考虑历史洪水资料的期望概率权重矩法参数估计统计试验研究

为有效利用历史洪水资料,提高洪水资料系列参数的估计精度,研究期望概率权重矩法在广义极值分布参数估计中的应用。采用蒙特卡洛试验研究期望概率权重矩法的统计特性,并与部分概率权重矩法做比较。结果表明:期望概率权重矩法具有良好的稳定统计特性,并且是具有历史洪水资料系列进行参数估计的一种简单、稳定和有效的参数估计方法,具有推广意义。     

吉林万昌地热储量计算与评价

通过水文地质调查、水文地质钻探查明该区地热条件,近似平均地热梯度是每千米25℃左右。通过热储模型计算出工作区的储热层厚度计算值为56.67 m,同时也估算出研究区的热储量。根据国家相关规范,对区域地热资源进行了温度及规模分级,该地热田属于小型规模。研究结果为开发利用地热资源提供科学依据。     

Moment inequality and complete convergence of moving average processes under asymptotically linear negative quadrant dependence assumptions

Let {Y, Y _i , −∞ < i < ∞} be a doubly infinite sequence of identically distributed and asymptotically linear negative quadrant dependence random variables, {a _i , −∞ < i < ∞} an absolutely summable sequence of real numbers. We are inspired by Wang et al. (Econometric Theory 18:119–139, 2002) and Salvadori (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:116–140, 2003). And Salvadori (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:116–140, 2003) have obtained Linear combinations of order statistics to estimate the quantiles of generalized pareto and extreme values distributions. In this paper, we prove the complete convergence of under some suitable conditions. The results obtained improve and generalize the results of Li et al. (1992) and Zhang (1996). The results obtained extend those for negative associated sequences and ρ^*-mixing sequences. CIC Number O211, AMS (2000) Subject Classification 60F15, 60G50 Research supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China     

地震安全性评价中若干地震地质问题探讨

本文在对活动断层的工程涵义进行了简要分析后,讨论了断层物质测年的工程应用进展及其断层活动时代鉴定问题,并就如何加强中强地震发震构造判别、应用地震地质资料评估大地震年平均发生率、以及活动断层地表断错位移的概率评价等问题作了初步探讨。     

Non-Integrability and Structure of the Resonance Zones in a Class of Galactic Potentials

The structure of the resonance zone in nearly integrable Hamiltonian systems is studied by a more general method than the pendulum approximation. This method applies to the case of a non-degenerate integrable part in the Hamiltonian. This problem may be overcome in a class of galactic-type polynomial potentials, in the case where the higher-order term is by itself integrable. An illustrative example is worked out.     

Simulation and analysis on seasonal variability of average salinityin the Yellow Sea

The CTD (conductivity, temperature and depth) data collected by six China-Korea joint cruises during 1996-1998 and the climatological data suggest that the seasonal variability of average salinity in the Yellow Sea (Sa) presents a general sinusoid pattern. To study the mechanism of the variability, annual cycles of Sa were simulated and a theoretical analysis based on the governing equations was reported.Three main factors are responsible for the variability: the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC), the Changji-ang (Yangtze) River diluted water (YRDW) and the evaporation minus precipitation (E-P). From December to the next May, the variability of Sa is mainly controlled by the salt transportation of the YSWC. But in early July, the YSWC is overtaken and replaced by the YRDW which then becomes the most important controller in summer. From late September to November, the E-P gradually took the lead. The mass exchange north of the 37癗 line is not significant.     

不确定条件下的定价模型及比较

就需求、成本不确定性的一般情况，建立了基于期望利润最大化的一般定价模型，并就4种特殊定价模型，在不确定性条件下，对垄断厂商采用确定性定价与采用不确定性定价下的收益及最优产量等情况进行了比较，为垄断者在定价时提供参考。     

A field‐scale infiltration model accounting for spatial heterogeneity of rainfall and soil saturated hydraulic conductivity

This study first explores the role of spatial heterogeneity, in both the saturated hydraulic conductivity K_s and rainfall intensity r, on the integrated hydrological response of a natural slope. On this basis, a mathematical model for estimating the expected areal‐average infiltration is then formulated. Both K_s and r are considered as random variables with assessed probability density functions. The model relies upon a semi‐analytical component, which describes the directly infiltrated rainfall, and an empirical component, which accounts further for the infiltration of surface water running downslope into pervious soils (the run‐on effect). Monte Carlo simulations over a clay loam soil and a sandy loam soil were performed for constructing the ensemble averages of field‐scale infiltration used for model validation. The model produced very accurate estimates of the expected field‐scale infiltration rate, as well as of the outflow generated by significant rainfall events. Furthermore, the two model components were found to interact appropriately for different weights of the two infiltration mechanisms involved. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国重力场的精化及其派生量的精度估计

简述了局部地形改正、平均空间重力异常、高程异常、垂线偏差等重力场及其派生量的计算方法 ,并着重估计了它们的计算精度。结果表明 :我国 5′× 5′平均空间重力异常中误差小于± 5 .0× 10 - 5ms- 2 的占 4 0 .2 % ,总体精度为± 9× 10 - 5ms- 2 。 5个地区垂线偏差子午分量中误差平均值为± 1″ .2 8,卯酉分量中误差平均值为± 1″ .71。 3个地区高程异常中误差平均值为± 0 .173m。用EGM 96计算我国高程异常的中误差为± 0 .984m。     

基于广义Pareto分布的广东省近50年极端降水事件研究

利用广东省平均和5个代表站点1961-2010年近50年的逐日降水量资料,采用基于广义Pareto分布的平均剩余寿命图法计算极端降水阈值,并与传统的百分位法进行比较,对广东省极端降水的时间变化和空间分布特征进行了分析。结果表明,平均剩余寿命图法是计算极端降水阈值的一种有效方法,计算结果更能反映极端降水事件的区域差异。近50年来,广东省及各区域极端降水事件的强度和发生频率年际变化较大,均没有明显的上升趋势;热带、南亚热带和中亚热带3个自然分区的变化特征差异明显,空间上表现为南高北低的分布形式。