黄河中下游水沙变化趋势

本文论述由于黄河上游清水区水资源的优先开发,中上游地区工农业用水的增长,而黄河中游地区的水土保持和支流治理的减沙作用不甚明显,龙羊峡水库投入运用后,汛期进入河口镇的水量大幅度减少,使汛期进入黄河下游的基流减小含沙量增加,高含沙洪水出现的机会增多.面临水少沙多的不利情况,应加强宽浅河道的改造及利用窄深河道输送高含沙水流的研究.     

Coastal morphodynamics and Chenier-Plain evolution in southwestern Louisiana, USA: A geomorphic model

Using 28 topographic profiles, air-photo interpretation, and historical shoreline-change data, coastal processes were evaluated along the Chenier Plain to explain the occurrence, distribution, and geomorphic hierarchy of primary landforms, and existing hypotheses regarding Chenier-Plain evolution were reconsidered. The Chenier Plain of SW Louisiana, classified as a low-profile, microtidal, storm-dominated coast, is located west and downdrift of the Mississippi River deltaic plain. This Late-Holocene, marginal-deltaic environment is 200 km long and up to 30 km wide, and is composed primarily of mud deposits capped by marsh interspersed with thin sand- and shell-rich ridges (“cheniers”) that have elevations of up to 4 m.In this study, the term “ridge” is used as a morphologic term for a narrow, linear or curvilinear topographic high that consists of sand and shelly material accumulated by waves and other physical coastal processes. Thus, most ridges in the Chenier Plain represent relict open-Gulf shorelines. On the basis of past movement trends of individual shorelines, ridges may be further classified as transgressive, regressive, or laterally accreted. Geomorphic zones that contain two or more regressive, transgressive, or laterally accreted ridges are termed complexes. Consequently, we further refine the Chenier-Plain definition by Otvos and Price [Otvos, E.G. and Price, W.A., 1979. Problems of chenier genesis and terminology—an overview. Marine Geology, 31: 251–263] and define Chenier Plain as containing at least two or more chenier complexes. Based on these definitions, a geomorphic hierarchy of landforms was refined relative to dominant process for the Louisiana Chenier Plain. The Chenier Plain is defined as a first-order feature (5000 km²) composed of three second-order features (30 to 300 km²): chenier complex, beach-ridge complex, and spit complex. Individual ridges of each complex type were further separated into third-order features: chenier, beach ridge, and spit.To understand the long-term evolution of a coastal depositional system, primary process–response mechanisms and patterns found along the modern Chenier-Plain coast were first identified, especially tidal-inlet processes associated with the Sabine, Calcasieu, and Mermentau Rivers. Tidal prism (Ω) and quantity of littoral transport (M_total) are the most important factors controlling inlet stability. Greater discharge and/or tidal prism increase the ability of river and estuarine systems to interrupt longshore sediment transport, maintain and naturally stabilize tidal entrances, and promote updrift deposition. Thus, prior to human modification and stabilization efforts, the Mermentau River entrance would be classified as wave-dominated, Sabine Pass as tide-dominated, and Calcasieu Pass as tide-dominated to occasionally mixed.Hoyt [Hoyt, J.H., 1969. Chenier versus barrier, genetic and stratigraphic distinction. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull., 53: 299–306] presented the first detailed depositional model for chenier genesis and mudflat progradation, which he attributed to changes in Mississippi River flow direction (i.e., delta switching) caused by upstream channel avulsion. However, Hoyt's model oversimplifies Chenier-Plain evolution because it omits ridges created by other means. Thus, the geologic evolution of the Chenier Plain is more complicated than channel avulsions of the Mississippi River, and it involved not only chenier ridges (i.e., transgressive), but also ridges that are genetically tied to regression (beach ridges) and lateral accretion (recurved spits).A six-stage geomorphic process-response model was developed to describe Chenier-Plain evolution primarily as a function of: (i) the balance between sediment supply and energy dissipation associated with Mississippi River channel avulsions, (ii) local sediment reworking and lateral transport, (iii) tidal-entrance dynamics, and (iv) possibly higher-than-present stands of Holocene sea level. Consequently, the geneses of three different ridge types (transgressive, regressive, and laterally accreted) typically occur contemporaneously along the same shoreline at different locations.     

Modelling of ground deformation and gravity fields using finite element method: an application to Etna volcano

Elastic finite element models are applied to investigate the effects of topography and medium heterogeneities on the surface deformation and the gravity field produced by volcanic pressure sources. Changes in the gravity field cannot be interpreted only in terms of gain of mass disregarding the ground deformation of the rocks surrounding the source. Contributions to gravity changes depend also on surface and subsurface mass redistribution driven by dilation of the volcanic source. Both ground deformation and gravity changes were firstly evaluated by solving a coupled axisymmetric problem to estimate the effects of topography and medium heterogeneities. Numerical results show significant discrepancies in the ground deformation and gravity field compared to those predicted by analytical solutions, which disregard topography, elastic heterogeneities and density subsurface structures. With this in mind, we reviewed the expected gravity changes accompanying the 1993–1997 inflation phase on Mt Etna by setting up a fully 3-D finite element model in which we used the real topography, to include the geometry, and seismic tomography, to infer the crustal heterogeneities. The inflation phase was clearly detected by different geodetic techniques (EDM, GPS, SAR and levelling data) that showed a uniform expansion of the overall volcano edifice. When the gravity data are integrated with ground deformation data and a coupled FEM modelling was solved, a mass intrusion could have occurred at depth to justify both ground deformation and gravity observations.     

Monitoring Changes of Ice Streams Using Time Series of Satellite-Altimetry-Based Digital Terrain Models

The Antarctic Ice Sheet plays a major role in the global system, and the large ice streams discharging into the circumpolar sea represent its gateways to the world's oceans. Satellite radar altimeter data provide an opportunity for mapping surface elevation at kilometer-resolution with meter-accuracy. Geostatistical methods have been developed for the analysis of these data. Applications to Seasat data and data from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission indicate that the grounding line of Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf, the largest ice stream in East Antarctica, has advanced 10–12 km between 1978 and 1987–89. The objectives of this paper are to explore possibilities and limitations of satellite-altimetry-based mapping to capture changes for shorter time windows and for smaller areas, and to investigate some methodological aspects of the data analysis. We establish that one season of radar altimeter data is sufficient for constructing a map. This allows study of interannual variation and is the key for a time-series analysis approach to study changes in ice streams. Maps of the lower Lambert Glacier and the entire Amery Ice Shelf are presented for austral winters 1978, 1987, 1988, and 1989. As a first step toward understanding the dynamics of the ice-stream/ice-shelf system, elevation changes are calculated for grounded ice, the grounding zone, and floating ice. In the absence of (sufficient) surface gravity control for the Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf area, altimetry-based maps may facilitate improvement of geoid models as they provide constraints on the terrain correction in the inverse gravimetric problem.     

Simulating the impacts of climate variation and land-cover changes on basin hydrology: A case study of the Suomo basin

1 Motivation In the summer of 1998, areas along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River suffered a damag- ing flood. Causes of the flooding became a hot topic on mass media after the disaster. Deforestation on the upstream areas was widely blamed as the major reason for the flooding. Some scientists, however, disproved the point of view. They believed that the impact of land use and land cover changes (LUCC) was over- stated[1]. Actually, the controversy over forest hydrol- ogy h…     

黄旗海介形类及其壳体稳定同位素环境记录

利用黄旗海冬季坚固的冰封面作为稳固的司钻平台 ,在湖泊中央成功地获取了高质量的湖底连续沉积岩芯。对其中长 1 1m的HQH4岩芯中的介形类化石进行了属种古生态和壳体稳定同位素研究。结果显示 ,在 1 0 2 0 0aB .P .前后黄旗海进入了稳定的湖泊阶段。在此之前 ,介形类的丰度极低。介形类的最大丰度出现在 1 0 2 0 0 -680 0aB .P .,反映了早全新世期间黄旗海较高的生物生产率。在此期间 ,介壳的δ18O值的变化范围较大 ,反映了黄旗海水体氧同位素组成在全新世早期的变幅较大。从 680 0aB .P .起 ,介形类的丰度突然大幅度降低 ,介壳δ18O值随后降低 ,反映了中全新世黄旗海湖水变深 ,湖底还原性显著增强。从 3 2 0 0aB .P .起 ,湖泊水位显著下降 ,湖底氧化条件明显增强 ,介形类的丰度继续下降 ,直到大约 1 3 0 0aB .P .才出现回升     

Static stress changes and fault interaction during the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence

We study the static stress changes caused by moderatemagnitude earthquakes that occurred in Umbria-Marcheduring a seismic sequence which started on September3, 1997, with a M_L 4.7 foreshock and consisted ofeight earthquakes whose magnitudes range between 5.0and 6.0. The earthquakes occurred on normal faultsstriking in the Apennine direction and dipping at lowangles towards the SW. The goal is to verify if stresschanges induced by each mainshock can explain theoccurrence of subsequent events. Our results show thatthe foreshock slightly increased the Coulomb stress onthe first mainshock fault plane. The distribution ofseismicity that followed the foreshock is clustered inthe area of Coulomb stress increase comprised betweenthe two faults which ruptured in opposite directionsduring the two largest shocks of September 26. Thelocations and the geometry of the three largestearthquakes agree well with the pattern of Coulombstress changes suggesting elastic interaction betweenthese faults. However, we were not able to model thewhole sequence of M_L 5.0 events in terms ofCoulomb stress changes. The difficulties are due tothe similarity of fault plane solutions for eventslocated very close to each other and in the hangingwall of the mainshock rupture planes. Our results showthat normal stress changes agree better with thespatial pattern of the whole sequence of moderatemagnitude events. If previous ruptures unclamp thefault planes of subsequent earthquakes, fluid flow canplay a dominant role in promoting earthquakes duringthe seismic sequence.     

西江流域硝酸盐氮输出规律研究

以西江流域为研究对象,研究流域出口断面硝酸盐氮浓度时间变化规律,采用非平稳时间序列分析方法,分析流域系统行为对氮输出的影响,结果发现:西江硝酸盐氮浓度存在线性增加的确定性趋势,其季节增加量最大值出现在每年5月,与降雨季节增加量最大值时间基本一致,表明降雨造成的地表冲刷、土壤侵蚀以及5月施加的氮肥量大,是造成流域硝酸盐氮输出增大的主要原因。对西江高要断面输出的硝酸盐氮浓度建立了非平稳自回归-滑动平均混合模型,即ARIMA(1,0,1)(2,1,1)12模型,模型通过了高要站硝酸盐氮浓度实测数据的验证,利用模型,预测了西江硝酸盐氮输出的时间变化规律。     

Land cover changes in the rural-urban interaction of Xi＇an region using Landsat TM/ETM data

Landsat ETM/TM data and an artificial neural network （ANN） were applied to analyse the expansion of the city of Xi＇an and land use/cover change of its surrounding area between 2000 and 2003. Supervised classification and normalized difference barren index （NDBI） were used respectively to retrieve its urban boundary. Results showed that the urban area increased by an annual rate of 12.3%, with area expansion from 253.37 km^2 in 2000 to 358.60 km^2 in 2003. Large areas of farmland in the north and southwest were converted into urban construction land. The land use/cover changes of Xi＇an were mainly caused by fast development of urban economy, population immigration from countryside, great development of infrastructure such as transportation, and huge demands for urban market. In addition, affected by the government policy of “returning farmland to woodland”, some farmland was converted into economic woodland, such as Chinese goosebeerv garden, vineyard etc.     

气候变化的天文理论

地球气候变化在１０～１００ｋａ（千年）的时间尺度上表现出规则的周期性,它们主要受轨道日射变化控制,并能被很精确地计算到几百万年。根据Ｍｉｌａｎｋｏｖｉｔｃｈ创立的天文理论,轨道变化是通过改变日射的季节分布和纬度分布来影响气候的。黄赤夹角４１ｋａ的周期改变日射的纬度分布,而气候岁差以１９ｋａ和２３ｋａ的两个周期改变日射的季节分布。作为对轨道日射变化的响应,全球气候在１０～１００ｋａ的时间尺度上按照气