POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON AQUATIC SYSTEMS: LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES AND PRECAMBRIAN SHIELD REGION

The region studied includes the Laurentian Great Lakes and a diversity of smaller glacial lakes, streams and wetlands south of permanent permafrost and towards the southern extent of Wisconsin glaciation. We emphasize lakes and quantitative implications. The region is warmer and wetter than it has been over most of the last 12000 years. Since 1911 observed air temperatures have increased by about 0·11°C per decade in spring and 0·06°C in winter; annual precipitation has increased by about 2·1% per decade. Ice thaw phenologies since the 1850s indicate a late winter warming of about 2·5°C. In future scenarios for a doubled CO₂ climate, air temperature increases in summer and winter and precipitation decreases (summer) in western Ontario but increases (winter) in western Ontario, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Such changes in climate have altered and would further alter hydrological and other physical features of lakes. Warmer climates, i.e. 2 × CO₂ climates, would lower net basin water supplies, stream flows and water levels owing to increased evaporation in excess of precipitation. Water levels have been responsive to drought and future scenarios for the Great Lakes simulate levels 0·2 to 2·5 m lower. Human adaptation to such changes is expensive. Warmer climates would decrease the spatial extent of ice cover on the Great Lakes; small lakes, especially to the south, would no longer freeze over every year. Temperature simulations for stratified lakes are 1–7°C warmer for surface waters, and 6°C cooler to 8°C warmer for deep waters. Thermocline depth would change (4 m shallower to 3·5 m deeper) with warmer climates alone; deepening owing to increases in light penetration would occur with reduced input of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from dryer catchments. Dissolved oxygen would decrease below the thermocline. These physical changes would in turn affect the phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos and fishes. Annual phytoplankton production may increase but many complex reactions of the phytoplankton community to altered temperatures, thermocline depths, light penetrations and nutrient inputs would be expected. Zooplankton biomass would increase, but, again, many complex interactions are expected. Generally, the thermal habitat for warm-, cool- and even cold-water fishes would increase in size in deep stratified lakes, but would decrease in shallow unstratified lakes and in streams. Less dissolved oxygen below the thermocline of lakes would further degrade stratified lakes for cold water fishes. Growth and production would increase for fishes that are now in thermal environments cooler than their optimum but decrease for those that are at or above their optimum, provided they cannot move to a deeper or headwater thermal refuge. The zoogeographical boundary for fish species could move north by 500–600 km; invasions of warmer water fishes and extirpations of colder water fishes should increase. Aquatic ecosystems across the region do not necessarily exhibit coherent responses to climate changes and variability, even if they are in close proximity. Lakes, wetlands and streams respond differently, as do lakes of different depth or productivity. Differences in hydrology and the position in the hydrological flow system, in terrestrial vegetation and land use, in base climates and in the aquatic biota can all cause different responses. Climate change effects interact strongly with effects of other human-caused stresses such as eutrophication, acid precipitation, toxic chemicals and the spread of exotic organisms. Aquatic ecological systems in the region are sensitive to climate change and variation. Assessments of these potential effects are in an early stage and contain many uncertainties in the models and properties of aquatic ecological systems and of the climate system. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-level participation for building adaptive capacity: Formal agency-community interactions in northern Kenya

Multi-level, networked participation is a vital component in building social–ecological resilience and the capacity to adapt to environmental change. This paper outlines the ways in which multi-level participation contributes to adaptive capacity and, in so doing, takes a step toward articulating a theory of participation based on resilience thinking. We use a case study of Gabra pastoralist communities of northern Kenya to illustrate how multi-level participation may lead to increasing adaptive capacity, above and beyond existing pastoralist adaptations. The findings suggest that adaptive capacity is systemic—that is to say, it is a property of the social–ecological system, including especially the network of institutional linkages that characterizes that system, as much as it is a property of particular actors within the system. We argue that there are three key elements of meaningful multi-level participation: an institutional environment in which the various levels of institutions are linked, inclusivity in decision-making at these various levels, and deliberation. These three features can work together to create meaningful multi-level participation, to facilitate the co-production of knowledge and to build adaptive capacity.     

Symposium On Sediment Storage In Rivers And Estuaries

Book Reviewed in this article:

Geographical Aspects of Health and Disease in India. Rais Akhtarand A.T.A. Learmonth, eds.

Antarctic Treaty System: An Assessment. Proceedings of a Workshop at Beardmore South Field Camp, Antarctica.

American Electoral Mosaics. J. Clark Archerand Fred M. Shelley.

Kompas op Suidwes-Afrika/Namibie. W.S. Barnard, ed.

Jerusalem in the 19th Century: The Old City. Yehoshua Ben-Arieh.

The World as a Total System. Kenneth E. Boulding.

A Social History of Housing 1815–1985, Second Ed. John Burnett.

Human Migration. W.A.V. Clark.

Regional Population Projection Models. Andrei Rogers.

The State of Population Theory: Forward from Malthus. David Colemanand Roger Schofield, eds.

Imagining Tomorrow: History, Technology and the American Future. Joseph C. Corn, ed.

Swidden Agriculture in Indonesia: The Subsistence Strategies of the Kalimantan Kantú. Michael R. Dove.

Glacial Geologic Processes. David Drewry.

Physics of Desertification. Farouk El-Bazand M.H.A. Hassan, eds.

Housing the Homeless. Jon Ericksonand Charles Wilhelm, eds.

Settlement Patterns in Missouri: A Study of Population Origins, with a Wall Map. Russel L. Gerlach.

Desert Development: Man and Technology in Sparselands. Yehuda Gradus, ed.

Nuclear Winter. The Evidence and Risks. Owen Greene, Ian Percivaland Irene Ridge.

The Take-off of Suburbia and the Crisis of the Central City. Günter Heinritzand Elisabeth Lichtenberger, eds.

Regional Input-Output Analysis. Geoffrey J. D. Hewings.

Spatial Transportation Modeling. Christian Werner.

The Atlas of Georgia. Thomas W. Hodlerand Howard A. Schretter, eds.

Latin America. 5th ed. Preston E. Jamesand C.W. Minkel.

Applied Remote Sensing. C.P. Lo.

Localities, Class, and Gender. The Lancaster Regionalism Group.

Urban Social Movements: The City after Castells. Stuart Lowe.

Politics and Method. Doreen Masseyand Richard Meegan, eds.

Land Use. A. S. Mather.

The Kingdom of Coal. Donald L. Millerand Richard E. Sharpless.

The Presidio and Militia on the Northern Frontier of New Spain, A Documentary History, Vol. 1: 1570–1700. Thomas H. Naylorand Charles W. Polzer, S.J., comps. andeds.

Nuclear Power: Siting and Safety. Stan Openshaw.

The Central African Republic: The Continent's Hidden Heart. Thomas O'Toole.

Environmental and Dynamic Geomorphology. Márton Pécsi, ed.

Remote Sensing Principles and Interpretation. Floyd F. Sabins, Jr.

Acid Rain and Friendly Neighbors: The Policy Dispute between Canada and the United States. Jurgen Schmandtand Hilliard Roderick, eds.

Earth's Changing Surface: An Introduction to Geomorphology. M.J. Selby.

International Migration: The Female Experience. Rita J. Simonand Caroline B. Brettell, eds.

On Geography and Its History. D.R. Stoddart.

Transportation Networks: A Quantitative Approach. D. Teodorovic.

Processes in Physical Geography. R.D. Thompson, A.M. Mannion, C.W. Mitchell, M. Parry, J.R.G. Townshend.

Imaging Radar for Resources Surveys. J.W. Trevett.

Dominance and Affection: The Making of Pets. Yi-Fu Tuan.

Capturing the Horizon. The Historical Geography of Transportation since the Transportation Revolution of the Sixteenth Century. James E. Vance, Jr.

Nations at Risk: The Impact of the Computer Revolution. Edward Yourdon.     

A major widespread climatic change around 5300 cal. yr BP at the time of the Alpine Iceman

Palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data from Arbon Bleiche, Lake Constance (Switzerland) give evidence of a rapid rise in lake‐level dated by tree‐ring and radiocarbon to 5320 cal. yr BP. This rise event was the latest in a series of three successive episodes of higher lake‐level between 5550 and 5300 cal. yr BP coinciding with glacier advance and tree‐limit decline in the Alps. This west‐central European climate change may have favoured the quick burial and the preservation of the Alpine Iceman recently found in the Tyrolean Alps. It has possible equivalents in many records from various regions in both hemispheres dating to 5600–5000 cal. yr BP and corresponds to global cooling and contrasting patterns of hydrological changes. This major mid‐Holocene climate event marks the Hypsithermal/Neoglaciation transition possibly resulting from a combination of different factors including orbital forcing, changes in ocean circulation and variations in solar activity. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

80年代以来我国区域旅客生成特征分析

我国改革开放以来旅客运输迅速发展,空间分布格局发生了重要变化,与我国区域社会经济发展有着十分密切的关联.利用空间运输联系理论和实证分析方法,对于旅客生成特征、区域差异及其原因进行的分析表明:20世纪80年代以来全国以及各地区的旅客生成密度大幅度增长.同时,省级区域旅客生成密度分布格局发生了明显的变化;省级区域旅客生成密度的相对差距20世纪80年代上升、90年代有所下降;高客运密度区从相对均衡分布变为向南方区域倾斜.这种变化的主要影响因素有三:经济增长、人口流动和交通网发展.     

Urban hierarchy of innovation capability and inter-city linkages of knowledge in post-reform China

The 2000s has witnessed increasing interests in cities′role of innovation in the era of knowledge-based economy.Compared with substantial empirical analysis on the world city hierarchy of innovation,this paper attempts to examine the national urban hierarchy of innovation capability in China,in terms of ranking systems,spatial pattern and inter-city linkages of knowledge during the post-reform period since the late 1970s.Based on quantitative analysis such as principal component factor analysis and clustering analysis,this paper identifies the five-tier hierarchy of in-novation,which is headed by Beijing and Shanghai,followed by the capital cities of each province and regional centre cities.The development of China′s urban hierarchy of innovation capability has been driven by such factors as the scale of innovation,scientific scale,innovation potential and innovation environment.The paper further investigates the inter-city linkages of knowledge measured by the number of co-authored papers among the cities.Beijing is positioned in the central position of the knowledge diffusion and knowledge cooperation innovation.More knowledge diffusion among high level cities has occurred than that among the low level cities as well as between the low level cities and high level cities,and provincial capital cities and the regional central cities.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Geographical Aspects of Health and Disease in India . Rais Akhtar and A.T.A. Learmonth , eds . Antarctic Treaty System: An Assessment . Proceedings of a Workshop at Beardmore South Field Camp, Antarctica. American Electoral Mosaics . J. Clark Archer and Fred M. Shelley . Kompas op Suidwes-Afrika/Namibie . W.S. Barnard , ed . Jerusalem in the 19th Century: The Old City . Yehoshua Ben -Arieh . The World as a Total System . Kenneth E. Boulding . A Social History of Housing 1815–1985, Second Ed . John Burnett . Human Migration . W.A.V. Clark . Regional Population Projection Models . Andrei Rogers . The State of Population Theory: Forward from Malthus . David Coleman and Roger Schofield , eds . Imagining Tomorrow: History, Technology and the American Future . Joseph C. Corn , ed. Swidden Agriculture in Indonesia: The Subsistence Strategies of the Kalimantan Kantú . Michael R. Dove . Glacial Geologic Processes . David Drewry . Physics of Desertification . Farouk El -Baz and M.H.A. Hassan , eds . Housing the Homeless . Jon Erickson and Charles Wilhelm , eds . Settlement Patterns in Missouri: A Study of Population Origins, with a Wall Map . Russel L. Gerlach . Desert Development: Man and Technology in Sparselands . Yehuda Gradus , ed . Nuclear Winter. The Evidence and Risks . Owen Greene , Ian Percival and Irene Ridge . The Take-off of Suburbia and the Crisis of the Central City . Günter Heinritz and Elisabeth Lichtenberger , eds . Regional Input-Output Analysis . Geoffrey J. D. Hewings . Spatial Transportation Modeling . Christian Werner . The Atlas of Georgia . Thomas W. Hodler and Howard A. Schretter , eds . Latin America. 5th ed . Preston E. James and C.W. Minkel . Applied Remote Sensing . C.P. Lo . Localities, Class, and Gender . The Lancaster Regionalism Group . Urban Social Movements: The City after Castells . Stuart Lowe . Politics and Method . Doreen Massey and Richard Meegan , eds . Land Use . A. S. Mather . The Kingdom of Coal . Donald L. Miller and Richard E. Sharpless . The Presidio and Militia on the Northern Frontier of New Spain, A Documentary History, Vol. 1: 1570–1700 . Thomas H. Naylor and Charles W. Polzer , S.J., comps . and eds . Nuclear Power: Siting and Safety . Stan Openshaw . The Central African Republic: The Continent's Hidden Heart . Thomas O'Toole . Environmental and Dynamic Geomorphology . Márton Pécsi , ed . Remote Sensing Principles and Interpretation . Floyd F. Sabins , Jr . Acid Rain and Friendly Neighbors: The Policy Dispute between Canada and the United States . Jurgen Schmandt and Hilliard Roderick , eds . Earth's Changing Surface: An Introduction to Geomorphology . M.J. Selby . International Migration: The Female Experience . Rita J. Simon and Caroline B. Brettell , eds . On Geography and Its History . D.R. Stoddart . Transportation Networks: A Quantitative Approach . D. Teodorovic . Processes in Physical Geography . R.D. Thompson , A.M. Mannion , C.W. Mitchell , M. Parry , J.R.G. Townshend . Imaging Radar for Resources Surveys . J.W. Trevett . Dominance and Affection: The Making of Pets . Yi -Fu Tuan . Capturing the Horizon. The Historical Geography of Transportation since the Transportation Revolution of the Sixteenth Century . James E. Vance , Jr . Nations at Risk: The Impact of the Computer Revolution . Edward Yourdon .     

基于传输速度的中国城市节点间互联网信息联系通达性研究

通过对网站信息传输速度数据连续6个月的采集,编制出中国31个城市节点间信息传输速度矩阵。运用因子分析法计算出各城市节点对应的综合得分,并划分出等级,进而对最优等级/最差等级所涉及的城市节点进行频次统计,以分析信息联系通达性的等级特征。通过传输速度的等级划分,揭示高速连接线路和较高速连接线路的空间特征,最后对若干影响因素进行解释。研究发现:城市节点的输出和输入速度不一致,输出最优节点都处于主干网或与北京直接相连,输入最优节点与主干网关系不密切,输出和输入最差节点多处在网络末端;互联网信息联系通达性与传统城市等级间的正向对应关系发生偏转,传统等级靠前的城市节点信息传输通达性较弱;影响信息联系通达性的因素包括网络设置与网络组织、信息化建设与城市等级、网络服务运营商及其互通等,互联网服务商的供给和用户需求的对接有待改善。