A hybrid Bayesian back‐propagation neural network approach to multivariate modelling

There is growing interest in the use of back‐propagation neural networks to model non‐linear multivariate problems in geotehnical engineering. To overcome the shortcomings of the conventional back‐propagation neural network, such as overfitting, where the neural network learns the spurious details and noise in the training examples, a hybrid back‐propagation algorithm has been developed. The method utilizes the genetic algorithms search technique and the Bayesian neural network methodology. The genetic algorithms enhance the stochastic search to locate the global minima for the neural network model. The Bayesian inference procedures essentially provide better generalization and a statistical approach to deal with data uncertainty in comparison with the conventional back‐propagation. The uncertainty of data can be indicated using error bars. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the convergence and generalization capabilities of this hybrid algorithm. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江口深水航道30年空间特征变化研究

根据1973-2003年6幅长江口海图资料,建立不同时期长江口深水航道水下数字高程模型, 对航道治理前后30 a的冲淤状况、纵剖面水深变化以及空间模拟等进行研究. 结果表明,30 a来深水航道冲淤交替出现,总变化趋势是冲刷.航道冲淤除与 水动力条件有关外,与治理工程也有密切联系.长江口深水航道治理一期工程结束后,水深明显加深,坡度比变大,主航道呈现平顺的“U”形河道景观.     

荒漠戈壁下垫面表面动量和感热湍流通量参数化研究

用合理筛选以后的野外观测资料，研究了荒漠戈壁地表湍流通量参数化的问题。首先，分析了Monin-obukhov相似函数的特征，并拟台出了其经验公式。结果表明，风速和温度相似性函数随稳定度参数的变化曲线与典型经验曲线差异较小，并且在经验曲线分布范围以内，但中性时的值有所不同。同时，还用该资料给出了动量和标量粗糙度(感热粗糙度)长度的平均值及其标量粗糙度随摩擦速度的变化关系。发现标量粗糙度的平均值大约比动量粗糙度的小一个量级，并且随摩擦速度的增大而减小，但明显比其理论预测值要大。     

基于AHP和BP神经网络的深部地热水可持续开发能力评价

采用资料完整性、开采潜力、回灌量、平均水压下降速率、地面沉降速率、水温、水质、地热井布局8项指标构建天津地热可持续开发能力评价指标体系;运用层次分析法确定了各项指标的权重,建立起评价因素集和评语集,给出了归一化数值;建立了天津地热可持续开发能力的BP神经网络模型,以层次分析法得出的结果作为样本,对BP网络进行了训练和测试,实例评价结果表明了AHP和BP神经网络方法的可行性,为地热资源的可持续开发能力评价提供了一种新的评价方法。     

Mohr-Coulomb准则下基于滑动面深度的边坡参数反分析方法

利用上限定理与强度折减法,提出了一种新的边坡反分析方法。该方法基于边坡的滑动面形状,不需要位移、应力等监测数据。分析边坡的临界滑动面位置与强度参数的关系,可以发现,当边坡的几何形状、土体重度以及孔隙水压力分布确定,则临界滑动面的形状只与土体黏聚力c、内摩擦角φ的关系式c/tanφ有关,并在此基础上引入边坡的无量纲系数c,λcφ。利用极限分析上限定理与强度折减法,得到了边坡临界滑动面方程,提出了其深度的计算公式,建立了边坡c,λcφ值与滑动面深度的关系。通过已有边坡的反分析实例,验证了方法的正确性和有效性。     

上游建库引水对健跳港冲淤影响的经验预测

从分析健跳港水文和泥沙特性出发,探讨了健跳港水动力和河床演变的基本特征,结果表明,尽管健跳港内落潮最大流速大于涨潮最大流速,但该港泥沙净输沙方向还是朝向港内;流域径流对健跳港海床稳定起着重要作用,维护健跳港冲淤平衡的主要动力来自洪水期的径流.利用水沙关系和河相关系模型预测了健跳港上游引水后对该港海床淤积的影响.     

埕岛海域水深地形特征及冲淤规律探讨

介绍了埕岛海域水深及地形特征,简述了埕岛海域经历的快速冲刷、缓慢冲刷及冲淤调整的3个阶段,探讨了位于局部高部位、平坦海底及过渡地带3种井场的冲淤规律.     

Chemical and Isotopic Characteristics of the Kuroko‐Forming Volcanism

The Miocene northeast Honshu magmatic arc, Japan, formed at a terrestrial continental margin via a stage of spreading in a back‐arc basin (23–17 Ma) followed by multiple stages of submarine rifting (19–13 Ma). The Kuroko deposits formed during this period, with most forming during the youngest rifting stage. The mode of magma eruption changed from submarine basalt lava flows during back‐arc basin spreading to submarine bimodal basalt lava flows and abundant rhyolitic effusive rocks during the rifting stage. The basalts produced during the stage of back‐arc basin spreading are geochemically similar to mid‐ocean ridge basalt, with a depleted Sr–Nd mantle source, whereas those produced during the rifting stage possess arc signatures with an enriched mantle source. The Nb/Zr ratios of the volcanic rocks show an increase over time, indicating a temporal increase in the fertility of the source. The Nb/Zr ratios are similar in basalts and rhyolites from a given rift zone, whereas the Nd isotopic compositions of the rhyolites are less radiogenic than those of the basalts. These data suggest that the rhyolites were derived from a basaltic magma via crystal fractionation and crustal assimilation. The rhyolites associated with the Kuroko deposits are aphyric and have higher concentrations of incompatible elements than do post‐Kuroko quartz‐phyric rhyolites. These observations suggest that the aphyric rhyolite magma was derived from a relatively deep magma chamber with strong fractional crystallization. Almost all of the Kuroko deposits formed in close temporal relation to the aphyric rhyolite indicating a genetic link between the Kuroko deposits and highly differentiated rhyolitic magma.     

Large tectonic movement of the Japan Arc in late Cenozoic times inferred from paleomagnetism: Review and synthesis

Abstract Paleomagnetic studies facilitate an understanding of the evolution of the Japan Arc in Cenozoic times from the perspective of tectonic movement. The Japan Arc rifted from the Asian continent in the middle Miocene, while East Asia, including the Japan Arc, moved northward at the same time. The rifting phenomenon of the Japan Arc is described by differential rotation of Southwest and Northeast Japan. Southwest Japan was rotated clockwise through about 45° and Northeast Japan was rotated counter-clockwise through about 40°. This differential rotation occurred concurrently at about 15 Ma. Eighty percent of the rotation was completed during a period of 1.8 million years. These factors lead us to propose a'double door'opening mode with a fast spreading rate of 21 cm/yr for the evolution of the Japan Sea, suggesting that the asthenosphere with a low viscosity was injected beneath the Japan Sea area. The large northward motion of East Asia in relation to Europe is expected from the apparent polar wander path constructed from the paleomagnetic data of the Japan Arc. East Asia may have moved northward by more than 1700 km between 20 Ma and 10 Ma accompanied by a slightly clockwise rotation of 10°. The eastern part of the Eurasian plate was subjected to extreme geodynamic conditions in late Cenozoic times.