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利用一个简单的月水量平衡模型,模拟了位于中国不同气候区的21个典型流域的径流量过程,采用假定的气候情景,分析了河川径流量对不同气候变化的敏感性。结果表明,所采用的月水量平衡模型能够较好地模拟不同气候区的月流量过程,21个典型流域的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数大多超过65%,水量平衡误差也均控制在1%以内。黄河以北干旱半干旱地区的典型流域径流量对气温和降水变化的响应敏感,其次为华中、华南半湿润区和湿润区,西部高寒山区径流对气候变化的响应最弱。因此,中国适应气候变化的重点应集中在干旱半干旱地区。 相似文献
844.
845.
The effect of topography on moss vegetation is examined to clarify the processes that affect the colonization of polar deserts on continental Antarctica. Data on the presence of the mosses Bryum pseudotriquetrum and Pottia heimii, and relative altitude were recorded. The altitude measurements were used to infer the underlying topographical attributes of the substrate in the study plots. Specifically, the local distribution of moss plants was clarified using the topographical attributes to construct generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The models suggested that steep slopes and convex microhabitats within areas of concave general relief (at the plot scale 4 × 4 m) promoted the establishment of moss. This correspondence to general relief was more apparent for B. pseudotriquetrum than for P. heimii. Among the study plots, general relief was found to be an important determinant of the precise spatial distribution of B. pseudotriquetrum. The standard surface estimated using the robust methods presented in this study is shown to be more accurate for describing moss distribution than the prevailing least-squares method. 相似文献
846.
Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually. 相似文献
847.
848.
本文对比了鞍本地区前寒武纪铅-锌-银矿区和铀矿区的硫化物矿石和花岗岩长石Pb同位素组成,分别用矿石铅二阶段普通铅法、铅构造模式图解和全岩铅同位素组成三阶段拟合法计算了年龄和全岩原始铀含量。结果表明,矿石铅和长石铅模式年龄约为2000 Ma,在铅构造模式图上投影于2000~1600 Ma间,花岗岩和辽河群全岩拟合年龄为2000~1800 Ma;铅同位素组成显示铅-锌-银来自早元古代辽河群地层,连山关地区明显为放射性成因Pb同位素组成,源于富铀花岗岩。连山关矿石铅年龄和全岩三阶段年龄与该区铀矿床沥青铀矿的年龄基本一致;花岗岩原始铀的得失计算表明,该地区不同地质体均经历了约2000~1800 Ma花岗岩重熔改造,花岗质岩石发生了铀的丢失,是连山关地区铀矿的主要来源。 相似文献
849.
海洋沉积地质过程模拟:性质与问题及前景 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
高抒 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2011,(5):1-7
探讨了海洋沉积地质数值模拟的功能问题.地球科学研究以正演方法(以数值模拟为代表)和反演方法(以地层记录分析为代表)的结合为特征.数值模拟作为一种重要的研究工具,具有获得过程和机理分析结果、形成工作假说、指导现场观测和采样的作用.与此同时,在正反演交融中模型本身也得到了提高和完善.在海洋沉积地质领域,数值模拟在沉积物输运... 相似文献
850.
Javier Sellanes Germán Zapata-Hernández Silvio Pantoja Gerdhard L. Jessen 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011
We analyzed C and N stable isotope ratios of benthic fauna and their potential food sources at an intertidal methane seep site and a control site without emanation at Mocha Island (central Chile). The objective was to trace the origin of the main food sources used by the local heterotrophic fauna, based on the hypothesis that chemosynthetic production could be partially fueling the local food web at the seep site. Food sources sampled at both sites included macroalgae, particulate organic matter and bacteria-like filaments found growing over the red algae Gelidium lingulatum within the areas of active methane release. 相似文献