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11.
1 INTRODUCTIONGlobal change research involves much geo-objectsand geo-process, such as climate and environmentalchange, substance and energy cycling, land-use/land-cover change (LUCC), interactivity between human and nature, etc.. So it need cooperation frommany research communities including international research programs groups such as IGBP (InternationalGeosphere-Biosphere Programme IPCC (Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change), IHDP (InternationalHuman Dimension Program o… 相似文献
12.
The occurrence of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia and its dependence on past and presently ongoing climatic variations was investigated with one- (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) numerical models by solving the transient heat conduction equation with latent heat effects included. The study area is characterized by discontinuous permafrost occurrences such as palsa mires and local mountain permafrost. The ground temperature changes during the Holocene were constructed using climatic proxy data. This variation was used as a forcing function at the ground surface in the calculations. Several versions of the present ground temperature were applied, resulting in different subsurface freezing–thawing conditions in the past depending on the assumed porosity and geothermal conditions.Our results suggest that in high altitude areas with a cold climate (present mean annual ground temperature between 0°C and −3°C), there may have been considerable variations in permafrost thickness (ranging from 0 to 150 m), as well as periods of no permafrost at all. The higher is the porosity of bedrock filled with ice, the stronger is the retarding effect of permafrost against climatic variations.Two-dimensional models including topographic effects with altitude-dependent ground temperatures and slope orientation and inclination dependent solar radiation were applied to a case of mountain permafrost in Ylläs, western Finnish Lapland, where bedrock permafrost is known to occur in boreholes to a depth of about 60 m. Modelling suggests complicated changes in permafrost thickness with time as well as contrasting situations on southern and northern slopes of the mountain.Extrapolating the climatic warming of the last 200 years to the end of the next century when the anticipated increase in the annual average air temperature is expected to be about 2 K indicates that the permafrost occurrences in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia would be thawing rapidly in low-porosity formations. However, already a porosity of 5% filled with ice would retard the thawing considerably. 相似文献
13.
Kenai, located on the west coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, subsided during the great earthquake of AD 1964. Regional land subsidence is recorded within the estuarine stratigraphy as peat overlain by tidal silt and clay. Reconstructions using quantitative diatom transfer functions estimate co‐seismic subsidence (relative sea‐level rise) between 0.28±0.28 m and 0.70±0.28 m followed by rapid post‐seismic recovery. Stratigraphy records an earlier co‐seismic event as a second peat‐silt couplet, dated to ~1500–1400 cal. yr BP with 1.14±0.28 m subsidence. Two decimetre‐scale relative sea‐level rises are more likely the result of glacio‐isostatic responses to late Holocene and Little Ice Age glacier expansions rather than to co‐seismic subsidence during great earthquakes. Comparison with other sites around Cook Inlet, at Girdwood and Ocean View, helps in constructing regional patterns of land‐level change associated with three great earthquakes, AD 1964, ~950–850 cal. yr BP and ~1500–1400 cal. yr BP. Each earthquake has a different spatial pattern of co‐seismic subsidence which indicates that assessment of seismic hazard in southern Alaska requires an understanding of multiple great earthquakes, not only the most recent. All three earthquakes show a pre‐seismic phase of gradual land subsidence that marked the end of relative land uplift caused by inter‐seismic strain accumulation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
A growing body of evidence implies that the concept of 'treeless tundra' in eastern and northern Europe fails to explain the rapidity of Lateglacial and postglacial tree population dynamics of the region, yet the knowledge of the geographic locations and shifting of tree populations is fragmentary. Pollen, stomata and plant macrofossil stratigraphies from Lake Kurjanovas in the poorly studied eastern Baltic region provide improved knowledge of ranges of north‐eastern European trees during the Lateglacial and subsequent plant population responses to the abrupt climatic changes of the Lateglacial/Holocene transition. The results prove the Lateglacial presence of tree populations (Betula, Pinus and Picea) in the eastern Baltic region. Particularly relevant is the stomatal and plant macrofossil evidence showing the local presence of reproductive Picea populations during the Younger Dryas stadial at 12 900–11 700 cal. a BP, occurring along with Dryas octopetala and arctic herbs, indicating semi‐open vegetation. The spread of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 14 400 cal. a BP, the rise of Picea at ca. 12 800 cal. a BP and the re‐establishment of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 11 700 cal. a BP within a span of centuries further suggest strikingly rapid, climate‐driven ecosystem changes rather than gradual plant succession on a newly deglaciated land. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
A new analysis of all 346 published 14C dated Holocene alluvial units in Britain offers a unique insight into the regional impacts of global change and shows how surprisingly sensitive British rivers have been to relatively modest but repeated changes in climate. Fourteen major but probably brief periods of flooding are identified bracketed within the periods 400–1070, 1940–3940, 7520–8100 and at ca. 10 420 cal. yr BP. There is a strong correspondence between climatic deteriorations inferred from mire wet shifts and major periods of flooding, especially at ca. 8000 cal. yr BP and since ca. 4000 cal. yr BP. The unusually long and complete British record also demonstrates that alterations in land cover have resulted in a step change in river basin sensitivity to variations in climate. This has very important implications for assessing and mitigating the impact of increasing severe flooding. In small and medium‐sized river basins land use is likely to play a key role in either moderating or amplifying the climatic signal. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
本文对徐州地震台JB—72水平摆倾斜仪1988年11月至1989年5月间所记录到的24次同震阶变进行了深入分析,认为:a.造成同震阶变的原因是多方面的,而反应了地球应变场准静态调整的同震阶变才是有价值的价变异常;b.多观测手段的地震台站,同震阶变应该在不止一台仪器上得到响应。 相似文献
17.
High‐resolution pollen, plant macrofossil and sedimentary analyses from early Holocene lacustrine sediments on the Faroe Islands have detected a significant vegetation perturbation suggesting a rapid change in climate between ca. 10 380 cal. yr BP and the Saksunarvatn ash (10 240±60 cal. yr BP). This episode may be synchronous with the decline in δ18O values in the Greenland ice‐cores. It also correlates with a short, cold event detected in marine cores from the North Atlantic that has been ascribed to a weakening of thermohaline circulation associated with the sudden drainage of Lake Agassiz into the northwest Atlantic, or, alternatively, a period with distinctly decreased solar forcing. The vegetation sequence begins at ca. 10 500 cal. yr BP with a succession from tundra to shrub‐tundra and increasing lake productivity. Rapid population increases of aquatic plants suggest high summer temperatures between 10 450 and 10 380 cal. yr BP. High pollen percentages, concentrations and influx of Betula, Juniperus and Salix together with macrofossil leaves indicate shrub growth around the site during the initial phases of vegetation colonisation. Unstable conditions followed ca. 10 380 cal. yr BP that changed both the upland vegetation and the aquatic plant communities. A decrease in percentage values of shrub pollen is recorded, with replacement of both aquatics and herbaceous plants by pioneer plant communities. An increase in total pollen accumulation rates not seen in the concentration data suggests increased sediment delivery. The catchment changes are consistent with less seasonal, moister conditions. Subsequent climatic amelioration reinitiated a warmth‐driven succession and catchment stabilisation, but retained high precipitation levels influencing the composition of the post‐event communities. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Qing-Yao Liu Yu-Lan Yang National Astronomical Observatories/Yunnan Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2006,6(3):331-337
The variation in the orbital period of the W UMa type contact binary V502 Oph is analyzed. The orbital period exhibits a wavelike variation with a periodicity of 23.0 years and an amplitude of △P = 1.24×10~(-6) days superimposed on secular decrease of dP/dt = 1.68×10-7 day per year. The long-term decrease may be accompanied by the contraction of the secondary at a rate of 83 m per year and a mass transfer rate from the primary to the secondary of 4.28×10~8 M per year. The short-term oscillation may be explained by the presence of a third component. Orbital elements of the third body and its possible mass are presented. 相似文献
19.
C. S. M. Turney K. Van Den Burg S. Wastegrd S. M. Davies N. J. Whitehouse J. R. Pilcher C. Callaghan 《第四纪科学杂志》2006,21(4):335-345
High‐precision correlation of palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records is crucial for testing hypotheses of synchronous change. Although radiocarbon is the traditional method for dating late Quaternary sedimentary sequences, particularly during the last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT; 15–9 ka), there are inherent problems with the method, particularly during periods of climate change which are often accompanied by major perturbations in atmospheric radiocarbon content. An alternative method is the use of tephras that act as time‐parallel marker horizons. Within Europe, numerous volcanic centres are known to have erupted during the LGIT, providing considerable potential for high‐precision correlation independent of past radiocarbon fluctuations. Here we report the first identification of the Vedde Ash and Askja Tephra in Ireland, significantly extending the known provenance of these events. We have also identified two new horizons (the Roddans Port Tephras A and B) and tentatively recognise an additional horizon from Vallensgård Mose (Denmark) that provide crucial additional chronological control for the LGIT. Two phases of the Laacher See Tephra (LST) are reported, the lower Laacher See Tephra (LLST) and probably the C2 phase of the Middle Laacher See Tephra (MLST‐C2) indicating a more northeasterly distribution of this fan than reported previously. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
J. van der Plicht B. van Geel S. J. P. Bohncke J. A. A. Bos M. Blaauw A. O. M. Speranza R. Muscheler S. Bjrck 《第四纪科学杂志》2004,19(3):263-269
Accurate chronologies are essential for linking palaeoclimate archives. Carbon‐14 wiggle‐match dating was used to produce an accurate chronology for part of an early Holocene peat sequence from the Borchert (The Netherlands). Following the Younger Dryas–Preboreal transition, two climatic shifts could be inferred. Around 11 400 cal. yr BP the expansion of birch (Betula) forest was interrupted by a dry continental phase with dominantly open grassland vegetation, coeval with the PBO (Preboreal Oscillation), as observed in the GRIP ice core. At 11 250 cal. yr BP a sudden shift to a humid climate occurred. This second change appears to be contemporaneous with: (i) a sharp increase of atmospheric 14C; (ii) a temporary decline of atmospheric CO2; and (iii) an increase in the GRIP 10Be flux. The close correspondence with excursions of cosmogenic nuclides points to a decline in solar activity, which may have forced the changes in climate and vegetation at around 11 250 cal. yr BP. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献