夏季赤道东太平洋海温异常对全球及东亚短期气候变化影响的数值试验

本文应用中国科学院大气物理研究所设计的两层大气环流模式（IAP-AGCM）研究了夏季赤道东太平洋地区负的海温异常对全球大气及赤道太平洋地区和东亚局地短期气候变化的影响，着重分析了海温异常（SSTA）所造成的降水、高度场、风场以及赤道太平洋地区海表感热和潜热输送等一些物理场的异常，并对赤道东太平洋海温异常影响全球及赤道太平洋和东亚局地短期气候变化的物理机制进行了探讨，得到了一些有意义的结果。     

1994年西太平洋副高异常变化及其成因分析

对１９９４年副高的异常气候特征及其原因进行了分析，结果表明，１９９４年副高强度异常强，季节性北跳早，盛夏位置稳定北，副高的这些特点除了气候背景的影响外，主要与海气相互作用有关。同也，也讨论了副高异常对海温距平场的影响。     

回归预测模型的稳健性讨论--以润扬大桥工程为例

经典的LS估计法(least squares estimation,LS estimation)是对每个观测数据都给予相同的权重,由此带来了对于异常值的处理不当,从而影响了回归模型的有效性,本文采用迭代加权最小二乘法来进行稳健估计(RobustEstimation),并基于MATLAB软件结合润扬大桥工程实例说明了此法的有效性。     

暴雨和降水偏态系数分析

采用统一的统计参数计算方法分析计算了全国0.51万~1.36万个雨量站历时为10 min~3 d的暴雨资料、210个站历时为1 d~90 d和1 a的降水资料的偏态系数和变差系数比值R_sv。探讨了皮尔逊Ⅲ型频率分布曲线的R_sv特性;分析了R_sv的地域分布、R_sv与雨量历时的关系,并研究了对R_sv有影响的多个因子。研究表明,在目前资料条件下,不宜对各个地区各种历时的暴雨频率分析均采用单一的R_sv值(3.5)。     

Application of laser strainmenters to the study of earthquake physics

The paper considers possibilities of applying laser strainmeters for the study of earthquake physics. One of laser strainmeters is described. A high efficiency of using the laser strainmeters for the study of earthquakes and their precursors is shown. In records of the spaced laser strainmeters, anomalous deformations propagating from the east to the west with the speed comparable with that of migration of earthquakes were found.     

地-井TEM向量交会技术的实现和应用效果

这里介绍的地-井TEM向量交会法是一种地-井TEM资料半定量解释方法,通过采用异常分离技术从实测资料中提取出纯异常场,运用地-井TEM的纯异常响应进行向量交会,从而达到快速、有效地确定井旁盲矿体的深度、方位及矿体距钻孔距离。     

南极海冰变化异常与全球海平面变化(英)

In this paper, the long-term variation trend of the Antarctic sea ice in 1973～1994 and the inter-decade variation rule of the global sea level are analyzed. It is foundthat, the Antarctic sea ice area in 1980's was significantly less than in 1970's but with regional difference:decreasing in Regions Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲ, and increasing in Region Ⅳ, the average global sea levelheightvalue in 1980's was also significantly higher than in 1970's but also with very large regional difference.Connecting variation of both to analyze their physical mechanism, it is pointed that, the accumulated seaice anomaly value in 1980's less than in 1970's means a global climate warming, the sea watertemperature and air temperature rising, sea water volume expanding, and more icebergs transportingfrom the ice cover on the Antarctic continent to ocean in the warmer years. As a result, the global sealevel raised significantly with the global average sea level value in 1980's was 22 mm higher than in 1970's. The Sea Level Raising (SLR) distributed uneven. It is especially true in the Pacific Ocean andAtlantic. This kind of uneven SLR distribution closely relates to, or is introduced by the uneven sea ice change of the Antarctic Regions.     

赤道印度洋—太平洋地区海气系统的齿轮式耦合和ENSO事件 I.资料分析

利用历史观测数据,研究了印度洋海表温度（ＳＳＴ）的季节变化特征,证实赤道印度洋和东太平洋ＳＳＴ年际变化有显著的正相关,指出这种正相关是由于沿赤道印度洋上空纬向季风环流和太平洋上空Ｗａｌｋｅｒ环流之间显著的耦合造成的。这两个异常的纬向环流圈之间的耦合形式看起来很象是存在于赤道印度洋和太平洋上空的一对齿轮（简写为ＧＩＰ）,当一个作顺时向变化时,另一个则作反时向变化。文中还证明ＥＮＳＯ事件与ＧＩＰ的年际异常存在很好的对应关系,暖事件时ＧＩＰ为反向运转;冷事件时ＧＩＰ为正向运转;异常的ＧＩＰ的啮合点位于印尼群岛附近。对８０年代以来的ＥＮＳＯ事件的分析表明,每次事件前期异常的ＧＩＰ的啮合点首先出现在印度洋上空,然后逐渐传入太平洋,引起ＧＩＰ东侧的大气纬向风ｕ和ＳＳＴ同时发生异常变化。当这种风场和ＳＳＴ的异常变化发展东传到达赤道中东太平洋时,导致ＥＮＳＯ事件最终出现。本文由此指出印度洋上空纬向环流的异常可以通过印度洋和太平洋上空大气系统的齿轮式耦合去影响赤道中东太平洋的海－气相互作用并触发ＥＮＳＯ事件发生。     

Intrinsic spectra of the AXPs

Using direct measurements of photo-electric absorption edges, I derive the intrinsic spectra for the Anomalous X-ray Pulsars. In the past, the hydrogen column density, N _H had been found by fitting the X-ray spectra with a variety of simple continuum models. Since different models fit equally well, with different values of N _H, little is learned about the true column density or intrinsic spectra. Here, I measure the column densities in a model-independent way, and thus derive intrinsic spectra without first assuming what those spectra ought to look like. Particularly for the brightest source, 4U 0142+61, the column density can be determined accurately, and is a factor of 1.4 smaller that the typically N _H quoted. With this new value, the new intrinsic spectrum can be investigated anew, and shows a slight hint of a feature around 13 Å. To be emphasised, this is an empirical method with the minimum of assumptions, as is appropriate for these beguiling sources, the behaviour of which has mystifies astronomers for over a decade. This paper summarises the methods and conclusions to be published in the Astrophysical Journal by Durant and Van Kerkwijk (2006; see astro-ph/0606604).     

河口往复流中潮流不对称与推移质输沙的关系

潮流不对称现象是近岸潮波运动的基本特征之一,为了研究潮流不对称对推移质泥沙长期净输运的作用机制,首先在往复流情况下对Bagnold推移质输沙率公式(1966)由于不包含起动流速所可能导致的误差进行理论分析,进而由统计学中的"偏度"的概念出发,推导了河口潮流不对称与推移质输沙之间的定量关系。研究认为,虽然Bagnold推移质输沙率公式不包含泥沙起动流速,但是只要泥沙起动流速和最大流速的比值在一定范围内,则在理论上公式的计算误差是可以接受的。由偏度结合Bagnold公式导出了潮流不对称与推移质输沙之间的关系,表明推移质泥沙的长期净输运不仅与余流有关,而且与不同分潮组合之间、余流与分潮之间的相互作用紧密相关。该关系还给出了一个由潮流调和常数估算河口推移质输沙的简便方法。经对比,从潮流不对称出发估算推移质输沙与直接采用推移质输沙率公式结果一致。