西北太平洋海面高度异常对热带气旋的响应

采用一种海面高度异常(Sea Level Anomaly,SLA)对热带气旋响应的合成分析方法,即根据热带气旋的路径位置和运动方向对海面高度异常进行插值、旋转和平均,得到不同热带气旋强度下,以热带气旋最佳路径点为原点的海面高度异常场.利用该方法,基于Aviso卫星高度计数据和中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径数据,得到了199...     

基于融合U-Net及ConvLSTM的海面高度异常预报方法研究

海面高度异常是反映海洋环境状况的主要变量之一。本文使用1993—2019年的融合月均海面高度异常数据,建立了基于深度学习的海面高度异常预测神经网络模型,提出了基于融合U型网络(U-Net)和卷积长短记忆网络(ConvLSTM)的中长期海面高度异常预报模型。在研究海域0.25°×0.25°的空间分辨率下,模型测试集预报结果的均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别为0.039 m和0.027 m,均优于全连接LSTM预报模型和ConvLSTM+CNN预报模型,为大中尺度的海面高度异常预报提供了新的方法。     

印度洋海温异常对西北太平洋台风的影响及机制研究

基于近40 a NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均高度场、风场、涡度场、垂直速度场以及NOAA重构的海面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)资料和美国联合台风预警中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)热带气旋最佳路径资料,利用合成分析方法,研究了前期春季及同期夏季印度洋海面温度同夏季西北太平洋台风活动的关系。结果表明:1)前期春季印度洋海温异常(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA)尤其是关键区位于赤道偏北印度洋和西南印度洋地区对西北太平洋台风活动具有显著的影响,春季印度洋海温异常偏暖年,后期夏季,110°～180°E的经向垂直环流表现为异常下沉气流,对应风场的低层低频风辐散、高层辐合的形势,这种环流形势使得低层水汽无法向上输送,对流层中层水汽异常偏少,纬向风垂直切变偏大,从而夏季西北太平洋台风频数偏少、强度偏弱,而异常偏冷年份则正好相反。2)春季印度洋异常暖年,西北太平洋副热带高压加强、西伸;而春季印度洋异常冷年,后期夏季西北太平洋副热带高压减弱、东退,这可能是引起夏季西北太平洋台风变化的另一原因。     

马里亚纳海槽扩张轴(中心)玄武岩铂族元素特征

马里亚纳海槽扩张轴中心玄武岩铂族元素(PGE)总量变化范围为0.418×10-9~1.022×10-9,其原始地幔标准化配分模式呈正倾斜型,表现出PPGE(包括Pt,Pd,Rh)和金的相对富集.与其他幔源岩石相比,该区玄武岩PGE总量较低,(Pd/Ir)N,(Pd/Pt)N,(Pd/Ru)N变化较大,表现出铂、铱的相对亏损和明显的铂负异常(Pt/Pt*=0.01~0.15).PGE的分布特征一方面反映了该区地幔熔融度不高,另一方面,大离子亲石元素LILE(铷、锶、钾等)、铅和轻稀土LREE略富集,暗示扩张中心之下的软流圈地幔源受到了岛弧地幔的混染.上述特征反映了马里亚纳海槽玄武岩是MORB型与岛弧型地幔源不同程度混合后部分融熔的产物.     

东亚冬夏季风对热带印度洋秋季海温异常的响应

利用多年的Reynolds月平均海表温度资料和NCEP/NCAR全球大气再分析资料,分析了热带印度洋秋季海表温度距平(SSTA)与后期东亚冬夏季风强度变化的关系。结果表明,热带印度洋秋季SSTA的主要模态是全区一致(USB)型和偶极子(IOD)型,USB型模态主要代表热带印度洋秋季SSTA的长期变化趋势,而IOD型模态主要反映热带印度洋秋季SSTA的年际变化。热带印度洋秋季海温气候变率中既存在着明显的ENSO信号,也有独立于ENSO的变率特征,独立于ENSO的热带印度洋秋季SSTA变化的主要模态仍是USB型和IOD型。前期秋季USB模态与东亚冬季风及东亚副热带夏季风之间为负相关关系;与前期正(负)IOD模态相对应,南海夏季风强度偏弱(强),而东亚副热带夏季风强度偏强(弱)。USB型和IOD型模态对后期东亚冬、夏季风强度变化的影响是独立于ENSO的,但ENSO起到了调节二者相关显著程度的作用。     

Modeling an atypical petroleum system: A case study of hydrocarbon generation,migration and accumulation related to igneous intrusions in the Neuquen Basin,Argentina

In the Altiplanicie del Payún area (Neuquen Basin, Argentina), immature source rock sections intruded by up to 600 m thick Tertiary laccoliths show full spectrum maturity aureoles over hundreds of meters from the contacts. Commercial oil accumulations (20–33°API) and oil shows are located along the entire column, both in sandstone/carbonate and fractured igneous reservoirs. A challenging numerical model that included the emplacement of the intrusive bodies, with extreme temperature ranges and unusually short calculation time steps, has been done with the aim to better understand hydrocarbon generation and migration processes related to these thermal anomalies.     

地形与热源强迫下的南方涛动

用El Nino和La Nina位相时的海温异常和地形作为大气下垫面的异常强迫,引入IAP的两层原始方程大气环流模式,模拟出了南方涛动的典型结构.当去掉地形后,仅仅由海温异常也能模拟出太平洋东西部的气压异常振荡,但太平洋东部振荡中心的位置并不与观测的一致.由此可见,观测到的南方涛动是在实际地形下对全球海温异常的响应.     

重力异常垂直梯度中央区效应的精密计算

为提高利用重力异常计算重力异常垂直梯度中央区效应的精度,视中央区为矩形域,将重力异常表示成双三次多项式插值形式,引入非奇异变换,推导出了重力异常垂直梯度中央区效应的精密计算公式。以低纬度区域分辨率为2＇×2＇的重力异常数据为背景场进行了仿真分析,结果表明在解算计算点所在的1个网格的中央区效应时,传统公式与本文导出公式计算结果差值的最大值达数E。该导出公式可为重力异常垂直梯度中央区效应的精密计算提供理论依据。     

BTEX异常对海域油气藏指示作用的研究

常规的油气化探方法一般是应用烷烃类作为油气勘探的基本指标,但是烷烃类易受人类活动和生物活动的干扰,使常规的化探技术在油气勘探中一直受到限制。人们开始考虑采用直接的生物标记化合物来预测油气藏,如芳烃系列中的苯系化合物苯(benzene)、甲苯(toluene)、乙苯(ethylbenzene)、二甲苯(xylem),简称BTEX。国内外研究表明,BTEX基本不受人类活动和生物活动的干扰,对油气藏具有良好的指示作用。依据南海某区的实测资料,采用自主研发的油气化探可视化评价软件进行数据处理,剥离背景异常,圈出有效的BTEX异常,并与靶区地层剖面进行了对比,结果证实了BTEX对海域油气藏具有良好的指示作用。     

Kilometer-scale fault-related thermal anomalies in tight gas sandstones

Upper Carboniferous sandstones make one of the most important tight gas reservoirs in Central Europe. This study integrates a variety of geothermometers (chlorite thermometry, fluid inclusion microthermometry and vitrinite reflection measurements) to characterize a thermal anomaly in a reservoir outcrop analog (Piesberg quarry, Lower Saxony Basin), which is assumed responsible for high temperatures of circa 300 °C, deteriorating reservoir quality entirely. The tight gas siliciclastics were overprinted with temperatures approximately 90–120 °C higher compared to outcropping rocks of a similar stratigraphic position some 15 km to the west. The local temperature increase can be explained by circulating hydrothermal fluids along the fault damage zone of a large NNW-SSE striking fault with a displacement of up to 600 m in the east of the quarry, laterally heating up the entire exposed tight gas sandstones. The km-scale lateral extent of this fault-bound thermal anomaly is evidenced by vitrinite reflectance measurements of meta-anthracite coals (VR_rot ∼ 4.66) and the temperature-related diagenetic overprint. Data suggest that this thermal event and the associated highest coalification was reached prior to peak subsidence during Late Jurassic rifting (162 Ma) based on K-Ar dating of the <2 μm fraction of the tight gas sandstones. Associated stable isotope data from fluid inclusions, hosted in a first fracture filling quartz generation (T ∼ 250 °C) close to lithostatic fluid pressure (P ∼ 1000 bars), together with authigenic chlorite growth in mineralized extension fractures, demonstrate that coalification was not subject to significant changes during ongoing burial. This is further evidenced by the biaxial reflectance anisotropy of meta-anthracite coals. A second event of quartz vein formation occurred at lower temperatures (T ∼ 180 °C) and lower (hydrostatic) pressure conditions (P ∼ 400 bars) and can be related to basin inversion. This second quartz generation might be associated with a second event of illite growth and K-Ar ages of 96.5–106.7 Ma derived from the <0.2 μm fraction of the tight gas sandstones.This study demonstrates the exploration risk of fault-bound thermal anomalies by deteriorating entirely the reservoir quality of tight gas sandstones with respect to porosity and permeability due to the cementation with temperature-related authigenic cements. It documents that peak temperatures are not necessarily associated with peak subsidence. Consequently, these phenomena need to be considered in petroleum system models to avoid, for example, overestimates of burial depth and reservoir quality.