天津市滨海新区芦苇湿地恢复适宜性评价

利用综合评价模型,结合地理信息系统技术的空间分析功能,以土地利用、土壤类型、坡度、降雨量和人类干扰活动作为评价因子,对天津滨海新区芦苇湿地恢复进行了适宜性评价。结果表明,较适宜开展湿地恢复的比例为21.46%,一般适宜比例为21.87%,不适宜比例占56.68%,其中较适宜湿地恢复的区域集中分布在北大港湿地自然保护区周边、独流减河下游、北塘入海口以及沿海滩涂,海河流域两侧也有零星分布。在适宜性评价基础上,对未来芦苇湿地恢复与建设的重点区域进行了成效预评估,芦苇对TC、TN、TP的年吸收通量约为1.3935×104、0.0258×104、0.0017×104t,能有效地减少入海排污压力和污染物对近岸海域环境质量的影响。研究结论可为天津湿地治理与生态恢复、土地利用结构调整、景观优化等提供理论依据和科学参考。     

海南岛橡胶割胶期的气候适宜度变化特征分析

选取海南省18个市县气象站19612017年逐日气象资料,构建逐月橡胶割胶单要素(温度、日照时数、降水量和降水日数、风速)和综合气候适宜度模型,分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:1)海南岛天然橡胶单要素适宜度对比排序:日照适宜度最高,降水和风速适宜度次之,温度适宜度最低。2)橡胶割胶气候适宜度为0.43~0.80,其中411月较高,适宜割胶;12月至次年3月较低,不适宜割胶。3)天然橡胶割胶适宜度高值区主要分布在海南岛中部地区,该区温度适宜度较高,降水量充足,年平均风速小;低值区主要分布在西部和北部沿海地区,该区主要因为年平均风速大,降雨量不足,易造成干旱;其余地区为适宜度次高值区,该区热量和降水都比较充足,但也容易受高温干旱或风害影响,应予以重点防范。4)19612017年海南岛橡胶割胶期气候适宜度总体呈明显增大趋势,气候倾向率为0.009/10a。     

Predicting suitable habitat for the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa (Scleractinia)

Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) was applied to the reef framework-forming cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa. The environmental tolerances of this species were assessed using readily available oceanographic data, including physical, chemical, and biological variables. L. pertusa was found at mean depths of 468 and 480 m on the regional and global scales and occupied a niche that included higher than average current speed and productivity, supporting the theory that their limited food supply is locally enhanced by currents. Most records occurred in areas with a salinity of 35, mean temperatures of 6.2–6.7  °C and dissolved oxygen levels of 6.0–6.2 ml l⁻¹. The majority of records were found in areas that were saturated with aragonite but had low concentration of nutrients (silicate, phosphate, and nitrate). Suitable habitat for L. pertusa was predicted using ENFA on a global and a regional scale that incorporated the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Regional prediction was reliable due to numerous presence points throughout the area, whereas global prediction was less reliable due to the paucity of presence data outside of the north-east Atlantic. However, the species niche was supported at each spatial scale. Predicted maps at the global scale reinforced the general consensus that the North Atlantic Ocean is a key region in the worldwide distribution of L. pertusa. Predictive modelling is an approach that can be applied to cold-water coral species to locate areas of suitable habitat for further study. It may also prove a useful tool to assist spatial planning of offshore marine protected areas. However, issues with eco-geographical datasets, including their coarse resolution and limited geographical coverage, currently restrict the scope of this approach.     

Spatial analysis of water quality and its suitability in farming giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) in Negeri Sembilan region,Peninsular Malaysia

Finding potential sites for resilient prawn production in the tropical environment that also prevents wastage of natural resources is not an easy task. The purpose of this study is to evaluate water quality suitability for prawn farming in Negeri Sembilan of Peninsular Malaysia based on Geographic Information System (GIS). To achieve this goal, numerous criteria including sources of water, water temperature, water pH, sources of pollution, salinity, soil texture and availability of phytoplankton criteria were considered for the modelling process. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was performed to standardize the criteria and the weighting process. The weighted overlay of indicators and results were accomplished by applying the Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method in GIS. It was indicated that the Negeri Sembilan area has potential for prawn farming. The results showed that about 25 per cent (163 056.93 ha) of the area was most suitable for prawn farming, about 58 per cent (384 656.88 ha) was considered moderately suitable, while 18 per cent (117 633.49 ha) was regarded as least suitable. The study concluded that the multi‐criteria decision analysis of water quality for prawn farming is vital for regional economic planning in the Negeri Sembilan area and also significant when establishing a model for aquaculture development.     

地域功能-结构的空间组织途径——对国土空间规划实施主体功能区战略的讨论

地域功能-结构的空间组织规律是人地系统耦合研究的基本理论问题,也是开展国土空间规划、塑造可持续地理格局的基础理论。从地理学对地理过程的重复、预测、调控、优化的讨论入手,阐释了空间治理体系是现代地理学用于调控和优化可持续地理过程与格局的重要途径。采用生态-生活-生产等三生空间构成的地域功能空间结构呈现的时空演变特征,表达了地域功能-结构的空间有序性法则,阐释了地域功能与自然地理环境相协调、同一地域单元各类功能及不同单元之间冲突最小化、地域功能在不同空间尺度有效传导、以及长时间尺度综合效益最大化等空间组织目标。从可持续性出发,建立自然要素的资源、环境、生态和灾害四大属性的概念,并通过四大属性集成构成自然承载力,分析承载力的原值、余量和潜力在空间规划中的作用,形成自下而上解析空间组织的基本方法。从新空间均衡出发,基于承载力、融入位置和空间结构参量后构成的地域功能适宜性,形成自上而下解析空间组织的基本方法。进而讨论了集成两种方法形成的主体功能区具备的对空间组织与规划的基础价值和战略价值,提出主体功能区的区划、战略、制度和规划用途分离及相互关联的新思路。以实施主体功能区战略为主线、以空间降尺度传导主体功能为核心科学问题、以关键约束参数为空间结构控制性指标,讨论了数据库与地域功能谱系、功能和尺度依赖的承载力评价方法与模型库、“三区三线”的建构框架,论证了空间规划实施主体功能区战略的途径,提出地理学应着力加强大、中空间尺度（区域性）国土空间规划基础理论和方法、强化技术等科技支撑体系建设的建议。     

国土空间规划中城镇空间和城镇开发边界的划定

在2016年国务院印发的《省级空间规划试点方案》所提出的“开展基础评价”和“绘制规划底图”两项主要任务中,城镇适宜性的评价与城镇空间、城镇开发边界的划定属于核心内容,同时也是一项具有较强探索性的工作。以国家对国土空间规划的基本设想为依据,对城镇空间和城镇开发边界的概念和内涵、空间关系、相关规则进行深入探讨,确定了城镇适宜性评价与城镇空间、城镇开发边界划定的主要思路和技术路线。结合福建省空间规划的案例,分析了城镇适宜性评价与城镇空间、城镇开发边界划定的过程、方法和结果。不同于以往各部门开展的空间性规划,城镇空间和城镇开发边界的划定建立在资源环境承载能力和国土空间开发适宜性的基础评价之上,这使得城镇开发建设活动的空间布局在资源环境本底方面得到合理保障,城镇空间和城镇开发边界的划定也有了较为科学、客观的依据。此外,把基础底图的研制与城镇发展潜能、城镇开发指向的评估,以及开发建设的规模管控、空间管控、开发强度管控系统地整合起来,使得规划底图的随意性得到了较好的控制。实践表明,本文的思路和技术方法是合理可行的,这一尝试可为空间规划理论和方法体系的完善提供参考。     

中国老龄事业发展水平时空演化及其与经济发展水平的空间匹配

基于“积极老龄化”理论框架,从健康、参与和保障三大维度构建中国老龄事业发展水平评价指标体系。以中国大陆31个省（自治区、直辖市）为研究对象,运用数理统计、重心和空间重叠性、空间错位分析和计量经济模型等方法,分析了2004—2016年中国老龄事业发展水平的时序变化、空间格局、错位特征及其影响机制。结果表明：① 2004—2016年,中国老龄事业发展水平整体快速增长,区域差异逐渐缩小,但区域失衡特征不容忽视。东部地区整体水平高于中部、西部及东北地区,并伴有“西部崛起,中部及东北地区塌陷”特征。东部地区呈现“两极化”现象。② 中国老龄事业基本处于低水平发展阶段,空间分布由西南-东北辐射递减模式转变为显著的“中部塌陷”式,形成一条由北向南的低值集聚带,纵贯中国中部,与区域经济发展存在错位关系。③ 负向错位区主要分布在黄河、长江中上游地区,正向错位区主要集中在东部沿海、长城以北等地区。空间错位强度存在显著的地域差异性,其中西部地区尤为显著。④ 老龄事业发展水平的动态变化是多因素交互作用的结果。经济发展水平、政府政策和行政导向及产业结构的时空分异对其产生正向影响。市场经济规模扩大和人口老龄化未对老龄事业发展起推动作用,与理论预期不符。家庭规模小型化的倒逼作用不显著。     

1990～2010年中国人口收缩区分布的时空格局演变——基于不同测度指标的分析

在人口收缩内涵界定的基础上,采用总人口和劳动力等直接指标结合出生率、老龄化率等间接指标进行综合测度,在地级尺度和县市尺度上分析了1990~2010年中国人口收缩区的数量变化、空间分布及演化特征（由于获取限制,未包含港澳台地区数据）,并对比了不同测度指标和方法之间的差异。主要的研究发现如下：①人口收缩区在数量上有明显的增长,收缩程度呈现出明显加剧趋势;②人口收缩区在中部和西部偏东地区快速扩张,川黔渝地区、长江中游地区、东北地区最为严重;③单一指标在识别人口绝对收缩方面效果较好,而且总人口指标往往比劳动力指标更早的反映一个区域的人口状况;④综合指标测度的方法能够更加全面的判断一个区域的人口发展状况,进而识别出人口处于相对收缩状态的区域;⑤人口收缩在县市尺度上比在地级尺度上表现更为明显,但两者的差异呈缩小趋势。基于以上研究发现,建议政府更加重视区域人口收缩问题及其对社会经济发展的影响。     

Modeling spatially non-stationary land use/cover change in the lower Connecticut River Basin by combining geographically weighted logistic regression and the CA-Markov model

Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.     

基于城市规划的城市地下空间开发适宜性评价探讨

随着城市化进程的持续推进,城市地下空间开发利用的重要性日益凸显。但各城市地下空间资源开发存在盲目性,未能与城市规划要求充分对接,亟须构建面向城市地下空间开发的适宜性评价体系。本文阐述了城市规划与地下空间开发间的关系,提出在城市规划指导下进行地下空间开发的重要性。针对不同的城市类型,需要采取针对性的探测技术,评价地质、环境、资源和技术经济等方面,并根据评价结果划分开发适宜性等级。研究认为,在城市规划指导下,运用开发适宜性评价体系,可以实现地下空间的有序可持续利用。