CONTRIBUTION TO THE TRACER KINETICS THEORY

Abstract

This paper presents a new integrated GIS modelling methodology for assessing groundwater contamination risk. Analytical and numerical tools within a GIS framework were used to define the raster maps of various factors interfering along the contaminant pathway from source to groundwater. In the proposed methodology, these factors were introduced into a unified GIS model for groundwater risk assessment that incorporates all the necessary information to improve the accuracy of the results. Fifteen factors were considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the groundwater contamination risk areas. Some of these factors, such as artificial drainage and seepage velocity, had not been used previously in GIS groundwater risk mapping. The study area, the island of Crete in Greece, was divided into five regions characterized by different degrees of groundwater risk ranging from very low to very high. A sensitivity analysis was performed and the developed methodology was validated for different contaminants that were detected in groundwater of the island of Crete.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Varied impact of land use on water and sediment parameters in fish ponds of the Dombes agro-ecosystem,France

Abstract

Agricultural land use in the area of water bodies is generally considered to increase the nutrient status of the water body water and sediments, but is this also the case for already nutrient-rich fish ponds? We studied 83 fish ponds in the Dombes region, France, where 1100 ponds are located in a heterogeneous agricultural landscape. Different water and sediment parameters were analysed for ponds and in ditches after rainfall events. Land use was studied in the primary catchment of ponds and in a 100-m zone around ponds. Soil parameters of different land-use types were analysed and farmers interviewed about agricultural practices. Increasing cropping area in the catchment of the ponds is significantly correlated to higher PO₄ ^3- concentration of pond water and to a lower degree, also to NO₃ ^?, but only in certain years with higher rainfall and with a more uneven distribution in spring. Sediment parameters were not significantly influenced. High NO₃- concentration in the water of a ditch during significant rainfall events was found for a cropland dominated catchment.

Citation Wezel, A., Arthaud, F., Dufloux, C., Renoud, F., Vallod, D., Robin, J., and Sarrazin, B., 2013. Varied impact of land use on water and sediment parameters in fish ponds of the Dombes agro-ecosystem, France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 854–871.     

基于肥满度-最大养殖收益的底播养殖虾夷扇贝(Patinopecten yessoensis)养殖容量评估及养殖区区划

养殖容量评估是合理规划养殖区的基础。基于虾夷扇贝养殖生态系统模型,模拟了2006年12月至2017年11月不同放苗密度下底播养殖虾夷扇贝的生长情况。在考虑肥满度对虾夷扇贝养殖收益的影响下,计算最大养殖收益及其对应的最适放苗密度和养殖容量,并通过最大养殖收益及其年际差异的聚类分析结果进行养殖区区划。结果表明:考虑扇贝肥满度的养殖收益能很好的抵消扇贝品质对养殖收益的影响;底播养殖虾夷扇贝的养殖容量和最适放苗密度有明显的时空差异,獐子岛和小长山岛之间并向长海海域东北部延伸的条带海域是高收益区;中收益区在高收益区南北两侧;低收益区位于研究区西北部和南中收益区南部;研究区南部由于饵料匮乏导致扇贝生长缓慢,为不适宜养殖区。开阔海域养殖容量也是有限的,片面增加放苗密度并不能达到增产增收的效果。研究结果可为合理规划和管理养殖区提供参考。     

干旱灾害对农业技术效率的影响

干旱是影响农业生产最主要的自然灾害,探究干旱灾害对农业技术效率的影响机理,明晰灌溉水平与二者之间的逻辑关系,具有重要意义。基于全国27个省份2006—2020年的面板数据,运用随机前沿生产函数（SFA）模型测算农业技术效率,探讨农业技术效率的时空分布特征。在此基础上,采用固定效应和面板门槛回归模型,验证干旱灾害、灌溉水平与农业技术效率三者之间的关系。结果表明：农业技术效率总体呈现上升趋势,年均增长率达到1.09%,技术效率空间分布存在较大差异,西北和华北农业技术效率较低,华东和华中技术效率较高。干旱灾害对农业技术效率有显著负向影响,灌溉水平有利于农业技术效率的提升。当灌溉水平超过38.88%的门槛值时,会缓解干旱灾害对农业技术效率的负向影响。     

小农户融入农业产业链的选择偏好及异质性研究——以河南省为例

为更好地揭示小农户融入农业产业链的行为逻辑,基于河南省463户小农户的调查数据,运用选择实验法和混合Logit模型分析小农户融入农业产业链的选择偏好。结果表明:相对于龙头企业,小农户更倾向于以加入农民专业合作社的方式融入农业产业链,紧密的利益联结机制和政策扶持会显著提升小农户对农业产业链的融入意愿。小农户对龙头企业、农资供应服务、农业信贷服务、农业补贴的行为存在异质性。兼业情况、家庭年纯收入以及收入在村中所处水平是小农户行为异质性的重要来源,对小农户融入农业产业链具有显著的负向影响。     

华北平原玉米播种期和品种变化对冠层温度的影响及地表生物物理机理

通过改变陆—气界面的地表水热交换,农田管理变化是气候变化的重要反馈过程之一。华北平原玉米的播种期和有效积温发生了规律性变化,改变了叶面积指数(LAI)、地表反照率(α)、净辐射(R_n)、潜热(LH)和冠层温度(T_c)等,成为区域气候变化的重要反馈过程。论文利用SiBcrop模型模拟3种玉米情景(春玉米、夏玉米、潜在玉米)下的LAI、α、R_n、LH和T_c的季节动态。结果表明,春玉米具有早播种、早收获、早LAI峰值的特征;夏玉米具有晚播种、晚收获、晚LAI峰值的特征;潜在玉米具有早播种、晚收获、高LAI的特征。模拟情景之间LAI差异为±2.5 m²·m^-2;T_c差异为±0.5 ℃。地表反照率(α)和地表能量分配是决定情景之间T_c差异的决定因素,播种期推迟,以α升高的降温效应为主;有效积温增加,以LH分配增多的降温效应为主。春玉米具有最高的冠层温度,夏玉米和潜在玉米的冠层温度较低且差异很小。研究结果对于促进农田土地管理变化适应和缓解区域气候变化具有一定意义。     

Profoundly entwined ecosystem services,land-use change and human well-being into sustainability management in Yushu,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The nexus exploration among land use/land cover change, ecosystem services and human well-being has been increasingly crucial in the context of Future Earth....     

Interactions between European agricultural policy and climate change: a Slovenian case study

This article analyses the interactions between agricultural policy measures in the EU and the factors affecting GHG emissions from agriculture on the one hand, and the adaptation of agriculture to climate change on the other. To this end, the article uses Slovenia as a case study, assessing the extent to which Slovenian agricultural policy is responding to the challenges of climate change. All agricultural policy measures related to the 2007–2013 programming period were analysed according to a new methodological approach that is based on a qualitative (expert evaluation) and a quantitative (budgetary transfers validation) assessment. A panel of experts reached consensus on the key factors through which individual measures affect climate change, in which direction and how significantly. Data on budgetary funds for each measure were used as weights to assess their relative importance. The results show that there are not many measures in (Slovenian) agricultural policy that are directly aimed at reducing GHG emissions from agriculture or at adaptation to climate change. Nevertheless, most affect climate change, and their impact is far from negligible. Current measures have both positive and negative impacts, but overall the positive impacts prevail. Measures that involve many beneficiaries and more budgetary funds had the strongest impact on aggregate assessments. In light of climate change, agricultural policy should pay more attention to measures that are aimed at raising the efficiency of animal production, as it is the principal source of GHG emissions from agriculture.

Policy relevance

Agricultural policy must respond to climate challenges and climate change impact assessment must be included in the process of forming European agricultural policy. Agricultural policy measures that contribute to the reduction of emissions and adaptation, whilst acting in synergy with other environmental, economic and social goals, should be promoted. The approach used in this study combines qualitative and quantitative data, yielding an objective assessment of the climate impact of agricultural policy measures and providing policy makers with a tool for either ex ante or ex post evaluations of climate-relevant policy measures.     

Brazil's Amazon forest in mitigating global warming: unresolved controversies

Brazil's Amazon rainforest provides an important environmental service with its storage of carbon, thereby reducing global warming. A growing number of projects and proposals intend to reward carbon storage services. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is currently a key issue for negotiations on an international agreement that is to take effect in 2013. Various issues require decisions that will have substantial impacts on both the effectiveness of mitigation and the scale of Amazonia's potential role. These decisions include the effects that money generated from payments can have, the spatial scale of mitigation (e.g. projects or countries and sub-national political units), whether to have voluntary or mandatory markets, and whether these reductions will generate carbon credits to offset emissions elsewhere. It is argued that national-level programmes, combined with a national target under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, are the best solution for Brazil in terms of both capturing international funding and stimulating the major cuts in global emissions that are needed to minimize climate risk to the Amazon rainforest. The high likelihood of passing a tipping point for maintaining the Amazon rainforest implies the need for urgency in altering current negotiating positions.     

基于德尔菲法的江西省“三农”气象服务效益评估

利用江西省2012年统计年鉴和20个农业气象服务体系和农村气象灾害防御体系（简称＂两个体系＂）建设实施县的专家测评调查结果（针对农业、林业、牧业、渔业4大重点行业和电力、水利、交通3个高相关行业的调查结果）,采用德尔菲法（专家评估法）,对2010—2013年江西省＂三农＂气象服务效益进行分析评估。结果表明,2010—2012年江西省农业总产值气象服务贡献率稳定在4.00%—4.90%,2012年＂三农＂气象服务对农业总产值效益的新增贡献率为2.6%。2010—2013年＂三农＂气象服务效益评估值分别为76.04、108.14、104.36和116.07亿元,投入产出比为1：3.3—1：7.8,2013年3个高相关行业的产值贡献率为4.0%—5.0%。