若尔盖湿地近25年湿地变化及分形特征分析

文章利用若尔盖湿地国家级自然保护区1989、1995、2001、2007和2014年5期遥感影像,研究了近25年保护区湿地面积的变化趋势,探索了保护区湿地分形维数的变化规律、质心的空间变化特征以及气候与湿地变化的相关性。研究结果表明:近25年,保护区湿地面积总体呈下降趋势,总共减少了52.28 hm2;保护区受到人为因素的干扰较大;湿地分布的质心向东北方向偏移;湿地面积变化与区域年平均温度相关性最大,与日照时数相关性最小。     

风暴的自动识别、跟踪与预报

利用多普勒雷达体扫描资料对风暴进行实时地自动识别、跟踪、结构分析和临近预报。风暴的识别基于某个连续区域的体积和雷达反射率大于给定的体积阈值和反射率阈值;用矩心跟踪法匹配相邻两时刻的风暴,对风暴的合并与分裂进行了处理;根据风暴在过去各个时刻的中心位置和体积,利用最小二乘法进行线性外推来预报其在下一时刻的位置和面积。结果表明本方法能较好地识别、跟踪和警戒强对流性天气。     

Sediment Transport Investigation in the Yangtze Estuary with Radioactive Tracer

- This paper describes a radioactive tracer experiment carried out at the landward spoil site of the North Passage in the Yangtze Estuary in June, 1991. Scandium -46 was selected as the tracer, the total activity released was 179.45 GBq and the amount of the Sandium-46 glass was 495 g. The purpose of the experiment was to determine the sediment movement direction, path, velocity and transport rate, and therefore, to provide direct evidence for using the landward spoil site in the future. The experimental results showed that the sediment movement was governed by the ebb tide current during the period of mean and neap tides when the radioactive tracer was injected both on the flood and ebb tides, and the sediment moved from the release point to the middle of the North Passage near navigation buoy No. 269. The direciton of the sediment movement was 110 ° , the particle velocity was 758 m/d, and the sediment transport rate per unit width was 47.8 m3 / md.     

基于VSP资料进行的吸收系数Q值反演

采用比较热门和精确的心迹线法实现利用地震VSP资料进行Q值反演。通过实例验算,证实了这种方法的可行性和有效性。在反演过程中,该方法对超过350 m的厚层反演效果较为准确,对薄层其反演效果不稳定,但总体趋势不会有大的变化。     

近20年来山东半岛东部海水养殖水面的动态变化

基于1995、2005、2015年3期遥感影像,在ENVI和Arc GIS软件的支持下,对山东半岛东部近20a来的养殖水面面积及质心变化情况进行了分析,研究结果表明:(1)1995~2015年,养殖水面面积总体呈现增长趋势,共增加425.06 km~2.其中养殖池面积在1995~2015年增加了83.41 km~2,增加的面积主要集中在丁字河口、郝庆口、五垒岛湾、太平湾.在2005~2015年近10 a间养殖池面积呈现明显减少趋势,共减少40.43 km~2,主要集中在五垒岛湾、太平湾.浮筏养殖和网箱养殖在近20a来面积以增加为主,共增加了382.08 km~2,主要集中在套子湾-芝罘湾-金山湾-郝庆口沿海海域,以及乳山口-五垒岛湾-靖海湾等海域.(2)养殖池面积先增加后减少的主要原因是:海鲜市场的大量需求导致1995~2005年养殖池面积迅速增加,由于环境保护以及旅游经济的需要,导致2005~2015年养殖池面积下降;浮筏养殖和网箱养殖面积的持续增加主要受海鲜市场需求及政府政策激励的结果.(3)近20a间,养殖池质心变化不大,共向西南方向偏移9.03 km;浮筏养殖和网箱养殖质心变化较大,共向西南方向偏移了15.24 km,由原来的荣成市偏移到了文登市,浮筏养殖和网箱养殖质心的偏移主要受乳山口、五垒岛湾、靖海湾海域的浮筏养殖和网箱养殖的养殖力度加大的影响.     

Evaluation of earthquake parameters used in the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System

Twenty-two of a total of 30 earthquake events reported by the Indonesian Agency for Geophysics, Climatology and Meteorology during the time period 2007–2010 were falsely issued as tsunamigenic by the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS). These 30 earthquakes were of different magnitudes and occurred in different locations. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Ina-TEWS using common earthquake parameters, including the earthquake magnitude, origin time, depth, and epicenter. In total, 298 datasets assessed by the Ina-TEWS and the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) method were assessed. The global CMT method is considered by almost all seismologists to be a reference for the determination of these parameters as they have been proved to be accurate. It was found that the earthquake magnitude, origin time, and depth provided by the Ina-TEWS were significantly different from those given in the global CMT catalog, whereas the latitude and longitude positions of the events provided by both tsunami assessment systems were coincident. The performance of the Ina-TEWS, particularly in terms of accuracy, remains questionable and needs to be improved.     

A preliminary study on the relation between the thermal and geometric surface centroids of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

Numerous published results have showr the importance of the Wcstern Pacific Warm Pool （WPWP）surface centroid movement in ENSO-（EI Nino/Southcrn Oscillation）rclated studies .Howcver,some rccent research conclusions make it necessary to clarify the differenccs of the currently exicing two types of WPWP surface centroid：the geometric centroid and the thermal （heat）centrold.This study analyzes the physical backgrounds of the two typcs of centroid and points out their differenccs.which suggest that different types of ccntroid may scrve different study purposes.This study also shows that the ‘geometric center’of WPWP.actually a close approximation to the mass ccntroid,is more related to the Nino-3 region sca surfacc temperaturc（SST）ancmaly and can also be regarded as an important indicator of ENSO events.     

1978-2004年天津城市空间形态的时空变化

Taken fractal dimension, compact ratio, urban centroid and urban principal axis as the urban spatial characteristic indices, Tianjin city’s urban area is investigated in the last 26 years in a quantitative perspective, and its traits and changes during different periods are also analyzed. It is clear that these indices can not only scientifically and explicitly assess the urban morphology, urban direction and its changes and trends, but also uncover long-term effects of economy and urban planning on urban morphology.     

全球GPS矢量场的分区描述及规律性分析

以平均选择的GPS站点运动年速率编制了全球板块运动矢量场,从而揭示了以下几点规律:1从北大西洋洋脊东侧起,直至西北太平洋岛弧带,欧亚大板块总体呈现顺时针宽弧形运动;2从北大西洋洋脊西侧直至美洲大陆西边缘,北美大板块呈现反时针宽弧形运动;3从南大西洋洋脊东侧起,直至克马德克—新西兰一线,非洲板块和印—澳板块一并呈现从北东指向渐变为北北东指向的运动;4东南太平洋洋脊西侧太平洋板块总体向北西西方向运动;5东南太平洋脊东侧海底大小板块总体向北东东运动;6南美洲整体向北运动;7北极区总体向太平洋北缘运动;南极洲总体向大西洋区运动,并有分裂—对旋迹象。分析上述运动的分区展布,可推论以下几点运动动力学的认识:1拖动全球板块一级运动势态的地幔流可分解为由南极区向北的径向流与由大西洋洋脊和东南太平洋洋脊的东西两侧纬向流的二元动力联合作用,从而造成全球性指向北东和北西的斜向运动;2以重力大地水准面所展现的低阶双重非对称的地球,是引导表壳发育张裂洋脊带和汇聚俯冲带的力学条件;3沿赤道两侧不协调运动带呈现压扭、张扭的复杂变动除了南半球与北半球地幔流在运动指向和速度的差异而造成之外,还可能与地球质心的偏心和南、北半球自转速度的差异变化有关;4南极洲相对环南极洋脊的偏极分流运动还有待进一步研究。在以上认识的基础上,本文讨论了造成三大洋脊在全球表壳的分布、全球深俯冲带仅仅在环太平洋边缘带内发育、北半球和南半球的板块径向、纬向运动有整体性差异等问题的原因。造成上述现象是与地球整体的双重不对称性有关,即北、南半球和0°/180°半球的缩、胀和快、慢的双重非对称,而这种双重不对称性是地球内部物质的热状态、运动状态以及质量分布等原因造成的,我们认为以重力大地水准面所展现的低阶双重非对称的地球表壳,既是约束地幔流的上边界条件,又是引导表壳发育张裂带的力学条件,目前地球表面的这些一级构造因素并不是随意造成的,它们有着深刻的地球物理背景。本文还着重讨论了双重非对称畸形壳体的构造力学背景,根据GPS资料建立了地球热流驱动的地幔经、纬向一级对流格局。