Flood Damage Reduction Program (FDRP) in Québec: Case Study of the Chaudiére River

This study presents the evolution of agreements between the governments of Canadaand Québec on flood damage reduction. In Québec, the implementation of a regulation about building in floodplains came about in 1983–1984. Today, this regulation takes the form of a policy called ``Policy of shores, littoral and floodplain protection'. Municipalities must adopt rules that concur with the principles of this policy.The Chaudiére River basin was selected for analysis of urban developmentduring the period following the application of building rules in flood-risk areas.Despite the ban on building in the strong current zone (0–20 year return periodflood zone), many buildings, essentially residential, have been erected in thiszone. These new constructions generally account for a low percentage of thetotal property value in the 0–100 year flooding area, but are legal since theyare connected to a water and sewage network that existed prior to the officialfloodplain regulation.Flood damage along the Chaudiére River will tend to increase for two reasons.Firstly, while respecting the policy mentioned above, sites are still available infloodplains for future development. Secondly, no structural flood protection workshave been erected in view of the fact they are only marginally profitable from anbenefit-cost point of view.     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

日照市短时冰雹定时-定点-定量预报

利用1960～2000年青岛、射阳、徐州3站08时探空资料及日照站08时地面气象资料，分析了日照地区出现的16次降雹天气的时空分布特征，在对降雹天气分型的基础上利用积云数值模式计算降雹因子，用降雹因子和单站要素因子建立历史降雹因子个例库，用历史实况资料建立实况个例库，用距离相似法实现日照地区短时冰雹定时、定点、定量的客观预报。     

冀鲁豫交界区地下流体模糊熵值的变化与地震的关系

采用概率化预处理方法，把冀鲁豫交界区地下流体多种观测项目的观测值转化为概率值时间序列，然后计算其模糊从属函数。在此基础上计算该区地下流体构成的信息源系统的模糊熵值，分析了模糊熵值变化与1983年山东菏泽Ms 5.9地震和1985年河北任县Ms5.0地震的关系。结果显示，在这两次中强地震前分别有明显的减熵异常过程，并且一次比一次明显，中强地震都发生在低熵值处，震后恢复到高熵值的变化过程。这可能反映了地下流体构成的信息源系统在地震孕育和发生过程中的减熵有序变化。通过研究认为，该区模糊熵值减到0.907为发震前兆异常警戒线，并且离中强地震发生的时间越近，减熵过程越大；震级越大，减熵过程越明显，减熵时间越长。     

柏井采空区地基注浆加固技术

通过目前国内外现有资料的对比研究，对严重影响石太高速公路修建和运营的柏井采空区采用压力注浆的方法，充填采空区上覆的裂隙冒落带，以达到加固地基的目的。灌注材料选用水泥和粘土，水固比为１：１．５，依据地面构造物不同，在桥涵地段采用１：０．８：０．７（水：水泥：粘土，下同）的配比，在边坡地段采用１：０．５：１的与比，在一般路段采用１：０．３：１的配比，灌注浆液的结石体在采空区及上覆的裂隙冒落带中充填率达     

东部欠发达地区特征,原因及对策——以沧州市为例

对东部欠发达地区的特征，原因进行分析和研究，不仅有助于这些地区经济早日腾飞，对中西部地区的开发与发展也会有较大的参考价值。本文以河北省沧州市为例，分析了东部欠发达地区的特征和原因，并在此基础上提出东部欠发达地区经济发展的对策。     

The transition from people''s property to private property: Consequences of the restitution principle for urban development and urban renewal in East Berlin''s inner-city residential areas

The constitutional decision to return to their original owners all real-estate property in East Germany that had either been expropriated or placed under state administration (the restitution principle) has had significant consequences for urban development and urban renewal. Experiences from East Berlin's innercity residential areas illustrate the effects on the state of repair of housing, the character of residential neighbourhoods, the tenants living in the areas affected, and the future structure of real-estate ownership. The case studies reveal a picture of a contradictory development of residential neighbourhoods, including shifting power relations and new polarizations, especially between tenants and landlords.     

The impact of tourism on coastal areas

The manifold influences of tourism on coastal areas are analysed from three different angles: (1) The development of seaside tourism including the changes of socio-economic and settlement patterns; (2) its cultural impact on the local population; (3) its environmental aspects. Point 1 is described with the help of a model showing four peripheries in space and time: (I) the North Sea and Baltic coasts since the 18th century; (II) Southern Europe during the 19th century; (III) the North African shores around 1950; (IV) the tropical oceans after 1965. Within every periphery, several phases (pioneer, domestic, international) can be distinguished according to the origin of tourists, the investment, the know-how etc. While the beginning of every phase is dominated from abroad, later-on national actors play an increasing role. This applies also to point 2, which refers mainly to developing countries. As for point 3, mass tourism may result detrimentally on water supply, sensitive coastal landscapes, socio-cultural identity etc. Among the questions to be raised are: How far are industrial societies responsible for any negative impacts of tourism, and what are the chances for, and a general consciousness on, a sustainable tourism development?     

河北省阳原县地质灾害调查与区划

结合地质灾害调查与区划项目中“以人为本”的思想，根据阳原县具体的地理情况、地质环境，分析引起地质灾害的主要因素，查明区内存在的地质灾害隐患，对地质灾害进行区划，划分出地质灾害危险区、易发区、稳定区，并依据区划结果提出治理阳原县地质灾害的切实可行的建议，指出在不同地质灾害区中采取不同处理措施。     

工程物探方法在浅海域地质调查中的应用

通过对浅层地震、浅地层剖面、旁侧声纳、海磁等近几年应用较广的物探方法及其工程实例介绍，指出物探方法在浅海域地质调查中的优点及不足。