Modelling Seismic Hazard in Earthquake Loss Models with Spatially Distributed Exposure

The prediction of possible future losses from earthquakes, which in many cases affect structures that are spatially distributed over a wide area, is of importance to national authorities, local governments, and the insurance and reinsurance industries. Generally, it is necessary to estimate the effects of many, or even all, potential earthquake scenarios that could impact upon these urban areas. In such cases, the purpose of the loss calculations is to estimate the annual frequency of exceedance (or the return period) of different levels of loss due to earthquakes: so-called loss exceedance curves. An attractive option for generating loss exceedance curves is to perform independent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment calculations at several locations simultaneously and to combine the losses at each site for each annual frequency of exceedance. An alternative method involves the use of multiple earthquake scenarios to generate ground motions at all sites of interest, defined through Monte–Carlo simulations based on the seismicity model. The latter procedure is conceptually sounder but considerably more time-consuming. Both procedures are applied to a case study loss model and the loss exceedance curves and average annual losses are compared to ascertain the influence of using a more theoretically robust, though computationally intensive, procedure to represent the seismic hazard in loss modelling.An erratum to this article can be found at     

气温基准平均值的差异及其统计检验

文章利用安徽有记录以来的气温资料，讨论了单站及区域平均气温三个基准平均值的差异，并假定要素总体均方差未知，对三个基准年间的平均值差异进行了统计检验，现行气象业务以第二基准平均值(1961～1990年)进行统计分析的适用性最好。     

冰雪融水沟谷纵剖面的形态与演化模式

冰雪融水是冰川泥石流的一种主要激发动力。冰雪融水沿程(s)流量Qs=q0(S1/2-s^2/2S)。其沟谷纵剖面形态模式近似为抛物线型：h/H=(s/S)^N。冰雪融水泥石流流域水文地貌系统的熵可用沟谷纵剖面形态指数N来表征：信息熵P=In[(N 2)/2]-N/(N 2)，超熵δxP=N^3(N^2-4)(N 2)，[32(6-N)]。冰雪融水沟谷纵剖面演化的最小能耗模式表现为沿程流速平均值u↑-与N值成正比：u↑-∝(N)。f(N)为流速函数，f(N)={2/3—2/[(N 1)(N 3)]}^1/2；冰雪融水泥石流沟的各地貌发育阶段开始时的u↑-值之比为：泥石流发展阶段(N=0．62)1．0；泥石流旺盛阶段(N=1．23)1．182；泥石流衰减阶段(N=2．0)1．280；流域稳定阶段(N=3．71)1．361。以藏东南典型冰雪融水泥石流沟谷为例，检验了上述沟谷纵剖面之形态与演化模式。     

莫来石研究及应用进展

对莫来石的固溶范围、平均结构、非以度调幅的有序化方式及应用研究进展作了综述,通过对莫来石的研究,能够为它的合理利用提供理论基础;强调应进一步加强对莫来石的固溶范围和非公度调幅的有序化方式的研究。     

Effect of atmospheric action center in low-frequency teleconnection mechanism: an explicit analytic study

In consideration of the characteristics of spectral average of the Rossby wave trains and the adoption of a climatic mean stream field as the basic stream field, an approximate analytical formula for the period of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation (LFO) and the group velocity is deduced from a barotropic and non-divergent linearized vorticity equation. All the action centers of atmosphere are found to be the oscillators of low frequency. The LFO propagates southward across the streamlines in the wind field with a southward component or propagates northward across the streamlines in the wind field with northward component instead of along a great circle. The switch of the propagation direction takes place near the top of ridge or the bottom of trough. The angle between the wave rays and the zonal direction can be determined. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49175241).     

山西断陷带太原-临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究

1303年山西洪洞M8大地震距今已700年. 为了分析长期地震危险性，本文将山西断陷带太原——临汾部分划分为5个震源段，根据历史地震和GPS观测资料，估算出各段的平均地震矩率与强地震平均复发间隔，进而根据最近30多年的台网地震资料计算获得的b值图象，分析不同段落现今应力积累的相对水平. 主要结果表明:临汾盆地段的平均地震矩率为2.211016~3.031016Nm/a, M7.5地震的平均复发间隔估值为1 560~2 140 a. 灵石——洪洞段M8地震的平均复发间隔估值在4300~5100 a之间, 相当于平均矩率为2.581016~3.101016Nm/a. b值图象显示灵石——洪洞段与临汾盆地段现今处于低或较低的应力水平，可能反映自1303年M8和1695年M7.5大地震破裂后，这两段的断面强度至今仍未恢复. 候马段和介休——汾阳段具有相对较高的应力水平，并结合平均复发间隔估值，判定这两个段落可能是未来强震的潜在危险段.      

时间滞后与奇异向量初值生成方法的比较试验

简单介绍了国家气象中心基于奇异向量初值生成方法的神威集合预报准业务系统, 它主要包括资料的前处理、客观分析、预报模式、初值扰动的生成、后处理、产品制作和系统监控七个部分, 共有 32 个成员。 提出了 12 个成员的时间滞后法集合预报系统的实施方案, 并与奇异向量法进行了对比试验。 结果表明, 不论是距平相关系数还是均方根误差, 奇异向量法在绝大多数区域和预报时效都比时间滞后法好。     

国际自由原子时原始权重算法初步分析

自由原子时(EAL)是国际原子时(TAI)的基础,由分布在世界各地的实验室的数百台原子钟加权平均得到。本文研究讨论了EAL加权平均算法(ALGOS)中原始权重算法的权重问题。推导了原子钟频差方差的数学期望,在近似条件下给出了频差方差的数学分布的解析表达式,从理论上解释了ALGOS原始算法部分试验现象。通过仿真试验验证了理论分析的基本结论。     

城市地铁控制网稳定性分析及应用

城市地铁控制网是城市地铁工程的基准,是工程施工质量安全的保障,其稳定与否直接影响到联系测量及贯通误差的计算。本文研究了控制网的稳定性分析方法,结合北京地铁五号线某段控制网,利用两期平面观测数据对控制网进行稳定性分析,保证了隧道的安全贯通。     

关于建立天津滨海新区地面沉降值内插模型的探讨

利用多面函数法、加权平均法、线性内插和双线性多项式内插等方法,建立内插模型计算未知点地面沉降值,并进行精度分析。