Simulations of strong ground motion in SW Iberia for the 1969 February 28 (Ms= 8.0) and the 1755 November 1 (M∼ 8.5) earthquakes – II. Strong ground motion simulations

This is the second paper of a series of two concerning strong ground motion in SW Iberia due to earthquakes originating from the adjacent Atlantic area. The aim of this paper is to use the velocity model that was proposed and validated in the companion paper for seismic intensity modelling of the 1969 ( M _s= 8.0) and 1755 ( M = 8.5–8.7) earthquakes.
First, we propose a regression to convert simulated values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) into Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) in SW Iberia, and using this regression, we build synthetic isoseismal maps for a large ( M _s= 8.0) earthquake that occurred in 1969. Based on information on the seismic source provided by various authors, we show that the velocity model effectively reproduces macroseismic observations in the whole region. We also confirm that seismic intensity distribution is very sensitive to a small number of source parameters: rupture directivity, fault strike and fault dimensions. Then, we extrapolate the method to the case of the great ( M = 8.5–8.7) 1755 earthquake, for a series of hypotheses recently proposed by three authors about the location of the epicentral region. The model involving a subduction-related rupture in the Gulf of Cádiz results in excessive ground motion in northern Morocco, suggesting that the source of the 1755 earthquake should be located further west. A rupture along the western coast of Portugal, compatible with an activation of the passive western Iberian margin, would imply a relatively low average slip, which, alone, would could not account for the large tsunami observed in the whole northern Atlantic ocean. A seismic source located below the Gorringe Bank seems the most likely since it is more efficient in reproducing the distribution of high intensities in SW Iberia due to the 1755 earthquake.     

High-resolution structures of the Landers fault zone inferred from aftershock waveform data

High-frequency body waves recorded by a temporary seismic array across the surface rupture trace of the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake were used to determine fault-zone structures down to the seismogenic depth. We first developed a technique to use generalized ray theory to compute synthetic seismograms for arbitrarily oriented tabular low-velocity fault-zone models. We then generated synthetic waveform record sections of a linear array across a vertical fault zone. They show that both arrival times and waveforms of P and S waves vary systematically across the fault due to transmissions and reflections from boundaries of the low-velocity fault zone. The waveform characteristics and arrival-time patterns in the record sections allow us to locate the boundaries of the fault zone and to determine its P - and S -wave velocities independently as well as its depth extent. Therefore, the trade-off between the fault-zone width and velocities can be avoided. Applying the method to the Landers waveform data reveals a low-velocity zone with a width of 270–360 m and a 35–60 per cent reduction in P and S velocities relative to the host rock. The analysis suggests that the low-velocity zone extends to a depth of ∼7 km. The western boundary of the low-velocity zone coincides with the observed main surface rupture trace.     

Identifying linear and non-linear behaviour in reduced complexity modelling output using surrogate data methods

Validation of model output is an important issue in the environmental sciences. This is particularly the case for reduced complexity modelling approaches where verification of the underlying equations is often problematic. Hence, methods that go beyond validation based on average values or the histogram of model output, are clearly advantageous. In this paper we show that a validation method based on the serial properties of time–space data, and developed in geomorphology, is a useful alternative but is nevertheless still insensitive to certain asymmetric characteristics of the signal. Hence, use of this method for validation may be enhanced by the adoption of an accompanying test for asymmetry in the model output.     

Reduced complexity strategies for modelling urban floodplain inundation

Significant advances in flood inundation modelling have been made in the last decade through the use of a new generation of 2D hydraulic numerical models. These offer the potential to predict the local pattern and timing of flood depth and velocity, enabling informed flood risk zoning and improved emergency planning. With the availability of high resolution DEMs derived from airborne lidar, these models can theoretically now be routinely parameterized to represent considerable topographic complexity, even in urban areas where the potential exists to represent flows at the scale of individual buildings. Currently, however, computational constraints on conventional finite element and volume codes typically require model discretization at scales well below those achievable with lidar and are thus unable to make optimal use of this emerging data stream.In this paper we review two strategies that attempt to address this mismatch between model and data resolution in an effort to improve urban flood forecasts. The first of these strives for a solution by simplifying the mathematical formulation of the numerical model by using a computationally efficient 2D raster storage cell approach coupled to a 1D channel model. This parsimonious model structure enables simulations over large model domains offering the opportunity to employ a topographic discretization strategy which explicitly represents the built environment. The second approach seeks to further reduce the computational overhead of this raster method by employing a subgrid parameterization to represent the effect of buildings and micro-relief on flow pathways and floodplain storage. This multi-scale methodology enables highly efficient model applications at coarse spatial resolutions while retaining information about the complex geometry of the built environment.These two strategies are evaluated through numerical experiments designed to reconstruct a flood in the small town of Linton in southern England, which occurred in response to a 1 in 250 year rainfall event in October 2001. Results from both approaches are encouraging, with the spatial pattern of inundation and flood wave propagation matching observations well. Both show significant advantages over a coarse resolution model without subgrid parameterisation, particularly in terms of their ability to reproduce both hydrograph and inundation depth measurements simultaneously, without need for recalibration. The subgrid parameterization is shown to achieve this without contributing significant computational complexity and reduces model run-times by an order of magnitude.     

Installation of a vertical slurry wall around an Italian quarry lake: complications arising and simulation of the effects on groundwater flow

Slurry walls are non-structural barriers that are constructed underground to impede groundwater flow or manage groundwater control problems. The study area is in the Piemonte plain (Italy), close to the River Po. Quarrying works carried out below the piezometric surface created two big quarry lakes. The local groundwater system is characterized by a lower semi-confined aquifer, which is overlain by a semi-permeable bed of clayey peat (aquitard) and an upper unconfined aquifer. Locally, the peat fades away and the granulometry of this horizon becomes silty sandy. A planned enlargement of the quarry will increase the size and depth of the quarry lakes. So the aquitard bed between the two aquifers will be damaged, creating a mixing rate of groundwater. Such a procedure would not be compatible with the presence of two municipal wells upstream from the quarries. Consequently, the installation of a vertical diaphragm (slurry wall) is recommended to separate the aquifers and to act as a filter for the groundwater flowing from the unconfined to the semi-confined aquifer. To predict the consequences caused by the installation of the vertical diaphragm separating the unconfined aquifer and the semi-confined one, a specifically adjusted finite-difference model was used. The model showed a maximum rising of the water table equal to 12 cm, just upstream of the diaphragm and for a distance of about 100 m, and a maximum lowering of 2 cm just downstream of the diaphragm. However, the slurry wall would not cause any change in the piezometric head in the area where there are municipal wells and, hence, will not have any negative effect on the functionality of the municipal wells. Moreover, the migration of water from the unconfined aquifer through the vertical diaphragm will stimulate a series of attenuation and auto-depuration processes of eventual contaminants. These processes are due to the higher crossing time that the groundwater flow takes to go through the vertical barrier (t _a = 96.5 days, whereas for the horizontal semi-permeable layer t _a = 9.6 days). So, the vertical diaphragm can be a resolutive element, representing a mediation and separation factor between the unconfined and the semi-confined aquifers along the border of the quarrying areas, and a protective barrier for the water quality of the quarry lake and the semi-confined aquifer.     

Inverse groundwater modelling in the Willunga Basin,South Australia

A new inverse technique for modelling groundwater flow, based on a functional minimization technique, has been used to calibrate a groundwater flow model of a subregion of the Port Willunga aquifer within the Willunga Basin in South Australia. The Willunga Basin is the location of extensive viticulture, irrigated primarily by groundwater, the levels and quality of which have declined significantly over the last 40 years. The new method is able to generate estimates of transmissivity, storativity and groundwater recharge over the whole subregion as a time-varying continuous surface; previous methods estimate local discrete parameter values at specific times. The new method has also been shown to produce accurate head values for the subregion and very good estimates of groundwater recharge. Its ultimate goal will be to provide a new and invaluable tool for significantly improved groundwater resource management. Supported in part by US National Science Foundation grants, DMS-0107492 and DMS-0079478.     

Core–mantle boundary deformations and J2 variations resulting from the 2004 Sumatra earthquake

The deformation at the core–mantle boundary produced by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake is investigated by means of a semi-analytic theoretical model of global coseismic and postseismic deformation, predicting a millimetric coseismic perturbation over a large portion of the core–mantle boundary. Spectral features of such deformations are analysed and discussed. The time-dependent postseismic evolution of the elliptical part of the gravity field ( J ₂) is also computed for different asthenosphere viscosity models. Our results show that, for asthenospheric viscosities smaller than 10¹⁸ Pa s, the postseismic J ₂ variation in the next years is expected to leave a detectable signal in geodetic observations.