Asperity models and characteristic earthquakes

Summary. An asperity model is presented, including the effects of coupled elementary faults. This coupling is introduced by way of percolation theory. We postulate that the elementary faults have a typical size, whose dimensions are of order 0.3–0.4 km, and two kinds of characteristic earthquakes are obtained, one in the low magnitude range involving the rupture of a single elementary fault, and one in the high magnitude range involving a percolated cluster of faultlets, whose dimensions are proportional to the total fault. The magnitude–frequency relation of this model is constructed and the Gutenberg–Richter relation is obtained with a b value of 1 in the range of intermediate earthquakes. A relative enhancement in the probability of occurrence of large earthquakes is also observed. This effect is associated with 'characteristic earthquakes', whose magnitudes are related to the size of the active fault. Possible premonitors are discussed.     

陕西潼关地区太华群变质岩原岩性质的恢复

潼关地区太华群地层是一套以角闪岩相为主(局部达麻粒岩相)的中深变质岩系。本区太华群变质岩的主要岩石类型:斜长片麻岩类的原岩为中酸性火山岩(二长安山质、英安质凝灰岩);浅(变)粒岩类的原岩为中酸性火山岩(英安岩,流纹岩)一中酸性火山碎屑岩(二长安山质、英安质凝灰岩),并以后者为主,还有少量粘土质沉积岩或长石质杂砂岩;斜长角闪岩的原岩为基性火山岩—拉斑玄武岩。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Unfairly Structured Cities . Blair Badcock Religion and Rural Revolt . Janos M. Bak and Gerhard Benecke The Industrial Geography of Canada . Anthony Blackbourn and Robert G. Putnam The Cuban-American Experience, Culture, Images, and Perspectives. Thomas D. Boswell and James R. Curtis Quaternary Paleoclimatology . R. S. Bradley Development and Crisis in Brazil, 1930–1983 . Luiz Bresser Pereiras Centres of Origin in Biogeography . John C. Briggs Analytical Urban Geography . Martin Cadwallader Geomorphology . Richard J. Chorley , Stanley A. Schumm, and David E. Sugden South Africa: The Impact of Past Geographies . A. J. Christopher The Geography of Underdevelopment. A Critical Survey . D. K. Forbes Health Care in Developing Countries . Wilbert M. Gesler Place to Grow Old: The Meaning of Environment in Old Age . Stephen M. Golant The Emerging Marine Economy of the Pacific . Chennat Gopalakrishnan An Introduction to Agricultural Geography . David B. Grigg The Soviet Union: A Geographical Study . G. Melvyn Howe Geographical Aspects of Health: Essays in Honour of Andrew Learmonth . N. D. Mc Glashan and J. R. Blunden Physical Geography: A Landscape Appreciation . Tom L. Mc Knight Mountain Experience. The Psychology and Sociology of Adventure. Richard G. Mitchell Jr . Systematic and Regional Biogeography. Stanley A. Morain The Economic Transformation of American Cities. T. J. Noyelle and T. M. Stanback , Jr . Normal Accidents: Living With High-Risk Technologies. Charles Perrow Vanishing Farmland: A Legal Solution for the States. Sarah E. Redfield Applied Methods of Regional Analysis: The Spatial Dimensions of Development Policy. Dennis A. Rondinelli Urbanization in Romania. A Geography of Social and Economic Change Since Independence. Per Ronnas Statistical Techniques in Geographical Analysis. Gareth Shaw and Dennis Wheeler The Granite Garden: Urban Nature and Human Design. Anne Whiston Spirn Political Geography: Recent Advances and Future Directions. Peter Taylor and John House Geographia y Medio Ambiente. Manuel Valenzuela -Rubío Nãgara and Commandery: Origins of the Southeast Asian Urban Traditions. Paul Wheatley The Common Fisheries Policy of the European Community. Mark Wise Geography and Gender. Women and Geography Study Group of the IBG Technological Hazards. D. J. Zeigler , J. H. Johnson , S. D. Brunn     

近40年京津冀蒸发皿蒸发量变化特征及影响因子

为了研究京津冀地区蒸发皿蒸发量的变化特征及成因,在京津冀地区200多个气象站中选择资料序列完整且具有较长时间序列、测站环境评分都在70分以上(按照中国气象局对测站探测环境评分标准评分)、均匀分布的87个气象站,利用1970—2013年京津冀地区87个气象站蒸发皿蒸发量以及其他气象要素的观测资料,采用线性倾向估计法和完全相关系数法,分析近44年来京津冀蒸发量变化特征及影响因子。结果表明,近44年来,京津冀地区年、季蒸发量呈明显下降趋势。全年蒸发量减少速率由大到小分别为:山前平原区太行山区冀东平原区燕山丘陵区冀北高原区(蒸发速率由北向南逐渐增大);四季中下降速率为:春季秋季冬季夏季。分析蒸发量与影响因子的完全相关系数发现,气温日较差、日照时数和平均风速是影响京津冀地区蒸发皿蒸发量变化的主要因子,在平原地区,平均风速是主导因子;在山区和高原地区,日照时数是主导因子。     

福建一次大暴雨过程的多尺度分析

利用常规气象资料、自动气象站降水资料和NCEP再分析1°×1°等资料,对福建2017年6月初一次强降水过程进行多尺度分析。结果表明:(1)冷空气与暖湿气流相互作用形成持续性暴雨,中尺度系统的活动导致短时暴雨。(2)较大的风暴相对螺旋度,低层的正涡度和中低层的上升运动有利于中尺度对流系统(MCS)的发展和维持;强烈的热力不稳定和较强的垂直风切变是中尺度对流发展的环境特征。(3)强的整层水汽通量和水汽辐合为暴雨区提供水汽来源和水汽条件。(4)锋生的大小和位置对降水的强度和落区有很好的指示作用;低层以水平锋生为主,中层以垂直锋生为主,有利于成片暴雨的发生。(5)中尺度系统对天气尺度的水汽辐合和边界层对流不稳定条件有增幅作用;上下两支次级环流的上升支叠加,有利于低层不稳定能量的释放,促进中尺度系统的发展。     

基于复杂网络的城市公交网络研究综述

近年来,基于复杂网络理论的城市公交网络研究得到了人们的广泛关注,相关的研究成果有助于深入理解城市公交网络的运行机理,并为这类网络的设计、优化与控制提供帮助.首先介绍了城市公交网络的研究背景、城市公交系统的网络描述和相关的网络概念.然后从网络的静态特性分析、演化生成建模、行为研究和应用研究等方面对国内外的研究现状进行了总结和分析.最后,总结并讨论了当前基于复杂网络的城市公交网络的研究状况与发展机遇.     

南疆典型城市环境质量与风向特征分析

利用1981—2015年气象观测资料,选择阿克苏市、喀什市、和田市、阿图什市4市作为样本,分析了南疆典型城市的气候基本特征,并探讨了它们的风向特征;结合2016年相应城市空气污染物SO2、NO2、PM10、CO、O3、PM2.5环境监测日报数据,分析了典型城市环境质量特征。结果表明:(1)4个城市年降水少、蒸发量大,日照时数长,浮尘、扬沙频发,属于典型的"沙漠-绿洲"生态脆弱城市。(2)4个城市的空气质量较差,首要污染物是PM10,其次是PM2.5。(3)根据风向资料,绘制4个城市的风向频率玫瑰图和污染系数玫瑰图,综合考虑阿克苏城市环境功能区划分时工业区应选在WSW方向;喀什市工业区应选在NNE方向;阿图什市工业区应选在NNW方向,其次是S方向;和田市工业区可选在NNE方向。(4)南疆四市在城市开发过程中应建设多层次的绿化结构,充分利用地域特点,发展绿色经济,提高城市的生态承载力。4个城市进行工业园区布局时,应从大局出发,做好宏观的科学的统筹规划。     

VARIABILITY IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SEA TEMPERATURE VARIATION CONSIDERING THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE WARMING OVER THE PAST 60 YEARS

By adopting characteristic index data for the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) from the National Climate Center of China, U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sea surface temperature (SST) data, we studied the WPSH variability considering the background of climate warming by using a Gaussian filter, moving averages, correlation analysis, and synthetic analysis. Our results show that with climate warming over the past 60 years, significant changes in the WPSH include its enlarged area, strengthened intensity, westward extended ridge point and southward expanded southern boundary, as well as enhanced interannual fluctuations in all these indices. The western ridge point of the WPSH consistently varies with temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere, but the location of the ridgeline varies independently. The intensity and area of the WPSH were both significantly increased in the late 1980s. Specifically, the western ridge point started to significantly extend westward in the early 1990s, and the associated interannual variability had a significant increase in the late 1990s; in addition, the ridgeline was swaying along the north-south-north direction, and the corresponding variability was also greatly enhanced in the late 1990s. With climate warming, the SST increase becomes more weakly correlated with the WPSH intensity enhancement but more strongly correlated with the westward extension of the ridge point in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean in winter, corresponding to an expanding WPSH in space. In the northern Pacific in winter, the SST decrease has a weaker correlation with the southerly location of the ridgeline but also a stronger correlation with the westward extension of the ridge point. In the tropical western Pacific in winter, the correlations of the SST decrease with the WPSH intensity enhancement, and the westward extension of the ridge point is strengthened. These observations can be explained by strengthened Hadley circulations, the dominant effects of the southward shift, and additional effects of the weakened ascending branch of the Walker circulation during warm climatological periods, which consequently lead to strengthened intensities, increased areas, and southward expansions of the WPSH in summer.