长江日流量混沌变化特性研究——Ⅰ相空间嵌入滞时的确定

为了以新途径探索长江水量变化规律并在此基础上做出预测,全面而系统地研究了宜昌站日流量混沌变化特性并建立了新预测模型.重点论述相空间嵌入滞时的确定.分析了传统的自相关函数法和真实矢量场法确定嵌入滞时的优劣,并提出以广义相关函数合理确定嵌入滞时的方法.研究结果表明广义相关函数法是一个合理又可操作的途径.     

安宁河-则木河-小江带的强震构造环境和运动速率

研究了安宁河——则木河一小江断裂带的强震构造环境和展源力学机制；据该带历史强震计算分析了地震短张量年速率；据该带跨断层形变观测资料分析了断裂带水平和垂直形变年速率；并就潜在地展危险性进行了讨论.     

青海平安电磁辐射在中强震前短期前兆异常特征及预报效能研究

分析和整理了青海平安电磁辐射台自1993年7月以来的资料，发现震前平安单台电磁辐射在中强地震临震前有最大脉冲信号，并通过对无震异常，地震异常的分析判断，对其预报效能进行了R值评价。     

河南及邻区地震前中小地震活跃-平静的定量指标研究

以累计频度定量计算方法，分区讨论了河南及邻区1970年以来地震活动非线性度ZL值的时间进程曲线，系统计算了M≥5．0级地震前的ZL值，结果表明：开始出现活跃(平静)异常的时间集中在地震前1—2年，结束异常的时间在地震前一年内，集中于0—4个月。同时提出了异常的定量指标以及发震类型。     

安宁河-则木河-小江带强震趋势的预测依据和应用问题

分析了近年沿安宁河一则木河一小江断裂带和大凉山断裂带出现的突出地震活动性、跨断层地壳形变和宏、微观异常现象。根据这些异常依据分析了强震趋势及预测应用问题，并进行了有益的思考。     

德令哈6．6级地震前地震活动及地震序列特征

德令哈6．6级地震发生在青海省地震局2003年度会商确定的应注意地区内，震前测震学出现多项中短期异常。该地震序列从其能量释放比、震级差均符合主震一余震型判断指标，为主震-余震型序列。序列跟踪工作总结出该序列早期阶段(20天内)预测强余震的几项指标。     

石泉ML4．7级地震前天水深井水温的短临异常特征

分析了天水台数字深井水温资料在陕西石泉ML4．7级地震前的异常特征，发现在震前5天内深井水温发生大幅度的降升变化，呈负脉冲形态，表现为典型的脉冲型前兆异常形态特征。     

利用NOAA AVHRR数据研究北半球雪盖气候学特征

利用NOAA卫星图像,研究了北半球、欧亚、北美和青藏高原雪盖气候学特征及其变化趋势.指出北半球、欧亚和北美雪盖气候变化趋势基本一致,年均雪盖面积在1987年前后明显下降; 而青藏高原雪盖面积在1984年后明显下降,说明青藏高原雪盖的年际变化与北半球及欧亚、北美不完全一致.     

Pn arrivals and lateral variations of Moho geometry beneath the Kaapvaal craton

Pn arrivals from mining-induced earthquakes on the edge of the Witwatersrand basin show that the P wavespeeds in the uppermost mantle are almost constant throughout most of the Kaapvaal craton. The presence of only small wavespeed variations allows the use of a simple method of estimating crustal thicknesses below the stations of the Kaapvaal broad-band network using Pn times that has been compared with results from receiver functions. One thousand three hundred thirty-seven Pn arrivals were used to derive crustal thicknesses at 46 stations on the Kaapvaal craton. The average crustal thicknesses for 19 centrally located stations on each of the northern and southern regions of the craton that yielded well-constrained thicknesses were 50.52±0.88 km and 38.07±0.85 km, respectively. In contrast, the corresponding average thicknesses determined from receiver functions were 43.58±0.57 km and 37.58±0.70 km, respectively. The systematically lower values for receiver functions in the northern part of the Kaapvaal craton that was affected by the Bushveld magmatism at 2.05 Ga, suggest that the receiver functions do not enable the petrological crust mantle boundary to be reliably resolved due to variations in composition and metamorphic grade in a mafic lower crust. The Pn times also suggest pervasive azimuthal anisotropy with maximum wavespeeds of about 8.40 km/s at azimuths of about 15° and 217° in the northern and southern regions of the craton, respectively, and minimum wavespeeds of about 8.25 km/s.     

Flexure of the Indian plate and intraplate earthquakes

The flexural bulge in central India resulting from India's collision with Tibet has a wavelength of approximately 670 km. It is manifest topographically and in the free-air gravity anomaly and the geoid. Calculations of the stress distribution within a flexed Indian plate reveal spatial variations throughout the depth of the plate and also a function of distance from the Himalaya. The wavelength (and therefore local gradient) of stress variation is a function of the effective elastic thickness of the plate, estimates of which have been proposed to lie in the range 40–120 km. The imposition of this stress field on the northward moving Indian plate appears fundamental to explaining the current distribution of intraplate earthquakes and their mechanisms. The current study highlights an outer trough south of the flexural bulge in central India where surface stresses are double the contiguous compressional stresses to the north and south. The Bhuj, Latur and Koyna earthquakes and numerous other recent reverse faulting events occurred in this compressional setting. The N/S spatial gradient of stress exceeds 2 bars/km near the flexural bulge. The overall flexural stress distribution provides a physical basis for earthquake hazard mapping and suggests that areas of central India where no historic earthquakes are recorded may yet be the locus of future damaging events.