Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

Calibration and identifiability analysis of a water quality model to evaluate the contribution of different processes to the short-term dynamics of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients in the surface water of a rural catchment

A method that combines calibration and identifiability analysis of a dynamic water quality model to evaluate the relative importance of various processes affecting the dynamic aspects of water composition is illustrated by a study of the response of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients to a flood hydrograph in a rural catchment area in the Netherlands. Since the water quality model simulates the observed concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients reasonably well, the most important processes during the observed flood hydrograph could be determined. These were erosion, exchange between dissolved phase and bed sediments and denitrification. It is concluded that the method is very useful for identifying the most significant model parameters and processes that are essential for water quality modelling. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Centrifuge modeling of buried continuous pipelines subjected to normal faulting

Seismic ground faulting is the greatest hazard for continuous buried pipelines.Over the years,researchers have attempted to understand pipeline behavior mostly via numerical modeling such as the finite element method.The lack of well-documented field case histories of pipeline failure from seismic ground faulting and the cost and complicated facilities needed for full-scale experimental simulation mean that a centrifuge-based method to determine the behavior of pipelines subjected to faulting is best to verify numerical approaches.This paper presents results from three centrifuge tests designed to investigate continuous buried steel pipeline behavior subjected to normal faulting.The experimental setup and procedure are described and the recorded axial and bending strains induced in a pipeline are presented and compared to those obtained via analytical methods.The influence of factors such as faulting offset,burial depth and pipe diameter on the axial and bending strains of pipes and on ground soil failure and pipeline deformation patterns are also investigated.Finally,the tensile rupture of a pipeline due to normal faulting is investigated.     

Distributed discharge and sediment concentration predictions in the sub‐humid Ethiopian highlands: the Debre Mawi watershed

Experimental research in the Ethiopian highlands found that saturation excess induced runoff and erosion are common in the sub‐humid conditions. Because most erosion simulation models applied in the highlands are based on infiltration excess, we, as an alternative, developed the Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED) model, which can simulate water and sediment fluxes in landscapes with saturation excess runoff. The PED model has previously only been tested at the outlet of a watershed and not for distributed runoff and sediment concentration within the watershed. In this study, we compare the distributed storm runoff and sediment concentration of the PED model against collected data in the 95‐ha Debre Mawi watershed and three of its nested sub‐watersheds for the 2010 and 2011 rainy seasons. In the PED model framework, the hydrology of the watershed is divided between infiltrating and runoff zones, with erosion only taking place from two surface runoff zones. Daily storm runoff and sediment concentration values, ranging from 0.5 to over 30 mm and from 0.1 to 35 g l^?1, respectively, were well simulated. The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for the daily storm runoff for outlet and sub‐watersheds ranged from 0.66 to 0.82, and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency for daily sediment concentrations were greater than 0.78. Furthermore, the model uses realistic fractional areas for surface and subsurface flow contributions, for example between saturated areas (15%), degraded areas (30%) and permeable areas (55%) at the main outlet, while close similarity was found for the remaining hydrology and erosion parameter values. One exception occurred for the distinctly greater transport limited parameter at the actively gullying lower part of the watershed. The results suggest that the model based on saturation excess provides a good representation of the observed spatially distributed runoff and sediment concentrations within a watershed by modelling the bottom lands (as opposed to the uplands) as the dominant contributor of the runoff and sediment load. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards more systematic perceptual model development: a case study using 3 Luxembourgish catchments

The synthesis of experimental understanding of catchment behaviour and its translation into qualitative perceptual models is an important objective of hydrological sciences. We explore this challenge by examining the cumulative understanding of the hydrology of three experimental catchments and how it evolves through the application of different investigation techniques. The case study considers the Huewelerbach, Weierbach and Wollefsbach headwater catchments of the Attert basin in Luxembourg. Subsurface investigations including bore holes and pits, analysis of soil samples and Electrical Resistivity Tomography measurements are presented and discussed. Streamflow and tracer data are used to gain further insights into the streamflow dynamics of the catchments, using end‐member mixing analysis and hydrograph separation based on dissolved silica and electrical conductivity. We show that the streamflow generating processes in all three catchments are controlled primarily by the subsolum and underlying bedrock. In the Huewelerbach, the permeable sandstone formation supports a stable groundwater component with little seasonality, which reaches the stream through a series of sources at the contact zone with the impermeable marls formation. In the Weierbach, the schist formation is relatively impermeable and supports a ‘fill and spill’‐type of flow mechanism; during wet conditions, it produces a delayed response dominated by pre‐event water. In the Wollefsbach, the impermeable marls formation is responsible for a saturation‐excess runoff generating process, producing a fast and highly seasonal response dominated by event water. The distinct streamflow generating processes of the three catchments are represented qualitatively using perceptual models. The perceptual models are in turn translated into quantitative conceptual models, which simulate the hydrological processes using networks of connected reservoirs and transfer functions. More generally, the paper illustrates the evolution of perceptual models based on experimental fieldwork data, the translation of perceptual models into conceptual models and the value of different types of data for processes understanding and model representation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial aggregation of time‐variant stream water ages in urbanizing catchments

We calibrated an integrated flow–tracer model to simulate spatially distributed isotope time series in stream water in a 7.9‐km² catchment with an urban area of 13%. The model used flux tracking to estimate the time‐varying age of stream water at the outlet and both urbanized (1.7 km²) and non‐urban (4.5 km²) sub‐catchments over a 2.5‐year period. This included extended wet and dry spells where precipitation equated to >10‐year return periods. Modelling indicated that stream water draining the most urbanized tributary was youngest with a mean transit time (MTT) of 171 days compared with 456 days in the non‐urban tributary. For the larger catchment, the MTT was 280 days. Here, the response of urban contributing areas dominated smaller and more moderate runoff events, but rural contributions dominated during the wettest periods, giving a bi‐modal distribution of water ages. Whilst the approach needs refining for sub‐daily time steps, it provides a basis for projecting the effects of urbanization on stream water transit times and their spatial aggregation. This offers a novel approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of urbanization on stream water quantity and quality, which can contribute to more sustainable management. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市河道黑臭底泥对挺水植物光合荧光特性的影响

城市河道黑臭现象日益严重,探讨常见湿地植物在黑臭底泥中的生长,有利于为河道修复物种选择提供科学依据.研究黑臭底泥对3种常见湿地植物——菖蒲(Acorus calamus)、美人蕉(Canna indica)及慈姑(Sagittaria sagittifolia)生长状况和叶片叶绿素荧光参数的影响.结果表明:菖蒲和美人蕉在第30~40 d时生物量增量明显降低,慈姑的生物量增量在整个实验中持续增加;通过比较3种湿地植物的荧光参数可知,菖蒲和美人蕉的光化学淬灭系数(q P)、相对光合电子传递速率(r ETR)值在第10 d时达到最大,分别为41.33μmol/(m2·s)和68.60μmol/(m2·s),后30 d一直下降;慈姑q P、r ETR值在第30 d时增加;在第40 d时,美人蕉q P值下降,非光化学淬灭系数(q N)值上升,叶片有较强的热耗散能力,而菖蒲的q P、q N值同时下降,黑臭底泥对菖蒲叶片的光合系统PSⅡ造成伤害.这说明黑臭底泥对菖蒲和美人蕉的光合能力产生较长期抑制,而慈姑可较快适应黑臭底泥的胁迫.因此利用湿地植物修复黑臭河道时,可优先选择慈姑,其次是美人蕉,最后是菖蒲.     

Removal of Ni(II) Using Cation Exchange Resins in Packed Bed Column: Prediction of Breakthrough Curves

Sorptive removal of Ni(II) from electroplating rinse wastewaters by cation exchange resin Dueolite C 20 was investigated at the temperature of 30°C under dynamic conditions in a packed bed. The effects of sorbent bed length 0.1–0.2 m, fixed flow rate 6 dm³ min^?1, and the initial rinse water concentration (C₀) 53.1 mg L^?1 on the sorption characteristics of Dueolite C 20 were investigated at an influent pH of 6.5. More than 94.5% of Ni(II) was removed in the column experiments. The column performance was improved with increasing bed height and decreasing the flow rate. The Thomas, Yoon–Nelson, Clark, and Wolborska models were applied to the experimental data to represent the breakthrough curves and determine the characteristic design parameters of the column. The sorption performance of the Ni(II) ions through columns could be well described by the Thomas, Yoon–Nelson, and Wolborska models at effluent‐to‐influent concentration ratios (C/C₀) >0.03 and <0.99. Among the all models, the Clark model showed the least average percentage time deviation. The sorptive capacity of electroplating rinse water using Ni(II) was found to be 45.98 mg g^?1.