楮岛沙滩不同时间尺度变化特征与波能流密度相关性探讨

在波浪和水流的作用下,泥沙在不同时间尺度下的运动会引起沙滩的冲淤演变,对海岸资源有重要的影响。因此,了解沙滩季节性演变规律,并采取针对性的防护措施,是近岸沙滩亟须解决的问题。目前,现场观测是研究沙滩剖面冲淤演变的重要方法,通过沉积物组成、岸滩坡度及波浪动力的时空变化,了解沙滩剖面的变化特性,对于沙滩管理和海岸保护具有十分重要的意义。基于2017年9月—2019年11月在荣成楮岛南岸沙滩每个月采集一次的剖面数据,以及波浪动力数据,分别探究了沙滩在不同时间尺度下的变化特征,并对沙滩变化特征与波浪动力因素的相关性进行了探讨。研究发现：楮岛南岸沙滩形态变化具有较强的季节性特征,春季沙滩比较稳定;夏季沙滩受台风影响侵蚀严重,但在风暴过后的短时间内,沙滩泥沙恢复较快;冬季沙滩恢复速度逐渐减缓并趋于稳定。在夏季和冬季期间,波能流密度的向岸分量对楮岛南沙滩的演变产生重要作用,而且波能流密度向岸分量的均值（选取数据采集前15 d的波浪条件参与计算）与沙滩体积的相关性最好,并给出了两者的线性拟合公式。     

略谈气候异变对中国上古农业转型的影响

结合考古资料,对气候异变与中国上古农业转型的关系进行了论述,认为在全新世时期中国发生过几次较大的降温事件,气候异变一方面给原始农业文化造成严重的损害,另一方面又激发了人们应对这种挑战的勇气和智慧,成为原始农业文化进化和转型的契机;中国上古农业发展中的两次重大转型——农业"边缘"地区游牧经济的形成和黄河中下游地区"沟洫农业"的出现,均与气候异变有关;人类科学地应对和适应气候异变,使中华文明的进程出现了新格局。历史经验表明,自然环境虽然能够对历史过程产生重大影响,但关键是人类如何去应对,人类自身才是历史发展更为重要的决定性因素。     

Evaluating changes in ecological land and effect of protecting important ecological spaces in China

It is important to quantitatively analyze the effects of protection of important eco-logical spaces in China to ensure national ecological security.By considering changes in the ecological land,this study examines the effects of protecting three types of important natural ecological spaces in China from 1980 to 2018.Moreover,considering important ecological spaces and their surroundings yields differences in the effects of protection between internal and external spaces,where this can provide a scientific basis for the categorization and zoning of China's land.The results show the following:(1)In 2018,the ratio of ecological land to important natural ecological spaces accounted for 92.64％.This land had a good ecological background that reflects the developmental orientation of important ecological spaces.(2)From 1980 to 2018,the area of ecological land in important ecological spaces shrank but the rate of reduction was lower than the national average,which shows the positive effect of regulating construction in natural ecological spaces.The restorative effects of ecological projects to convert farmland into forests and grasslands have been prominent.The expanded ecological land is mainly distributed in areas where such projects have been implemented,and the reduced area is concentrated in grain-producing areas of the Northeast China Plain and agricultural oases of Xinjiang.In the future,the government should focus on strength-ening the management and control of these areas.(3)The area ratio of ecological land was the highest in national nature reserves.The rate of reduction in its area was the lowest and the trend of reduction was the smallest in national nature reserves,which reflects differences in the status of ecological protection among different spaces.(4)The ratio of ecological land to important ecological spaces was higher than that in the surrounding external space,and the rate of reduction in it was lower.Thus,the effects of internal and external protection had clear differences in terms of gradient.     

21世纪西北太平洋台风变化预估

对近年多个气候模式考虑不同的人类排放情景作了总结,并对21世纪西北太平洋台风变化作了预估。研究表明,集成多个气候模式考虑人类排放情景,预估到21世纪后期,西北太平洋年总编号台风数可能减少,但强台风数及其降水和风速可能增强。需要强调的是,台风的长期预估是极其困难的,存在极大的不确定性,有待作更深入的研究。     

帕米尔弧形构造带东北缘晚新生代构造活动的沉积与重矿物变化响应

帕米尔弧形构造带东北缘晚新生代沉积特征的研究对于理解帕米尔构造带弧形扩展机制具有重要意义.本文通过对帕米尔弧形构造带东北缘的晚新生代沉积地层的沉积特征对比研究和重矿物采样与组份分析,建立了帕米尔弧形构造带东北缘地区的晚新生代沉积联合柱状对比图和重矿物组份变化曲线.研究结果表明,晚新生代沉积与重矿物变化主要记录了帕米尔弧...     

湘西北喀斯特山区耕地变化与经济发展的相关性——以张家界市永定区为例

根据张家界市永定区1989~2005年耕地资源及人均GDP的统计资料,分析了永定区耕地面积与经济发展的动态变化过程,建立了耕地减少量与人均GDP数据的定量相关模型,从而得出了该地区耕地面积减少与经济发展间的关系规律。研究结果表明,永定区耕地面积减少量最初随着人均GDP的增加而增加,当越过一个阈值后(2002年),就开始随着人均GDP的增长而降低。虽然这样的演化规律受当地的自然条件及其他相关因素的影响而有所波动,出现阶段性变化,但基本上仍吻合库兹尼茨曲线的一般特征。结合当前实际,对湘西北喀斯特地区如何实现经济增长与耕地保护的协调发展提出了相应的措施和建议。     

复合荒漠化及其时空变化研究——以新疆艾比湖地区为例

以新疆艾比湖地区为研究区,通过对现有荒漠化监测指标体系的归纳分析,界定了复合荒漠化概念.利用遥感影像数据提取研究区各类荒漠化的现状与动态变化信息.研究结果表明:单一主导因子荒漠化类型面积占荒漠化土地总面积的82.29%,复合荒漠化面积占17.71%.2002～2005年,艾比湖湖面面积缩小了322.507 3 km2,相应的总体土地荒漠化面积增加了7.18%,复合荒漠化面积增加了133%.土地荒漠化的过程同时也发生了变化,风蚀、复合荒漠化增加而土地盐渍化减少,荒漠化程度加重,复合荒漠化类型增加并向其他土地类型扩展.     

广东汕尾近40年以来气温的变化特征

根据汕尾地区汕尾、海丰、陆丰站1960—1999年的气温序列资料,采用线性趋势、累积距平、小波分析以及Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法对汕尾地区气温变化特征进行了分析,结果表明：40年来汕尾地区存在暖-冷-暖3个气候变化阶段。年季平均气温均呈上升趋势,尤其在1980年代中期以后升温更为明显;四季升温率以冬季最为显著。在不同冷、暖阶段,冷、暖年（季）出现的年数差异很大,其中异常冷年均出现在1980年前,异常暖年均出现在1990年后。年平均最高气温与最低气温同年平均气温一样均呈升高趋势。但不同站点的气温变化仍有一定差异。年平均气温汕尾站存在2—3a、6—7a、准12a周期,海丰站存在准7a与14—16a周期,陆丰存在准1．5a、准2．5a、5—7a、准16a周期,MK检验发现汕尾平均气温在1998年发生突变,其他两站的突变发生在1997年。     

COUPLING PATTERNS OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION AT MIDDLE & LOWER LATITUDES AND THEIR INTERDECADAL OSCILLATION

Diagnostic studies have been done of the seasonal and interdecadal variations of the coupling patterns for the air-sea interactions in the northern Pacific region, by using 500-hPa geopotential height field of the Northern Hemisphere and monthly mean SST field of northern Pacific Ocean (1951 ～ 1995) and with the aid of the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique. The results show that: (1) The distribution patterns of SVD, which link with the El Nifo (or La Nina) events, are important in the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean while the atmosphere, coupling with it, varies like the PNA teleconnection does. The coupling of airsea interactions is the highest in the winter (January), specifically linking the El Nino event with the PNA pattern in the geopotential height field. Of the four seasons, summer has the poorest coupling when the 500-hPa geopotential height field corresponding to the La Nina event displays patterns similar to the East Asian-Pacific one (PJ). The spring and autumn are both transitional and the coupling is less tight in the autumn than in the spring. (2) Significant changes have taken place around 1976 in the pattern of air-sea coupling, with the year's winter having intensified PNA pattern of 500-hPa winter geopotential height field, deepened Aleutian low that moves southeast and the summer following it having outstanding PJ pattern of 500-hPa geopotential height field.which is not so before 1976.     

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Shoreline Wetlands

Great Lakes shoreline wetlands are adapted to a variable water supply. They require the disturbance of water level fluctuations to maintain their productivity. However, the magnitude and rate of climate change could alter the hydrology of the Great Lakes and affect wetland ecosystems. Wetlands would have to adjust to a new pattern of water level fluctuations; the timing, duration, and range of these fluctuations are critical to the wetland ecosystem response. Two "what if" scenarios: (1) an increased frequency and duration of low water levels and (2) a changed temporal distribution and amplitude of seasonal water levels were developed to assess the sensitivity of shoreline wetlands to climate change. Wetland functions and values such as wildlife, waterfowl and fish habitat, water quality, areal extent, and vegetation diversity are affected by these scenarios. Key wetlands are at risk, particularly those that are impeded from adapting to the new water level conditions by man-made structures or geomorphic conditions. Wetland remediation, protection and enhancement policies and programs must consider climate change as an additional stressor of wetlands.