Bayesian analysis of stage–fall–discharge models for gauging stations affected by variable backwater

Parsimonious stage–fall–discharge rating curve models for gauging stations subject to backwater complications are developed from simple hydraulic theory. The rating curve models are compounded in order to allow for possible shifts in the hydraulics when variable backwater becomes effective. The models provide a prior scientific understanding through the relationship between the rating curve parameters and the hydraulic properties of the channel section under study. This characteristic enables prior distributions for the rating curve parameters to be easily elicited according to site‐specific information and the magnitude of well‐known hydraulic quantities. Posterior results from three Norwegian and one American twin‐gauge stations affected by variable backwater are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The case studies demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian rating curve assessment is appropriate for developing rating procedures for gauging stations that are subject to variable backwater. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space

River discharge is currently monitored by a diminishing network of gauges, which provide a spatially incomplete picture of global discharges. This study assimilated water level information derived from a fused satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image and digital terrain model (DTM) with simulations from a coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model to estimate discharge in an un‐gauged basin scenario. Assimilating water level measurements led to a 79% reduction in ensemble discharge uncertainty over the coupled hydrological hydrodynamic model alone. Measurement bias was evident, but the method still provided a means of improving estimates of discharge for high flows. The study demonstrates the potential of currently available synthetic aperture radar imagery to reduce discharge uncertainty in un‐gauged basins when combined with model simulations in a data assimilation framework, where sufficient topographic data are available. The work is timely because in the near future the launch of satellite radar missions will lead to a significant increase in the volume of data available for space‐borne discharge estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal and inter-annual variations of the primary types of the Arctic sea-ice drifting patterns

Abstract Monthly mean sea ice motion vectors and monthly mean sea level pressure （SLP） for the period of 1979-2006 are investigated to understand the spatial and temporal changes of Arctic sea-ice drift. According to the distinct differences in monthly mean ice velocity field as well as in the distribution of SLP, there are four primary types in the Arctic Ocean： Beaufort Gyre＋Transpolar Drift, Anticyclonic Drift, Cyclonic Drift and Double Gyre Drift. These four types account for 81% of the total, and reveal distinct seasonal variations. The Cyclonic Drift with a large-scale anticlockwise ice motion pattern trends to prevail in summer while the Anticyclonic Drift with an opposite pattern trends to prevail in winter and spring. The prevailing seasons for the Beaufort Gyre＋Transpolar Drift are spring and autumn, while the Double Gyre Drift trends to prevail in winter, especially in Feb- ruary. The annual occurring times of the Anticyclonic Drift and the Cyclonic Drift are closely correlated with the yearly mean Arc- tic Oscillation （AO） index, with a correlation coefficient of -0.54 and 0.54 （both significant with the confident level of 99%）, re- spectively. When the AO index stays in a high positive （negative） condition, the sea-ice motion in the Arctic Ocean demonstrates a more anticlockwise （clockwise） drifting pattern as a whole. When the AO index stays in a neutral condition, the sea-ice motion becomes much more complicated and more transitional types trend to take place.     

Spatio-temporal distribution of net-collected phytoplankton community and its response to marine exploitation in Xiangshan Bay

To explore the spatial-temporal distribution of the phytoplankton community and evaluate the combined effects of marine resource exploitation, net-collected phytoplankton and physical-chemical parameters were investigated in the Xiangshan Bay during the four seasons of 2010. A total of eight phyla, 97 genera, and 310 species were found, including 232 diatom species, 45 dinoflagellate species and 33 other taxa. The phytoplankton abundances presented a significant (P<0.001) seasonal difference with the average of 60.66×10⁴ cells/m³. Diatoms (mainly consisting of Coscinodiscus jonesianus, Cerataulina pelagica, Skeleto n ema costatum, and genus Chaetoceros) dominated the phytoplankton assemblage in all seasons. We found great spatio-temporal variation in community composition based on the multidimensional scaling and similarity analysis. Canonical correspondence analysis show that temperature, nutrition, illumination, and salinity were the main variables associated with microalgal assemblage. Compared with the previous studies, an increase in phytoplankton abundance and change in the dominant species coincided with increased exploitation activities in this bay (e.g. operation of coastal power plants, intensive mariculture, tidal flat reclamation, and industrial and agricultural development). The present findings suggest that the government should exercise caution when deciding upon developmental patterns in the sea-related economy.     

Time–frequency analysis to profile hydrological regimes: application to Haiti

Abstract

Comprehensive characterization of its flow rates is prerequisite to a proper understanding and water management of a given hydrological region. Several studies question the soundness of stationarity in time series and suggest the need for a quantification of the events and non-stationary features in flow rate time series. In this study, we combine statistical and time–frequency (TF) analyses to characterize and classify the flow rates of an understudied region, namely Haiti. Wavelet transforms and cyclostationarity analyses were combined with principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to identify three groups of hydrological regimes in the country, suggesting similar management: (1) relatively stable flow rates with TF behaviour; (2) periodic and strongly seasonal flow rates; and (3) unstable flow rates. We argue that the TF methodology can yield additional information in regard to flow events and multiscale behaviour, even for short records. Flow rate characterization would benefit from the exhaustive approach described here.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Toth     

The ＂CO2-rich gas vents＂ of Mt. Amiata volcano （Tuscany, Central Italy）： Geochemistry,genetic mechanism and hazard evaluation

Mt. Amiata （Southern Tuscany, Central Italy） is an extinct Quaternary volcano located in an area still marked by high heat-flow that is caused by deep seated （6-10 km） hot masses related to Pliocene magmatic activity. The anomalous geothermal gradient gives rise, within the Mesozoic limestone formation （Tuscan series）, to geothermal systems that fed the Ca-SO4 thermal springs characterizing this area. Besides of thermal fluids, several cold, dry CO2-rich gas emissions seep out on the NE flank of the volcano. These gas vents mostly consist of large sub-circular craters at variable depth and diameter （5-15 m and 10-50 m, respectively）, and represent a serious hazard for the local population, as testified by the several asphyxia casualties that have been repeatedly occurred within these morphological depressions. In this work, the chemical and isotopic compositions of the Mt. Amiata ＂CO2-rich gas vents＂ and the estimation of both the CO2 flux from the soil and the CO2 distribution in air of their surroundings, has been carried out in order to： （1） assess the origin of gases, （2） recognize the mechanism of formation for these gas emissions and their relationship with local tectonics, and （3） to evaluate the CO2 hazard in the high flux emanations. The chemical composition of the gases is largely dominated by CO2 （up to 98 % by vol） and shows relatively high concentrations of N2, CH4 and H2S （up to 1.1%, 0.9% and 3.9 % by vol, respectively）. These features, coupled with the carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures, suggest that the origin of the main gas compounds may be related to the contribution of deep （i.e., thermometamorphic processes on carbonate formations for CO2） and shallow （i.e. thermal decomposition of organic material for CH4, N2 and H2S） sources.     

The annual period of the Earth’s seismic activity for 1964–2007

The catalog of the United States National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC, 2007) was used for a Fourier analysis of planetary seismic activity from 1964 to 2007 (401219 earthquakes with M ≥ 3 and hypocenter depths H ≥ 1 km) for the Northern Hemisphere (248291 events) and for the Southern Hemisphere (152928 events). The annual periodicity of weak earthquakes (M < 5.0) was verified with a high degree of reliability. All regularities (depending on the geographic latitude, hypocenter depths, and north-south asymmetry) revealed earlier (in 1964–1990) for this period are shown to exist for the period of 1964–2007.     

明渠规则断面流量测量方法研究

针时现有明渠流量测量方法的不足,提出一种规则断面明渠流量的自动测量方法-流速-水位法.首先基于断面流速分布经验公式,给出流速-水位法测量明渠断面流量的基本原理、计算公式及测量步骤;然后应用该法对某实际灌区的两个典型断面进行流量测量,并与流速-面积法的实测结果作对比,两者符合的较好,说明本文所提出的流速-水位法是准确可行的.实例应用成果表明,所提出的流速-水位法可用于规则断面明渠流量的自动测量.     

滕州市近50年气候干湿变化

利用滕州市1956~2005年降水量、平均气温资料,用Holdridge干燥度指数来分析近50年气候干湿变化趋势和特征。滕州市近50年来在年生物温度、年可能蒸散量极显著上升背景下,年降水量不显著的减小趋势,造成年水分盈亏量显著亏损及年干燥度指数显著增大,总体呈现暖干化趋势。年干燥度指数变化有明显的阶段性,干湿期交替变化,大体经历了3个湿期和2个干期。1976年年干燥度指数发生由偏湿向偏干的突变,突变后气候类型分布发生显著变化。通过对近50年年干燥度指数滑动平均值和标准差分析发现:随着干燥度指数平均值的增大,异常湿事件明显减少,而异常干事件明显增多,同时,随着标准差的增大,异常干湿事件频率明显增大。     

Effects of riverbed incision on the hydrology of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

The hydrogeomorphology of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) has been significantly altered by natural and anthropogenic drivers. In this study, the spatiotemporal changes of the flow regime were examined by analysing the long-term daily, monthly, annual and extreme discharges and water levels from 1980 to 2018, supported by further investigation of the long-term annual sediment load (from the 1960s to 2015), river bathymetric data (in 1998, 2014 and 2017) and daily salinity concentration (from the 1990s to 2015) using various statistical methods and a coupled numerical model. Then, the effects of riverbed incision on the hydrology were investigated. The results show that the dry season discharge (i.e., in March–June) of the Tien River increased by up to 23% from the predam period (1980–1992) to the postdam period (1993–2018) but that the dry season water level at My Thuan decreased by up to −46%. The annual mean and monthly water levels in June at Tan Chau and in January and June–October at My Thuan in the Tien River decreased statistically, even though the respective discharges increased significantly. These decreased water levels instead of the increased discharges were attributed to the accelerated riverbed incision upstream from My Thuan, which increased by more than three times, from a mean rate of −0.16 m/year (−16.7 Mm³/year) in 1998–2014 to −0.5 m/year (−52.5 Mm³/year) in 2014–2017. This accelerated riverbed incision was likely caused by the reduction in the sediment load of the VMD (from 166.7 Mt/year in the predam period to 57.6 Mt/year in the postdam period) and increase in sand mining (from 3.9 Mm³ in 2012 to 13.43 Mm³ in 2018). Collectively, the decreased dry season water level in the Tien River is likely one of the main causes of the enhanced salinity intrusion.