Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections*

The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.     

RIVER PATTERNS AND SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL TRANSFORMATION MODES

1 INTRODUCTIONThe river pattCths and transfo~ion of the pattenes are of great significance for flood control andmanagement of navigation system. Vallous spatial and temporal modes have been reported in theprevious stUdies. These modes depend on certain controlling factors and occur with different frequencies.These factors are related to modem fluvial processes and ancient sedimentary consequences. T'hedifferent river patterns, depending on the factors, can be either observed in nature or…     

The pattern characteristics of the tendency variations of earth resistivity and its relation to earthquakes

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近场立交成因模式及强震预报

详细地讨论了强震孕育的近场立交成因模式,将其应用于强震的预报,并提出了强震预报的思路.作者还进一步讨论了横向断层对传播断层的止裂条件及深部断层的存在等问题.     

南北地震带强震迁移特征及其预测意义

在分析南北构造带构造体系的基础上，研究了该带强震的时空动态图象演化，结果表明，南北带的地震活动有如下特征：（１）经向迁移，其空间演化有步进型和步进折返型两种形态；（２）远程的快速响应；（３）诱发地震的链锁分布，该特征反映了强震间的相互耦合，对未来强震具有示踪意义，（４）时空可公度性，该结果对分析判定本带的地震趋势从而实现正确的预测具有实际意义。     

滇西地区综合环境因子预报地震的研究

本在原有单项预报指标的基础上,研究西地区（Ｎ２３°４８′－２６°２０′;Ｅ９７°００′－９９°３０′）Ｍ≥５．０级的地震。     

Spatio-temporal point pattern analysis on Wenchuan strong earthquake

For exploring the aftershock occurrence process of the 2008 Wenchuan strong earthquake, the spatio-temporal point pattern analysis method is employed to study the sequences of aftershocks with magnitude M≥4.0, M≥4.5, and M≥5.0. It is found that these data exhibit the spatio-temporal clustering on a certain distance scale and on a certain time scale. In particular, the space-time interaction obviously strengthens when the distance is less than 60 km and the time is less than 260 h for the first two aftershoc...     

祁连—川滇复合菱形块体周边主要活动断裂带断层形变特征与机理

根据布设在祁连—川滇复合菱形块体周边主要活动断裂带上形变场地观测资料并结合大面积水准测量成果, 分析了复合菱形块体的活动规律, 并进行了动力学机制的讨论。     

The expert system for earthquake prediction (I)—the overall design and main structure

The Expert System For Earthquake Prediction (ESEP) is summarized in this paper. ESEP embraces three subsystems: long-middle term prediction system, annual prediction system and middle-short term prediction system. Each of the subsystems is composed of seven modules: the controlling module, the data base module, the expert knowledge base module, the method base module, the fact preparation module, the reasoning and decision-making module and the plotting and displaying module. The reasoning model ESEP/R and the knowledge expression model ESEP/K are set up in the ESEP, and new evidence combinations, CON (confine), W (weigh), and SYN (synthesize), have been proposed. The distinctive features of the ESEP are: (1) systemized; (2) several experts’ knowledge can be synthesized; (3) a large amount of data and experts’ experience is embraced; (4) four reasoning models and the synthetic decision-making technic are adopted; (5) several software environments are used; (6) modularization; and (7) possessing the friendly user interfaces. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 1–8, 1992.     

基于ALOS数据的乌鲁木齐市绿地景观格局研究

以乌鲁木齐市2009年的ALOS卫星影像为研究数据,在地理信息系统(GIS)及遥感(RS)技术的支持下,提取绿地信息,建立乌鲁木齐市区绿地景观的空间数据库,应用景观生态学的理论和研究方法,选取景观分维数、破碎度、分离度等景观指数来定量分析乌鲁木齐市区的绿地景观格局。结果表明,整个研究区内的绿地类型以公园绿地和单位附属绿地为主,市区绿地景观多样性较低,各类型绿地景观所占比例不均匀,公共绿地数量少,趋于团聚分布,形成许多绿化服务盲区;各类型绿地景观分维数较高,形状较不规则;单位附属绿地和居住绿地的破碎度较高,因为它们受人类的影响较大、形状相对多样、不规则。