GPS动态定位精度与定位观测时间关系分析

GPS动态定位已经广泛应用于导航和测量等各个领域。为了系统研究定位精度与定位时间的关系,本文根据一个模拟动态定位实例,研究GPS动态定位得到的单历元定位结果的精度,然后采用不同时间间隔移动平均,分析定位结果的精度与定位时间的关系。结果表明通过一定观测时间的平均,可以提高动态定位结果的精度和可靠性,但精度的提高与观测时间的长度并非为线性关系。本例数据中采用2—5 min平均获得的定位误差即可比单历元定位误差减小1倍左右。     

风险评估在西五路滑坡评价中的应用

分析了滑坡灾害风险评估的基本方法,通过西五路工程实例介绍滑坡灾害风险评估的基本步骤:(1)全面勘察该地区地理地质环境,包括滑坡各项性质及该地区地面设施和人员分布。(2)进行危险性和易损性分析,包括计算滑坡稳定性和滑坡失稳概率。(3)在危险性和易损性分析基础上进行期望损失分析。     

圆锥扫描式机载激光测深系统扫描轨迹建模与分析

对圆锥扫描式机载激光测深系统在海面上的激光脚点扫描轨迹进行几何建模,重点分析了水文模式下激光脚点扫描轨迹的平均测点密度和覆盖效率。根据设定的几何模型,以CZMIL机载激光测深系统为例,计算得到单航线测量模式下双向扫描区域激光脚点"最小距离"小于1.6 m的比例为99.78%,5 m×5m大小的格网内激光脚点的平均数目为11.93个。另外,对激光测深系统旁向重叠度和两条航线扫描轨迹进行了分析,认为31.3%的旁向重叠度可以保证不产生飞行漏洞,但对激光脚点的测点密度提升效果并不明显。最后,对激光脚点分布的不均匀性进行了分析,讨论了不同的激光测深系统参数对测点密度和测量效率的影响效果。     

Morse-3型S波段测波雷达比对试验结果分析

为了评价Morse-3型S波段测波雷达试验数据的有效性和实际观测效果,在遮浪岛附近以MKⅢ型波浪骑士浮标作为比对仪器进行试验.比对结果显示,所有参数的测量结果均略高于比对仪器的测量结果,且两者的相关性较好,平均波高和对应波周期测量结果最好.波高数据相关系数为0.936,误差介于(-0.1～0.1)m和(-0.2～0.2)m的概率分别为58.59％和99.38％;波周期误差介于(-1.5～1.5)s的概率为64.18％,误差标准偏差为0.50 s.     

基于SIFT特征和改进融合策略的图像拼接算法

为了消除图像拼接中的缝隙,本文提出一种改进的图像拼接算法。该算法首先利用经典的SIFT算子提取特征点,接着建立两幅图像的映射关系,利用RANSAC算法进行特征匹配点提纯,最后重叠区域的像素融合采用改进的加权平均算法。实验表明,该算法可以很好地消除重叠区域的拼接缝隙。     

可靠性理论在边坡反分析中的运用

将反分析方法和可靠性理论相结合,分析了两者的异同点和存在的问题,提出了一种方便而实用计算方法用于在边坡反算中选择岩土体参数,该方法给出了在统计信息有限的情况下,如何处理各参数均值的思路。     

Prediction of hydrological drought durations based on Markov chains: case of the Canadian prairies

Abstract

Hydrological drought durations (lengths) in the Canadian prairies were modelled using the standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequences derived from the streamflow series at annual, monthly and weekly time scales. The rivers chosen for the study present high levels of persistence (as indicated by values exceeding 0.95 for lag-1 autocorrelation in weekly SHI sequences), because they encompass large catchment areas (2210–119 000 km²) and traverse, or originate in, lakes. For such rivers, Markov chain models were found to be simple and efficient tools for predicting the drought duration (year, month, or week) based on annual, monthly and weekly SHI sequences. The prediction of drought durations was accomplished at threshold levels corresponding to median flow (Q50) (drought probability, q?=?0.5) to Q95 (drought probability, q?=?0.05) exceedence levels in the SHI sequences. The first-order Markov chain or the random model was found to be acceptable for the prediction of annual drought lengths, based on the Hazen plotting position formula for exceedence probability, because of the small sample size of annual streamflows. On monthly and weekly time scales, the second-order Markov chain model was found to be satisfactory using the Weibull plotting position formula for exceedence probability. The crucial element in modelling drought lengths is the reliable estimation of parameters (conditional probabilities) of the first- and second-order persistence, which were estimated using the notions implicit in the discrete autoregressive moving average class of models. The variance of drought durations is of particular significance, because it plays a crucial role in the accurate estimation of persistence parameters. Although, the counting method of the estimation of persistence parameters was found to be unsatisfactory, it proved useful in setting the initial values and also in subsequent adjustment of the variance-based estimates of persistence parameters. At low threshold levels corresponding to q < 0.20, even the first-order Markov chain can be construed as a satisfactory model for predicting drought durations based on monthly and weekly SHI sequences.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Sharma, T.C. and Panu, U.S., 2012. Prediction of hydrological drought durations based on Markov chains in the Canadian prairies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 705–722.     

Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches

Under future climate scenarios, possible changes of drought patterns pose new challenges for water resources management. For quantifying and qualifying drought characteristics in the UK, the drought severity indices of six catchments are investigated and modelled by two stochastic methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and the generalized linear model (GLM) approach. From the ARIMA models, autocorrelation structures are first identified for the drought index series, and the unexplained variance of the series is used to establish empirical relationships between drought and climate variables. Based on the ARIMA results, mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation index are found to be significant climate variables for seasonal drought forecasting. Using the GLM approach, occurrences and amounts of rainfall are simulated with conditioning on climate variables. From the GLM‐simulated rainfall for the 1980s and 2080s, the probabilistic characteristics of the drought severity are derived and assessed. Results indicate that the drought pattern in the 2080s is less certain than for the 1961–1990 period, based on the Shannon entropy, but that droughts are expected to be more clustered and intermittent. The 10th and 50th quantiles of drought are likely higher in the 2080s scenarios, but there is no evidence showing the changes in the 90th quantile extreme droughts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐scale Decomposition of Co‐seismic Deformation from High Resolution DEMs: a Case Study of the 2004 Mid‐Niigata Earthquake

Decomposing co-seismic deformation is an immediate need for researchers who are interested in earthquake inversion analysis and geo-hazard mapping. However, conventional InSAR or digital elevation models (DEMs) imagery analyses only provide the displacement in the Line-of-Sight (LOS) direction or elevation changes. The 2004 Mid-Niigata earthquake in Japan provides lessons on how to decompose co-seismic deformation from two sets of DEMs. If three adjacent points undergo a rigid-body-translation movement, their co-seismic deformation can be decomposed by solving simultaneous equations. Although this method has been successfully used to discuss tectonic deformations, the algorithm needed improvement and a more rigorous algorithm, including a new definition of nominal plane, DEMs comparability improvement and matrix condition check is provided. Even with these procedures, the obtained decomposed displacement often showed remarkable scatter prompting the use of the moving average method, which was used to determine both tectonic and localized displacement characteristics. A cut-off window and a pair of band-pass windows were selected according to the regional geology and construction activities to ease the tectonic and localized displacement calculations, respectively. The displacement field of the tectonic scale shows two major clusters of large lateral components, and coincidently major visible landslides were found mostly within them. The localized displacement helps to reveal hidden landslides in the target area. As far as the Kizawa hamlet is concerned, the obtained vectors show down-slope movements, which are consistent with the observed traces of dislocations that were found in the Kizawa tunnel and irrigation wells. The method proposed has great potential to be applied to understanding post-earthquake rehabilitation in other areas.     

成都经济区不同地貌景观区土壤有机碳分布特征及储量估算

利用四川省成都经济区多目标区域地球化学调查获得的土壤有机碳含量数据,探讨了成都经济区不同地貌景观区土壤有机碳的分布特征。山区表层土壤有机碳含量(SOC)最高(22 g/kg左右),较平原区、丘陵区高一倍以上,丘陵区最低(9.49 g/kg)。成都平原区和东部丘陵区深层土壤碳含量相差不大,且均低于研究区深层土壤碳含量均值(6.99 g/kg)。利用指数模型对单位土壤平均碳量(USCATOC)、有机碳储量(USCATOC,h)、有机碳丰度指数(R)进行了估算。结果表明:各地貌单元土壤碳含量、单位土壤平均碳量、有机碳储量、有机碳丰度指数(R)分布具有山区高于平原区、丘陵区最低的一致性特征。龙门山区、西南山区面积约占全区的42%,土壤有机碳储量约占全区的59%;成都平原区、丘陵区面积占58%,土壤有机碳储量约占全区的41%。单位土壤平均碳量、有机碳储量在不同地貌单元中分布的差异主要与不同地貌单元的土壤有机碳含量有关,此外还可能与成土母质、植被发育情况、土地利用方式有关。