the British experience . Robin Goodchild and Richard Munton. Discovering Landscape in England and Wales . Andrew Goudie and Rita Gardner. The Modern Plantation in the Third World . Edgar Graham and Ingrid Floering. Social Relations and Spatial Structures . Derek Gregory and John Urry, eds. The World Food Problem 1950–1980 . David Grigg. Costa Rica: A Geographical Interpretation in Historical Perspective . Carolyn Hall. The Urbanization of Capital: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization . David Harvey Consciousness and the Urban Experience: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization . David Harvey. Reviving Main Street . Deryck Holdsworth, ed. Rural Roads and Poverty Alleviation . John Howe and Peter Richards, eds. Uneven Development in Southern Europe: Studies of Accumulation, Class, Migration and the State . Ray Hudson and Jim Lewis, eds. Karst Geomorphology . J. N. Jennings. The Geomorphology of North-west England . R. H. Johnson, ed. Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of the Interaction of Climate and Society . Robert Kates, Jesse Ausubel, Mimi Berberian, eds. Public Service Provision and Urban Development . Andrew Kirby, Paul Knox, and Steven Pinch, ed. State and Market: The Politics of the Public and the Private . Jan-Erik Lane, ed. Living Cities . Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on Urban Preservation Policies. World Climatic Systems . John G. Lockwood. Urban Ethnicity in the United States. New Immigrants and Old Minorities . Lionel Maldonaldo and Joan Moore, eds. Culture and Conservation: The Human Dimension in Environmental Planning . Jeffrey A. McNeely and David Pitt, eds. The Andean Past. Land, Societies, and Conflicts . Magnus Mörner. Gaia: An Atlas of Planet Management . Norman Myers, ed. Progress in Industrial Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Progress in Political Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Rivers and Landscape . Geoff Petts and Ian Foster. Urbanization and Planning in the 3rd World: Spatial Perceptions and Public Participation . Robert B. Potter. One Island, Two Nations? A Political Geographical Analysis of the National Conflict in Ireland . D. G. Pringle. Circulation in Third World Countries . R. Mansell Prothero and Murray Chapman. The Ozarks Outdoors: A Guide for Fishermen, Hunters, and Tourists . Milton D. Rafferty. Suburban Burglary: A Time and a Place for Everything . George Rengert and John Wasilchick. Geomorphology and Soils . K.S. Richards, R.R. Arnett, and S. Ellis, eds. The Homes and Homeless of Post-War Britain . Frederick Shaw. Indochinese Refugees in America . Paul J. Strand and Woodrow Jones, Jr. Wild Horses and Sacred Cows . Richard Symanski. Forever Wild: Environmental Aesthetics and the Adirondack Forest Preserve . Philip G. Terrie. The Regional Economic Impact of Technological Change . A.T. Thwaites and R.P. Oakey, eds. The Good Life . Yi-Fu Tuan.