库水作用下公路岩质岸坡稳定性影响因素综合评判

以三峡库区公路岩质岸坡为研究对象,通过对库水作用的影响效应分析,建立了岸坡稳定性评价的参数指标评价体系以及相应的分级标准。在此基础上。应用影响因素综合评判方法,对实例岸坡进行了稳定性分级评价．评价结果与实际情况基本相符。     

螺髻山北麓地下水化学特征与水质评价

为研究川西大凉山区螺髻山北麓地下水化学特征、演化机制以及评价地下水质现状,笔者系统采集研究区不同地段的15组地下水样品为研究对象。利用Gibbs图解法、离子比例系数法和基于RMSprop算法的BP神经网络评价法,探讨该地区地下水化学特征演化机制,评价地下水质现状,支持服务帮助当地合理开发和安全利用水资源。结果表明研究区水化学类型以Mg2+·Ca2+−HCO3–为主,其水化学离子的形成主要以岩土风化溶滤作用为主,由硅酸盐矿物与碳酸盐矿物共同控制,硅酸盐矿物控制更显著。结合地质背景,认为硅酸盐矿物主要来自火山碎屑岩类、花岗岩类、砂岩类和泥质岩类等岩石。利用BP神经网络对5000组地下水样本学习训练,对研究区样本进行评价,模型训练图像表明BP神经网络能很好拟合地下水样本训练集并且对测试集进行客观准确的判断。研究区地下水评价结果显示：Ⅰ类水质点占13.3%,Ⅱ类水质点占40%,Ⅲ类水质点占46.6%,整体水质较好,建议Ⅲ类水质地区普格县特尔果乡甲甲沟村、普格县特补乡白庙子需要加强地下水污染源调查以及水质保护。     

碳酸盐风化碳汇与森林碳汇的对比——碳汇研究思路和方法变革的必要性

目前,全球碳循环研究主要集中在海洋碳汇以及陆地土壤和植被碳汇,而对岩石风化碳汇仅考虑地质长时间尺度的硅酸盐风化作用,而认为碳酸盐风化在长时间尺度上对碳汇无贡献。然而,碳酸盐相对于硅酸盐有快得多的溶解速度,且对全球变化(特别是气候和CO2变化)的响应迅速,同时由于生物作用和人为活动的影响,使得碳酸盐风化碳汇的能力需要重新评价。最新的研究发现,由碳酸盐溶解、全球水循环及水生生物光合利用溶解无机碳共同作用,即水-岩-气-生相互作用形成的大气碳汇,远远大于之前只估计了河流输运的无机碳汇,其量级与森林碳汇量相当,因此有必要对传统的碳汇研究思路和方法进行某些变革,这有可能为解决所谓的全球“碳失汇”问题找到一条出路。      

中国西北内陆干旱盆地地下水资源评估与开发

以多年的地下水勘查经验、成果为基础，总结西北内陆干旱盆地地下水资源评估与开发中的主要问题，分析了产生这些问题的客观和主观原因；认为地下水动态监测和水运行测量统计是实现逐步逼近地下水资源量的最有效方法；提出了开发地下水库，实施地表水、地下水联合调度，稳定供水，是西北内陆干旱盆地水资源开发的最佳模式。     

上海深基坑工程环境地质问题及防治对策

结合上海城区某深基坑工程,针对项目特点与场区地质条件,分析了工程建设可能引发的基坑水土突涌、基坑边坡稳定、砂土渗流液化、基坑开挖和降水过程中地基变形和地面沉降等环境地质问题,进行危险性评价,并提出了防治对策措施。     

中国区域地壳稳定性定量化评价与分区

中国地处环太平洋构造带与地中海构造带交接部位,地质构造复杂,活动性较为强烈,各种内动力地质灾害比较严重,总体看来中国区域地壳稳定性相对较差。为了使区域地壳稳定性评价与分区获得定量化认识,更好地服务于经济建设和减灾防灾,本文在分析中国现今活动的主要构造体系与内动力地质灾害的分布规律的基础上,首先进行区域地壳稳定性定量化评价待评区的划分;其次进行定量化评价指标的选定、取值、权重分配及评价标准的确定;最后运用模糊数学进行中国区域地壳稳定性定量化评价与分区。      

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

加强国土资源综合调查评价的战略构想

分析了加强国土资源综合调查评价的目的和意义,探讨了中国国土资源调查评价中存在的突出问题。在对国际经验和国内探索实践进行对比分析的基础上,提出了加强中国国土资源综合调查评价的战略构想,即先易后难,循序推进;综合权衡,选准切入口。     

Quantitative risk assessment of landslide by limit analysis and random fields

Risk may be estimated by multiplying the probability of failure by the consequence. This is acceptable for systems that have a single mode of failure. For systems that have multiple failure modes, such as landslides, the consequences should be assessed individually for each of the failure modes. This paper proposes a new framework of quantitative landslide risk assessment, in which consequences are assessed individually. The framework is generally applicable, and the landslide risk assessments of two typical slopes are presented.     

形变监测高分辨率InSAR数据的精度分析

收集江苏高分辨率InSAR地面沉降监测结果及兴化、淮安同期水准测量资料和基岩标同期监测资料,利用79个水准点测量数据、7个基岩标（分别选取不同时段）测量数据共98个数据样本,将InSAR技术与水准测量及基岩标测量技术的监测结果进行对比发现,监测结果一致性率为86.73%,平均差值为2.08 mm,标准差为2.50 mm,最大差值为18.64 mm,表明InSAR可进行半定量形变监测,但在高层建筑、排水管线、大坝、桥梁等需高精度形变监测的工程方面仍不能替代水准测量。