Defining a model of 3D seismogenic sources for Seismic Hazard Assessment applications: The case of central Apennines (Italy)

Geology-based methods for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) have been developing in Italy. These methods require information on the geometric, kinematic and energetic parameters of the major seismogenic faults. In this paper, we define a model of 3D seismogenic sources in the central Apennines of Italy. Our approach is mainly structural-seismotectonic: we integrate surface geology data (trace of active faults, i.e. 2D features) with seismicity and subsurface geological–geophysical data (3D approach). A fundamental step is to fix constraints on the thickness of the seismogenic layer and deep geometry of faults: we use constraints from the depth distribution of aftershock zones and background seismicity; we also use information on the structural style of the extensional deformation at crustal scale (mainly from seismic reflection data), as well as on the strength and behaviour (brittle versus plastic) of the crust by rheological profiling. Geological observations allow us to define a segmentation model consisting of major fault structures separated by first-order (kilometric scale) structural-geometric complexities considered as likely barriers to the propagation of major earthquake ruptures. Once defined the 3D fault features and the segmentation model, the step onward is the computation of the maximum magnitude of the expected earthquake (M _max). We compare three different estimates of M _max: (1) from association of past earthquakes to faults; (2) from 3D fault geometry and (3) from geometrical estimate corrected by earthquake scaling laws. By integrating all the data, we define a model of seismogenic sources (seismogenic boxes), which can be directly used for regional-scale PSHA. Preliminary applications of PSHA indicate that the 3D approach may allow to hazard scenarios more realistic than those previously proposed.     

Pulsar observations at decametric wavelengths using a swept-frequency dedisperser

In this paper, we describe pulsar observations at decametric wavelengths using the Gauribidanur Radio Telescope made subsequent to our earlier measurements (Deshpande & Radhakrishnan 1992). To improve the time-resolution in our measurements of pulse profiles, we have used the ‘swept-frequency dedispersion’ method with some modifications to suit its application at such low radio frequencies. We also present a new scheme that simplifies the calibration of the receiver gain characteristics. We present average profiles on four pulsars from these improved measurements at 34.5 MHz.     

单一流径基岩裂隙水平均流速试验研究

根据室内模拟试验数据研究了单一流径基岩裂隙水流的平均流速，建立了单一流径无压裂隙水和承压裂隙水的平均流速与水力坡度之间的回归方程     

煤炭三维地震勘探时深转换误差分析及对策

煤炭三维地震勘探对煤层作时深转换时常用的方法是：首先利用钻孔处的目的层铅垂深度除以钻孔处目的层的反射时间值的一半，算出各个钻孔处煤层的大平均速度，然后利用内插法绘制测区速度分布平面图。之后，把速度平面上各点的速度乘以时间平面图上反射时间的一半，得出深度平面图。该时深转换易产生误差，有些情况其误差甚至超过了规范要求。针对测区的实际情况，列举了在二层速度情况下用大平均速度作时深转换时误差分析的一些例子，并提出了如何消除误差的对策。     

高铁对京津冀地区可达性及经济联系的影响

考虑市内交通衔接和乘客出行行为选择,通过加权平均旅行时间、经济潜力和空间自相关分析方法相结合,从不同尺度分析高铁建设对京津冀地区可达性的变化和经济活动空间分布格局的演变。结果表明：① 京津冀地区市域和县域的可达性水平得到明显的改善,形成以京津、京广、京沪方向为轴线向外扩展的不规则环状分布格局,且可达性水平呈现南高、北低的特征。② 高铁对沿线核心城市的经济潜力提升作用明显高于边缘城市,呈现出由中心向外圈层式递减,且以北京为顶点的“倒V”的空间格局。③ 随着可达性时间范围的扩大,京津冀区县的经济活动的空间集聚逐渐弱化,且最优辐射范围在3.5 h以内。     

关于建立天津滨海新区地面沉降值内插模型的探讨

利用多面函数法、加权平均法、线性内插和双线性多项式内插等方法,建立内插模型计算未知点地面沉降值,并进行精度分析。     

基于BMA方法的地面气温的10～15 d延伸期概率预报研究

利用TIGGE资料提供的欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)、英国气象局(UKMO)三个预报中心2013年6月1日至8月31日的地面2 m气温10~15 d预报资料,对延伸期地面气温进行贝叶斯模式平均(Bayesian Model Averaging,BMA)预报试验。结果表明,BMA方法的预报效果随训练期长度而改变,训练期长度为30 d时预报效果最优。BMA方法可提供全概率密度函数,定量描述预报不确定性的大小,且陆地上预报不确定性大于海洋上的预报不确定性,高纬度地区预报不确定性大于低纬度地区的预报不确定性。利用CRPS评分对BMA概率预报技巧进行评估,发现预报技巧随预报时效的延长降低,且预报技巧在海洋上优于陆地、低纬度地区优于高纬度地区。此外,3 d、5 d和7 d滑动平均的预报值反映某些天气过程的平均要素预报,对于提高10~15 d延伸期概率预报技巧有一定效果,且滑动天数越长,预报效果越好。     

1962-2016年阿勒泰地区风速变化分析

利用阿勒泰地区6个气象站点1962-2016年平均风速日值数据资料,采用滑动趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测、Molet小波分析、ArcGIS中插值等方法,研究近55 a来阿勒泰地区平均风速的变化趋势。分析表明：（1）阿勒泰地区风速整体呈显著下降趋势,平均以0.021 1 m·s^-1·a^-1的速率逐步降低,四个季节风速变化趋势与全年一致,其中,夏季下降最突出,递减率为-0.025 4 m·s^-1·a^-1。（2）平均风速空间分布差异明显,总体表现为自西向东逐渐降低。（3）Molet小波分析显示,全年及四个季节平均风速变化均存在25~28 a变化周期,春、夏、秋、冬季表现强弱不同,体现出季节性差异。（4）全区年平均风速于1990年发生突变,但不同季节突变年份存在较大差异,春季、夏季和秋季平均风速突变分别发生在1994年、1993年和1990年,而冬季发生在1983年。（5）城市化进程不是风速显著降低的关键原因,相对于城市化进程,大气环流的变化可能是引起阿勒泰地区风速降低的关键因素。     

Satellite-based estimation of daily average net radiation under clear-sky conditions

ABSTRACT Daily average net radiation （DANR） is an important variable for estimating evapotranspiration from satellite data at regional scales, and is used for atmospheric and hydrologic modeling, as well as ecosystem management. A scheme is proposed to estimate the DANR over large heterogeneous areas under clear-sky conditions using only remotely sensed data. The method was designed to overcome the dependence of DANR estimates on ground data, and to map spatially consistent and reasonably distributed DANR, by using various land and atmospheric data products retrieved from MODIS （Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer） data. An improved sinusoidal model was used to retrieve the diurnal variations of downward shortwave radiation using a single instantaneous value from satellites. The downward shortwave component of DANR was directly obtained from this instantaneous value, and the upward shortwave component was estimated using satellite-derived albedo products. Four observations of air temperature from MOD07_L2 and MYD07_L2 data products were used to derive the downward longwave component of DANR, while the upward longwave component was estimated using the land surface temperature （LST） and the surface emissivity from MOD1 l_L2. Compared to in situ observations at the cropland and grassland sites located in Tongyu, northern China, the root mean square error （RMSE） of DANR estimated for both sites under clear-sky conditions was 37 W m-2 and 40 W m-2, respectively. The errors in estimation of DANR were comparable to those from previous satellite-based methods. Our estimates can be used for studying the surface radiation balance and evapotranspiration.     

GPS 高程拟合方法及精度分析

GPS高程拟合的方法及其所能达到的精度,已成为测绘界关注的一个热点。拟合方法是否恰当,拟合后的精度能否满足要求,直接关系到GPS高程在实际工程中的应用。本文结合应用实例来研究GPS高程拟合的方法,主要包括二次多项式法、多面函数和加权平均法,并利用MATLAB编程实现高程异常的曲面拟合。通过对各种拟合方法的精度分析,得出如下结论：二次多项式法比较适合本应用实例,若选取合适的已知点点位分布、密度,该方法能够达到毫米级精度。