Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.     

地下RC结构物地震响应特征土工离心试验的模拟

地下结构物抗震稳定性的研究具有重要实际意义。基于动态土工离心试验,应用有效应力法分析了不同水平地震作用下土层和地下RC结构物的最大水平位移、不同埋深的土层加速度和超孔隙水压力变化规律,以及结构物的破坏发展特征,并进一步与试验结果进行了相互验证和对比,取得了较好效果,为重要地下结构物的抗震设计提供了依据和参考。     

Assessment of boundary-element method for modelling a free-floating sloped wave energy device. Part 1: Numerical modelling

The boundary-element method has been widely used as a design tool in the offshore and ship building industry for more than 30 years. Its application to wave energy conversion is, however, more recent. This paper deals with the numerical modelling of a free-floating sloped wave energy device. The power take-off mechanism of the device consists of an immersed tube with a piston sliding inside. The modelling is done using the boundary-element method package WAMIT. The model is first worked out for the case where the axis of the tube is vertical. It is then derived for the tube inclined and successfully verified against numerical benchmark data. A companion paper presents results of a detailed comparison with a physical model study.     

Numerical modelling of deep sea air-lift

Deep sea air-lifting of solid particles from depth of 1600 m is simulated with a mathematical model of the three-phase flow in an upward pipe. The computations are carried out for an axisymmetric domain in a transient way. Phase distributions, pressure and velocity profiles together with flow rates for all phases are presented and analysed. The influence of the pipe diameter on the air-lift efficiency was studied for air-lift pipes of different lengths and found to be significant. The lifting efficiency increases with the increase of the pipe diameter due to the reduction of the wall friction influence on the flow. In addition, the efficiency also increases with the increase of the solid particles volume fraction at the inlet. The presented numerical model can be utilized during various stages of the design of the air-lift pumps to help answer fundamental questions on the process, and during their operation to select optimal process parameters and to address possible problems.     

Influence of the vertical distribution of cyanobacteria in the water column on the remote sensing signal

An increased intensity of cyanobacterial blooms and their potentially harmful effects have attracted the attention of environmental agencies, water authorities and the general public worldwide. Reliable operational monitoring methods of coastal waters, lakes and ponds are needed. Mapping of the surface extent of cyanobacterial blooms with remote sensing is straightforward, but recognizing waters dominated by cyanobacteria throughout the water column and quantitative mapping of cyanobacterial biomass with remote sensing is more complicated. Unlike most algae, cyanobacteria can regulate their buoyancy and move vertically in the water column. We used the Hydrolight 4.2 radiative transfer model and the specific optical properties of three species of cyanobacteria to study the impact of vertical distribution of cyanobacteria on the remote sensing signal. The results show that the vertical distribution of cyanobacteria in the water column has a significant impact on the remote sensing signal. This result indicates that developing remote sensing methods for quantitative mapping of cyanobacterial biomass is much more complex than quantitative mapping of an algal biomass that is uniformly distributed in the top mixed layer of water column.     

Modelling and mass balance assessments of nutrient retention in a seasonally-flowing estuary (Swan River Estuary,Western Australia)

An integrated mass balance and modelling approach for analysis of estuarine nutrient fluxes is demonstrated in the Swan River Estuary, a microtidal system with strong hydrological dependence on seasonal river inflows. Mass balance components included estimation of gauged and ungauged inputs to the estuary and losses to the ocean (outflow and tidal exchange). Modelling components included estimation of atmospheric (N fixation, denitrification) and sediment–water column nutrient exchanges. Gross and net denitrification derived using two independent methods were significantly correlated (r² = 0.49, p < 0.01) with net rates averaging 40% of gross. Annual nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads from major tributaries were linearly correlated with annual freshwater discharge and were 3-fold higher in wet years than in dry years. Urban drains and groundwater contributed, on average, 26% of N inputs and 19% of P inputs, with higher relative contributions in years of low river discharge. Overall, ungauged inputs accounted for almost 35% of total nitrogen loads. For N, elevated loading in wet years was accompanied by large increases in outflow (7x) and tidal flushing (2x) losses and resulted in overall lower retention efficiency (31%) relative to dry years (70%). For P, tidal flushing losses were similar in wet and dry years, while outflow losses (4-fold higher) were comparable in magnitude to increases in loading. As a result, P retention within the estuary was not substantially affected by inter-annual variation in water and P loading (ca. 50% in all years). Sediment nutrient stores increased in most years (remineralisation efficiency ca. 50%), but sediment nutrient releases were significant and in some circumstances were a net source of nutrients to the water column.     

A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

Predicting suitable habitat for the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa (Scleractinia)

Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) was applied to the reef framework-forming cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa. The environmental tolerances of this species were assessed using readily available oceanographic data, including physical, chemical, and biological variables. L. pertusa was found at mean depths of 468 and 480 m on the regional and global scales and occupied a niche that included higher than average current speed and productivity, supporting the theory that their limited food supply is locally enhanced by currents. Most records occurred in areas with a salinity of 35, mean temperatures of 6.2–6.7  °C and dissolved oxygen levels of 6.0–6.2 ml l⁻¹. The majority of records were found in areas that were saturated with aragonite but had low concentration of nutrients (silicate, phosphate, and nitrate). Suitable habitat for L. pertusa was predicted using ENFA on a global and a regional scale that incorporated the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Regional prediction was reliable due to numerous presence points throughout the area, whereas global prediction was less reliable due to the paucity of presence data outside of the north-east Atlantic. However, the species niche was supported at each spatial scale. Predicted maps at the global scale reinforced the general consensus that the North Atlantic Ocean is a key region in the worldwide distribution of L. pertusa. Predictive modelling is an approach that can be applied to cold-water coral species to locate areas of suitable habitat for further study. It may also prove a useful tool to assist spatial planning of offshore marine protected areas. However, issues with eco-geographical datasets, including their coarse resolution and limited geographical coverage, currently restrict the scope of this approach.