基于GIS的宜昌市近50年来气温与降水时空演变规律研究

基于ArcGIS的Spatial Analyst Tools反距离加权平均方法,对宜昌市7个站点1960-2009年气温和降水日数据进行时空演变规律分析和空间化展示,结果表明:(1)宜昌市近50年年均气温为16.26℃,1977-2009年变化较为剧烈,各区均呈增温态势;代际变化与总体变化趋势相同,自20世纪80年代后...     

FluBiDi – a model to estimate flood based on runoff: validation using extreme and natural basin conditions

FluBiDi is a two-dimensional model created to simulate real events that can take days and months, as well as short events (minutes or hours) and inclusive laboratory tests. To verify the robustness of FluBiDi, it was tested using a previous study with both designed and real digital elevation models. The results highlight good agreement between the models (i.e. Mike Flood, SOBEK, ISIS 2D, and others) tested and FluBiDi (around 90% for a specific instant and 95% for the complete time simulation). In the simulated hydrographs, the discharge peak value, time to peak, and water level results were accurate, reproducing them with an error of less than 5%. The velocity differences observed in a couple of tests in FluBiDi were associated with very short periods of time (seconds). However, FluBiDi is highly accurate for simulating floods under real topographical conditions with differences of around 2 cm when water depth is around 150 cm. The average water depth and velocities are precise, and the model describes with high accuracy the pattern and extent of floods. FluBiDi has the capability to be adjusted to different types of events and only requires limited input data.     

1960-2012年西藏林芝气温和降水变化

基于1960-2012年日平均气温和日降水量数据,利用小波分析和Mann-Kendall突变分析方法,分析了西藏林芝气温和降水的变化特征。结果表明：林芝年平均气温增长速率0.028℃·a^-1;年平均气温受3~4 a尺度波动的影响,无明显主周期;年平均气温序列有3个突变点,分别是1972-1973年、1975-1976年和1977-1978年。年降水量增长率1.218 mm·a^-1;年降水量受4 a、10 a和20 a尺度波动的影响;有两个主周期,分别为2 a、19 a;年降水量序列有4个突变点,分别为1960-1961年、1965-1966年、1977-1978年、1982-1983年。     

近半个世纪来气候变暖背景下黄河流域潜在蒸散量的变化(英文)

According to the meteorological observation data of 72 stations from 1960 to 2010 in the Huanghe (Yellow) River Watershed, China, the long-term variations of potential evapotranspiration, calculated in the modified Penman-Monteith model of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, were presented, as well as the meteorological causes for the decrease of potential evapotranspiration were discussed. Since 1960, temperature has risen significantly and potential evapotranspiration a decreasing trend, which indicated the existence of "Evaporation paradox" in the Huanghe River Watershed. This phenomenon was not consistent spatially or temporally with the increase of temperature, potential evapotranspiration decreased in spring, summer and winter, mainly over most parts of Shanxi and Henan, and some parts of Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. During the recent half century, the trends of temperature and potential evapotranspiration were negatively correlated at most of the stations, while precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a contrary trend. Calculated in multiple regressions, the contribution to potential evapotranspiration change of related meteorological factors was discussed, including mean pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity and average wind speed. The decrease of wind speed in the Huanghe River Watershed may be the dominating factor causing potential evapotranspiration decreasing.     

基于航空客流的中国城市对外联系网络结构与演化

改革开放以来,经济全球化和快速城市化促进了中国城市外向型联系的发展,改变了中国城市对外联系的空间格局。越来越复杂化的城市空间分布和组织规律需要一个全新的、综合的网络视角来考察。航空运输是当前城市间相互联系的重要物质基础,体现了城市间的直接关系,是研究城市网络的合适工具。本文以中国城市对外的航空客运联系作为衡量城市关系的指标,借鉴社会网络分析中的2-模网络概念构建了中国城市对外联系网络,并对网络的结构特征和演化规律进行了分析。研究结果表明,中国城市对外联系网络存在北京-上海-广州的三中心结构。中心城市以外,西部城市上升势头迅猛,体现了网络多元化发展的趋势。此外,中国城市对外联系的主要对象逐渐从东南亚向东亚转移,并呈现出以首尔为核心的网络结构。同时,中国城市对外联系扩张以强化区域内部联系为主,洲际联系发展滞后。     

厦蓉高速公路某隧道洞口段开挖对仰坡变形影响的数值分析

针对一座浅埋偏压隧道,采用FLAC3D对该隧道进口段进洞开挖进行动态施工三维数值模拟。基于围岩应力分布特征,仰坡坡面轴向和横向位移的变化特征,分析了偏压浅埋隧道洞口段开挖引起的仰坡变形规律。计算结果揭示：仰坡后缘下沉,前缘向洞心外有移动趋势;隧道开挖引起隧洞洞身附近岩体出现较大应力集中和变形现象,洞口段洞身以上仰坡坡面主要以竖向沉降为主,洞身两侧向洞内挤压。在此基础上提出了保证仰坡稳定和安全进洞的一些建议。     

基于多参数指标的长江口滨岸多环芳烃来源辨析

在长江口滨岸及临近排污口、滨岸河流、城市中心城区采集悬浮颗粒物、表层沉积物、街道灰尘等样品, 分别利用GC-MS 和GC-C-IRMS 定量分析了不同环境介质中的多环芳烃 (PAHs) 与有机单体化合物稳定碳同位素(δ¹³C), 开展了基于PAH 环数、分子量特征比值和有机单体化合物稳定碳同位素组成等参数指标的长江口滨岸悬浮颗粒物与表层沉积物中PAHs 源解析研究。研究结果显示, 长江口滨岸悬浮颗粒物与表层沉积物中的PAH 化合物主要以3~4 环为主, 与吴淞排污口、石洞口污水处理厂、黄浦江、滨岸小河流以及上海中心城区等潜在来源区域不同环境介质中的PAHs 组成特征相似, 主要来源于汽油、柴油、煤炭和木材的不完全燃烧以及石油残余物的混合。其中, 木材和煤炭不完全燃烧形成的PAHs 以及石油残余物, 枯季经过滨岸河流及排污口直接输入, 洪季则为城市街道灰尘被暴雨冲刷, 随地表 径流最终汇入河口; 汽车排放(汽油、柴油不完全燃烧) 产生的PAHs 主要富集在城市交通区和商业区的街道灰尘中, 枯季借助区域盛行风迁移至河口区, 洪季则主要通过暴雨径流冲刷进入河口。     

MODELLING LONG‐TERM SUMMER AND WINTER BALANCES AND THE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY OF STORBREEN,NORWAY

Measurements of winter balance (b_w) and summer balance (b_s) have been carried out at Storbreen since 1949. Here we apply a simple mass balance model to study the climate sensitivity and to reconstruct the mass balance series priorto 1949. The model is calibrated and validated with data from an automatic weather station (AWS) operating in the ablation zone of Storbreen since 2001. Regression analysis revealed that b_w was best modelled using precipitation data southwest of the glacier. Results from the model compared well with reported mass balance values for the period 1949–2006, obtained correlations (r) for b_w and b_s varied between 0.83 and 0.87 depending on model set up. Reconstruction of the mass balance series for the period 1924/1925–1948/1949 suggested a cumulative mass deficit of c. 30 m w.e. mainly due to highly negative summer balances, but also lower b_wthan the average for 1949–2006. Calculated change in specific mass balance for a ±1°C change in air temperature was ±0.55 m w.e., whereas a ±10 % increase in precipitation represented a change of ±0.20 m w.e. Model results further indicated that for a 2°C warming, the ablation season will be extended by c. 30 days and that the period of ice melt at the AWS location will increase from c. 40 to c. 80 days.     

南海陆坡大型块体搬运体系的结构与识别特征

近年来的地质与地球物理调查发现,在大陆坡第四系中发育有大规模块体搬运体系(现今的块体搬运体系也称海底滑坡)。块体搬运体系是深水常见的一种沉积物搬运机制,主要包括滑动、滑塌和碎屑流等重力流过程及其沉积物。南海陆坡白云块体搬运体系面积逾10 000 km2,可划分为3个结构单元,即头部拉张区、体部滑移-挤压区和趾部挤压区。在地震剖面中,发育多种构造:正断层、杂乱反射、逆冲断层、挤压脊和褶皱等。块体搬运体系严重威胁深水设施安全,并可能诱发海啸,是海洋地质灾害之一。同时,块体搬运体系与海洋油气及天然气水合物关系密切,物源决定块体搬运体系的物性,泥质物源的块体搬运体系通常作为良好的油气盖层,砂质物源形成的块体搬运体系可以成为储层。     

The place of individuals in the politics of scale

Conceptualizations and re-conceptualizations of scale have been powerful tools for explaining spatial processes that transcend traditionally-bounded territories. Examining the role of individuals within a politics of scale can do even more to explain multi-scalar conflicts. This paper does so by examining struggles over airport expansion in the US, showing how an understanding of the various roles of individuals in the politics of scale – as sites of multiple scales, as actors constituting other scales, and as scales in and of themselves – better explains multi-scalar conflicts and offers more opportunities for resolving them.