Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

Simulating cross-sectional geometry of the main channel in response to changes in water and sediment in Lower Yellow River

Journal of Geographical Sciences - To understand the non-equilibrium morphological adjustment of a river in response to environmental changes, it is essential to (i) accurately identify how past...     

气候变化下基于物种与植物耦联机制的小白额雁(Anser erythropus)潜在生境及适宜性研究--以长江流域中下游为例

气候变化和人类活动通过改变物种生境而影响物种多样性。小白额雁是长江流域中下游的一种具有较高生态价值的食草型濒危候鸟,受气候变化和人类活动威胁。本文以小白额雁为代表性物种,定量分析了气候变化对长江流域中下游候鸟潜在生境及适宜性空间分布格局的影响。采用Maxent模型模拟了当前情景和全球环流模型(GCMs)气候场景下小白额雁潜在生境及其适宜性分布。研究结果表明,小白额雁分布特征与其栖息地周边植物分布呈显著相关关系;运用Maxent模型模拟小白额雁六种主要食源植物的分布特征,并将其结果作为环境变量,将显著改善小白额雁潜在生境及其适宜性模型的模拟性能;在两种典型浓度情景(RCP 2.6和RCP8.5)下,2070年小白额雁潜在生境适宜性面积将下降。为应对气候变化对小白额雁的影响,应采取更加合理的管理措施和保护政策,包括调整保护区的大小、形状和用途。     

柴达木低品位固体钾矿溶解转化率与品位关系

我国是缺钾大国,探明的可溶性钾盐十分有限,柴达木盆地是我国盐湖钾盐的聚集地,含水层骨架中含有数亿吨低品位固体钾矿,开发出这些低品位固体钾盐对增加国内钾肥供给,保障粮食安全具有重大意义。青海盐湖工业股份有限公司历经十年开发出低品位固体钾盐的浸泡式溶解转化方法,试验表明,固体钾盐的溶解转化率随固体钾品位的增加而增加,累计溶解转化率为56%～98%。该技术在柴达木多个盐湖得到推广应用,察尔汗盐湖保有固体钾盐达2.96×10~8 t,平均品位KCl为1.24%,根据试验数据回归分析溶解转化率77%,可溶解转化出钾盐(KCl)约2.28×10~8 t,柴达木盆地盐湖保有3.43×10~8 t固体钾盐,平均品位KCl为1.25%,溶解转化率78%,可溶解转化出钾盐(KCl)2.68×10~8 t,大幅度增加了钾盐储备量。     

新时代的国土空间规划体系重建与制度环境改革

在全面推进生态文明建设背景下,急需建立适合中国国情的国土空间开发保护制度和国土空间规划体系,这是新时期建立空间治理体系的重要任务。在国务院新一轮的机构改革背景下,空间类规划的编制职能向自然资源部集中,急需探索和建立全国国土空间规划体系的总体框架和制度环境改革的推进路径。研究表明：国家国土空间规划体系的重建取决于三个方面,一是依赖于部门的职能整合,二是国土空间规划体系的整合与重构,三是依赖于制度环境改革。因此,在机构改革逐步完成的形势下,需要从国土空间规划体系重建与制度环境改革两个路径着手,从国家、省域、市县等层面阐述了中国国土空间规划体系的重建思路,构建五级四类、上下衔接、分级管理的国土空间规划体系。从确定国土空间开发保护制度、专业人才培养、规划资质管理、推进立法等几个方面推进制度环境改革。最后从推进国土空间规划立法、审批程序前置和推进相关法律法规修改完善等方面提出具体举措,以确立国土空间规划的法定地位与统领作用。结合新时期国土空间规划编制,提出了尽快出台国土空间规划编制办法和技术规程、重新调整中国国土空间规划编制的时序安排、加强技术队伍建设等若干建议。     

武汉市不同等级景区旅游吸引力时空变化

收集2018~2019年网络关注度等有关数据,利用地理集中指数和多元线性回归等方法,分析景区旅游吸引力时空变化及影响因素,结果发现:(1)景区级别越高,其吸引力半径越大,景区50%的客源市场集中在900km范围内,80%的客源市场集中在1 200 km范围内.(2)景区级别越高,旅游吸引力集中度往往越小,客源市场较分散.不同季节各景区旅游吸引力差异较大,旅游吸引力集中度有明显的季节变化.(3)各景区的平均旅游吸引力均存在距离衰减现象,级别越高的景区在不同空间距离范围内的吸引力相差较小,衰减速度较小.不同季节的旅游吸引力衰减速度有所不同.(4)在其它条件相同的情况下,城市经济发展水平越高、人口越多、距离越近,景区对其吸引力越强.     

基于2030年可持续发展目标的吉林省城镇化可持续发展评价

结合联合国2030年可持续发展目标（SDGs）构建城镇化可持续发展评价指标体系,从省内、外两个角度研究吉林省城镇化可持续发展状况。结果表明：吉林省城镇化可持续发展水平波动上升,发展趋势良好,大致可分为3个阶段;研究期内各子系统可持续发展水平均呈上升趋势,其中社会子系统上升幅度最大,经济子系统上升幅度最小。城镇化可持续发展水平空间格局呈“核心-边缘”结构,即长春市水平高、其它地区水平低;经济、社会、资源和环境子系统可持续发展水平总体上表现为“中东部高,西部低”。研究期内吉林省城镇化可持续发展水平低于黑龙江省,2015年后高于辽宁省;相较辽黑两省,吉林省社会子系统可持续发展水平较低。     

基于《地理学报》创刊85年载文的中国西南地区之地理研究

西南地区以其独特的地理现象一直为国内外地理学者所关注。通过对《地理学报》创刊以来85年间西南地区研究的载文分析,可以管窥其研究脉络,并予未来研究以启示。结果表明：① 232篇论文囊括了地理研究的若干主题,但以地貌、气象气候、综合自然地理和生态环境发文量最大,而城市、民族、交通、健康则关注较少;② 研究经历了传统区域研究、任务带学科、承上启下和多元化发展4个阶段;③ 论文在数量和内容上的阶段性变化,既受国家时事格局影响,也受地理学科研究范式发展变化影响;④ 《地理学报》有关西南地区的载文具有很高的研究水平,无论是在学术视野还是研究方法手段上,区域的自然、人文、社会经济与生态环境等诸多研究都站在了学术研究前沿,代表了学界对西南地理的研究情况;⑤ 但西南地理研究论文增长速度远赶不上《地理学报》载文量增长,外来研究机构占比很大,本土力量弱;相较自然地理,人文地理研究也少而弱。可见,西南地理研究当从新区域地理视角重新审视这一地区传统与现代的碰撞、边界的接触与冲突和区际的联系与竞争,继续成就西南地区重要的地理意义。     

Sediment routing in the Zagros foreland basin: Drainage reorganization and a shift from axial to transverse sediment dispersal in the Kurdistan region of Iraq

In the northwestern sector of the Zagros foreland basin, axial fluvial systems initially delivered fine-grained sediments from northwestern source regions into a contiguous basin, and later transverse fluvial systems delivered coarse-grained sediments from northeastern sources into a structurally partitioned basin by fold-thrust deformation. Here we integrate sedimentologic, stratigraphic, palaeomagnetic and geochronologic data from the northwestern Zagros foreland basin to define the Neogene history of deposition and sediment routing in response to progressive advance of the Zagros fold-thrust belt. This study constrains the depositional environments, timing of deposition and provenance of nonmarine clastic deposits of the Injana (Upper Fars), Mukdadiya (Lower Bakhtiari) and Bai-Hasan (Upper Bakhtiari) Formations in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Sediments of the Injana Formation (~12.4–7.75 Ma) were transported axially (orogen-parallel) from northwest to southeast by meandering and low-sinuosity channel belt system. In contrast, during deposition of the Mukdadiya Formation (~7.75–5 Ma), sediments were delivered transversely (orogen-perpendicular) from northeast to southwest by braided and low-sinuosity channel belt system in distributive fluvial megafans. By ~5 Ma, the northwestern Zagros foreland basin became partitioned by growth of the Mountain Front Flexure and considerable gravel was introduced in localized alluvial fans derived from growing topographic highs. Foredeep accumulation rates during deposition of the Injana, Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations averaged 350, 400 and 600 m/Myr respectively, suggesting accelerated accommodation generation in a rapidly subsiding basin governed by flexural subsidence. Detrital zircon U-Pb age spectra show that in addition to sources of Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover strata, the Injana Formation was derived chiefly from Palaeozoic-Precambrian (including Carboniferous and latest Neoproterozoic) strata in an axial position to the northwest, likely from the Bitlis-Puturge Massif and broader Eastern Anatolia. In contrast, the Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations yield distinctive Palaeogene U-Pb age peaks, particularly in the southeastern sector of the study region, consistent with transverse delivery from the arc-related terranes of the Walash and Naopurdan volcano-sedimentary groups (Gaveh-Rud domain?) and Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc to the northeast. These temporal and spatial variations in stratigraphic framework, depositional environments, sediment routing and compositional provenance reveal a major drainage reorganization during Neogene shortening in the Zagros fold-thrust belt. Whereas axial fluvial systems initially dominated the foreland basin during early orogenesis in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, transverse fluvial systems were subsequently established and delivered major sediment volumes to the foreland as a consequence of the abrupt deformation advance and associated topographic growth in the Zagros.     

浙江北山植物资源及其开发利用

北山位于浙江中部,地处中亚热带北缘,计有野生维管植物167科,574属,1149种。本文评价了北山植物资源的现状,提供了合理开发利用的途径,提出了今后开发利用的重点,并对植物资源的保护提出了一系列的建议。