徐州市水土流失时空变化研究

本文以3S技术为支撑,在修正水土流失方程（RUSLE）的基础上,针对徐州黄泛平原-丘陵地带的特殊地形地貌、对2000年以来徐州市水土流失时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：2000-2014年徐州市土壤侵蚀等级以微度为主,微度侵蚀面积占总侵蚀面积多年平均达到76.34%;中度侵蚀次之,所占比例在10%~17%间;剧烈侵蚀所占比例最少。轻度及以上土壤侵蚀等级主要发生在中部微山湖下游、京杭大运河一带的丘陵岗地地区、主城区与故黄河北岸的黄泛平原地区,以及丰县、新沂、邳州的局部区域;土壤侵蚀存在一定程度年际变化特征,睢宁、丰县、邳州的部分地区侵蚀面积年际变化较为明显,土壤侵蚀总面积整体上呈现下降趋势。     

Research on the Application of Fast-steering Mirror in Stellar Interferometers

In stellar interferometers, the fast-steering mirror (FSM) is widely utilized to correct the wavefront tilt caused by the atmospheric turbulence and internal instrumental vibration, because of its high resolution and fast response frequency. In this study, the non-coplanar error between the FSM and the actuator deflection axis introduced by the manufacturing, assembly, and adjustment is analyzed systematically. Via a numerical method, the additional optical path difference (OPD) caused by the above factors is studied, and its effect on the fringe tracking accuracy of a stellar interferometer is also discussed. On the other hand, the starlight parallelism between the beams of two arms is one of the main factors for the loss of fringe visibility. By analyzing the influence of wavefront tilt caused by the atmospheric turbulence on fringe visibility, a simple and efficient real-time correction scheme of starlight parallelism is proposed based on a single array detector. The feasibility of this scheme is demonstrated by a laboratory experiment. The results show that after the correction of fast-steering mirror, the starlight parallelism meets preliminarily the requirement of a stellar interferometer on the wavefront tilt.     

中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。     

基于VSD模型的铁山港湾红树林生态系统脆弱性初步评价

基于脆弱性域图 (vulnerability scoping diagram, VSD)评价模型, 从暴露程度、敏感性、适应能力3个方面构建了红树林生态系统脆弱性评价指标体系。采用改进的综合指数法和模糊综合评价法, 重新定义脆弱性分级标准, 定量评价了铁山港湾红树林生态系统在1989年、2003年和2014年3个年份的脆弱性水平。结果显示, 铁山港湾红树林生态系统在3个年份的脆弱性水平值分别为0.145、0.255、0.334, 呈现增加趋势。首先, 铁山港湾红树林生态系统面临的暴露程度不断增大, 主要胁迫因子为滩涂围垦面积、废水排放量; 其次, 生态系统的敏感性增强, 主要敏感因子是海洋生物质量综合指数、底栖生物和潮间带生物多样性指数; 第三, 生态系统的适应能力略有增加, 总体上较弱。     

Population abundance and seasonal migration patterns indicated by commercial catch-per-unit-effort of hakes (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) in the northern Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem

We developed generalised additive models (GAMs) to estimate standardised time-series of population abundance indices for assessment purposes and to infer ecological and behavioural information on northern Benguela hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using haul-by-haul commercial trawl catch-rate data as proxies for hake densities. The modelling indicated that individual ship identifiers should be used rather than general vessel characteristics, such as vessel size. The final models explained 79% and 68% of the variability in the commercial catch rates of M. capensis and M. paradoxus, respectively. The spatial density patterns were consistent and confirmed existing knowledge about these species in the northern Benguela system. Furthermore, seasonal migration patterns were described for the first time and were found to correspond to the known spawning areas and seasons for M. capensis and M. paradoxus. Spatial density patterns were validated using the geostatistical modelling results of fisheries-independent trawl survey data. Improved understanding of the relationships between fleet dynamics and fish movement can be achieved by taking into consideration the present catch-rate model and spatial and seasonal distribution maps. We conclude that the yearly standardised CPUE time-series are problematic as proxies for total stock abundance because of spatial coverage issues. Consequently, such CPUE data should not be used for stock-size assessments and fisheries advice concerning northern Benguela hakes until this is solved. We generally recommend the exclusion of standardised CPUE time-series from stock assessments when important and changing parts of the stock distribution cannot be targeted by the fishery, such as due to closed areas or seasons.     

基于GIS技术的全国地面塌陷灾害危险性评价

本文运用GIS的缓冲区、叠加、空间分析等功能，从地貌类型、碳酸盐岩类型、水文地质条件、人类活动及土地利用因素方面，对以岩溶塌陷和采空塌陷为代表的中国地面塌陷灾害危险性进行评价。其中模型中各影响因素的权重值主要是通过层次分析法来确定；而影响因素中的分类值则是地面塌陷点的分布概率。评估结果表明，地面塌陷极高危险区主要分布在中国的广西、贵州、云南，其次是湖北、湖南、重庆、四川、陕西。     

锦州9-3油田海域环境现状及其评价

1 引言 石油,作为现代社会的主要能源,在全球经济迅速发展和人口激增的情况下,世界范围内的供求在不断增长,海洋石油勘探开发规模也在不断扩大.海洋油气开发已成为我国油气战略资源的主要来源之一.     

The anatomy of a disaster, an overview of Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans

Hurricane Katrina created the one of the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States, resulting in over 1600 fatalities and $30B in direct economic losses in southern Louisiana. The Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines experienced the highest surge level recorded in North America and Katrina-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico that equaled the highest previously measured by NOAA buoys. What happened in New Orleans epitomizes the risk of living below sea level in a coastal city, depending on structures that were the result of considerable compromise and piecemeal funding and construction. The Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force was established to examine the performance of the New Orleans and southeast Louisiana hurricane protection system and provide real-time input to the repairs and rebuilding of the system. In addition to this atypical just-in-time forensic analysis, the task force examined the risk of living in New Orleans prior to and following the repairs to the hurricane protection system. Much of the forensic analysis depended on modeling and simulation of hurricane surge and waves. With virtually all measurement instruments swept away by Katrina, only models and high-water marks were available to recreate the conditions that the structures experienced during the storm. Because of the complexities of the region and the processes involved, simulation of hurricane surge and waves required many fresh ideas and new approaches and these topics, along with new concepts for future planning and design, are the focus of this special issue. Yet, the need to influence the repair and rebuilding of the damaged structures prior to the next hurricane season (roughly 9 months) dictated using existing computational tools that were ready to go. The same modeling and simulation approach was put to work to define the surge and wave hazard New Orleans faces for the future. To put this important body of work in context, this paper provides a broad overview of the entire scope of work of the task force and summarizes its principal findings.     

连云港近岸海域沉积物中重金属污染来源及生态评价

采用等离子体发射光谱法、冷原子吸收法、原子荧光光谱法及灼烧法测定了连云港海州湾近岸表层沉积物中重金属和有机质的含量,利用主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)研究了沉积物中重金属的来源,发现前3个主成分的贡献率分别为54.21%、19.04%、16.37%,表明重金属主要有3个来源:工业和生活污水排放、农业灌溉水的排放、有机质降解。以PCA计算结果为基础应用海洋沉积物污染指数(Marine sediment pollution index,MSPI)和平均沉积物质量标准商数(Mean sediment quality guideline quotient,SQG-Q)评价了沉积物中重金属的污染状况及对生物的潜在影响。结果发现,海州湾近岸海区沉积物质量污染严重(MSPI值在60到80之间),排污口海区的沉积物污染最为严重(MSPI值大于80),连云港近岸海域沉积物对生物的负影响潜力为中度水平(0.1SQG-Q1)。     

Understanding marine ecosystem based management: A literature review

Ecosystem based management takes into account the interconnectedness and interdependent nature of ecosystem components and emphasizes the importance of ecosystem structures and functions which provide a range of services. The concept has now been adopted by many international agreements and national governments and is in the process of being implemented. This paper seeks to review the literature and to analyze the understanding of the subject. The term is defined and its implementation in fisheries and for all marine uses is analyzed. It has been concluded that to understand marine ecosystem based management one must consider ecosystems as complex adaptive systems which can show changes at higher levels from actions and processes occurring at lower levels. Recognizing that humans are part of these complex adaptive systems is vital in that their actions along with other processes can lead to transformations in ecosystem functioning. This recognition is also important to show how society can sustainably exploit these resources and that the inclusion of all stakeholders in the management process is necessary to legitimize the process. The uses of the precautionary principle along with adaptive management are seen to be useful tools in implementing these insights into the management of natural resources. Finally, the need for reducing consumption of fish is considered.