Simulating the impacts of climate variation and land-cover changes on basin hydrology: A case study of the Suomo basin

1 Motivation In the summer of 1998, areas along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River suffered a damag- ing flood. Causes of the flooding became a hot topic on mass media after the disaster. Deforestation on the upstream areas was widely blamed as the major reason for the flooding. Some scientists, however, disproved the point of view. They believed that the impact of land use and land cover changes (LUCC) was over- stated[1]. Actually, the controversy over forest hydrol- ogy h…     

黄旗海介形类及其壳体稳定同位素环境记录

利用黄旗海冬季坚固的冰封面作为稳固的司钻平台 ,在湖泊中央成功地获取了高质量的湖底连续沉积岩芯。对其中长 1 1m的HQH4岩芯中的介形类化石进行了属种古生态和壳体稳定同位素研究。结果显示 ,在 1 0 2 0 0aB .P .前后黄旗海进入了稳定的湖泊阶段。在此之前 ,介形类的丰度极低。介形类的最大丰度出现在 1 0 2 0 0 -680 0aB .P .,反映了早全新世期间黄旗海较高的生物生产率。在此期间 ,介壳的δ18O值的变化范围较大 ,反映了黄旗海水体氧同位素组成在全新世早期的变幅较大。从 680 0aB .P .起 ,介形类的丰度突然大幅度降低 ,介壳δ18O值随后降低 ,反映了中全新世黄旗海湖水变深 ,湖底还原性显著增强。从 3 2 0 0aB .P .起 ,湖泊水位显著下降 ,湖底氧化条件明显增强 ,介形类的丰度继续下降 ,直到大约 1 3 0 0aB .P .才出现回升     

Static stress changes and fault interaction during the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence

We study the static stress changes caused by moderatemagnitude earthquakes that occurred in Umbria-Marcheduring a seismic sequence which started on September3, 1997, with a M_L 4.7 foreshock and consisted ofeight earthquakes whose magnitudes range between 5.0and 6.0. The earthquakes occurred on normal faultsstriking in the Apennine direction and dipping at lowangles towards the SW. The goal is to verify if stresschanges induced by each mainshock can explain theoccurrence of subsequent events. Our results show thatthe foreshock slightly increased the Coulomb stress onthe first mainshock fault plane. The distribution ofseismicity that followed the foreshock is clustered inthe area of Coulomb stress increase comprised betweenthe two faults which ruptured in opposite directionsduring the two largest shocks of September 26. Thelocations and the geometry of the three largestearthquakes agree well with the pattern of Coulombstress changes suggesting elastic interaction betweenthese faults. However, we were not able to model thewhole sequence of M_L 5.0 events in terms ofCoulomb stress changes. The difficulties are due tothe similarity of fault plane solutions for eventslocated very close to each other and in the hangingwall of the mainshock rupture planes. Our results showthat normal stress changes agree better with thespatial pattern of the whole sequence of moderatemagnitude events. If previous ruptures unclamp thefault planes of subsequent earthquakes, fluid flow canplay a dominant role in promoting earthquakes duringthe seismic sequence.     

西江流域硝酸盐氮输出规律研究

以西江流域为研究对象,研究流域出口断面硝酸盐氮浓度时间变化规律,采用非平稳时间序列分析方法,分析流域系统行为对氮输出的影响,结果发现:西江硝酸盐氮浓度存在线性增加的确定性趋势,其季节增加量最大值出现在每年5月,与降雨季节增加量最大值时间基本一致,表明降雨造成的地表冲刷、土壤侵蚀以及5月施加的氮肥量大,是造成流域硝酸盐氮输出增大的主要原因。对西江高要断面输出的硝酸盐氮浓度建立了非平稳自回归-滑动平均混合模型,即ARIMA(1,0,1)(2,1,1)12模型,模型通过了高要站硝酸盐氮浓度实测数据的验证,利用模型,预测了西江硝酸盐氮输出的时间变化规律。     

Land cover changes in the rural-urban interaction of Xi＇an region using Landsat TM/ETM data

Landsat ETM/TM data and an artificial neural network （ANN） were applied to analyse the expansion of the city of Xi＇an and land use/cover change of its surrounding area between 2000 and 2003. Supervised classification and normalized difference barren index （NDBI） were used respectively to retrieve its urban boundary. Results showed that the urban area increased by an annual rate of 12.3%, with area expansion from 253.37 km^2 in 2000 to 358.60 km^2 in 2003. Large areas of farmland in the north and southwest were converted into urban construction land. The land use/cover changes of Xi＇an were mainly caused by fast development of urban economy, population immigration from countryside, great development of infrastructure such as transportation, and huge demands for urban market. In addition, affected by the government policy of “returning farmland to woodland”, some farmland was converted into economic woodland, such as Chinese goosebeerv garden, vineyard etc.     

气候变化的天文理论

地球气候变化在１０～１００ｋａ（千年）的时间尺度上表现出规则的周期性,它们主要受轨道日射变化控制,并能被很精确地计算到几百万年。根据Ｍｉｌａｎｋｏｖｉｔｃｈ创立的天文理论,轨道变化是通过改变日射的季节分布和纬度分布来影响气候的。黄赤夹角４１ｋａ的周期改变日射的纬度分布,而气候岁差以１９ｋａ和２３ｋａ的两个周期改变日射的季节分布。作为对轨道日射变化的响应,全球气候在１０～１００ｋａ的时间尺度上按照气     

亚热带岩溶平原区土壤CO2系统对地下水面升降的响应──活塞效应一例

地下水面是土壤生态系统内部的一个重要界面,使土壤CO²系统形成固有的垂直分 带性及分带结构。地下水面的季节性升降能够引起土壤CO²系统的强烈响应。首先使土壤空 气发生机械性整体对流。同时,还通过引发一系列其它物理、化学和生物变化,激发产生一个 局部扩散层,从而改变CO²剖面垂直分带结构。粘性土壤、土质不均和土壤液相部分有较大碳 酸盐容量是产生局部扩散层的主要内在原因。在中国南方岩溶平原区高台型地下水动态条件 下,地下水面季节性升降的活塞效应和气温年周期变化叠加,使土壤CO²剖面形态变化形成有 规律的序列演化旋回。这一规律可以帮助对土壤CO²进行中长期预测。     

中国典型山地温冰川水化学空间分布特征与近期冰川动态

从我国玉龙雪玉典型温水王白水１号冰川不同区段表面融水,新近积雪和冰川初给河水采样分析结果表明,雪线以下降水中的稳定同位素的离子含量比雪线以下为高,低海拔河水比高海拨融水的氧同浓度为低,可能在来源上存在着差异,这种分布特征说明本温冰川区局部大气环流情况高度而不同,有可能存在季气候区所特有的“降水量效应”或“季节性效应”。冰川不同水体内离子浓度变化说明,冰川融水与地壳表面接触时间越久,其中的可融性离了     

全新世以来南疆地区气候环境演变与人类活动的关系

根据南疆地区不同沉积相的沉积记录的研究 ,初步建立了南疆地区 1 2 ka BP以来气候环境演化序列。研究揭示 ,此期间南疆地区气候与环境的演变具有较为显著的西风型特征 ,共经历了 5次相对暖干和 4次相对冷湿时期。特别是在全新世大暖期中出现于 7.0～ 5.0 ka BP期间相对暖湿的气候环境特征可能与西南季风势力的增强有关 ,而且还揭示了此地区暖干化趋势存在阶梯式增强的特征 ,研究还发现 ,近 4ka BP以来 ,气候环境的变化与一些人文事件如古城的废弃、丝绸之路的兴衰和人地关系类型的演化存在着一定的关系。     

五台山旅游气候及其舒适度评价

气候是一个地区旅游发展的基本因子。本文分析了五台山气候状况和气象景观 ,计算了各月舒适度指数、寒冷指数和平均着衣指数 ,得出了人体气候舒适度的时间分布。根据舒适度指数、寒冷指数和穿衣指数对各月旅游气候适宜性进行分析评价 ,并提出穿衣建议 ,从而为五台山旅游发展规划和游客选择旅游时间提供了科学的依据